Archive for October, 2010


The Knesset’s festive plenum opening of the winter session was very predictable. It lasted four hours, as Speaker of the House Rivlin, Prime-Minister Netanyahu and Opposition Leader Livni all gave speeches. Rivlin and Netanyahu discussed how much the government accomplished during the 80-day recess while Livni talked about how the government did absolutely nothing. The government easily survived three no confidence votes with safe margins. No bills were discussed.

No Confidence Motions

Kadima’s, titled “The Netanyahu government’s failure politically, economically and socially,” was defeated 33-56, with 4 abstaining and 21 MKs not present.

Balad, Ra’am-Ta’al and Chadash’s, titled “The Settlement policy and failed talks,” was defeated 11-60, with 17 abstaining and 32 MKs not present.

Meretz’s, titled “The Israeli government’s policy regarding the continued freeze” was defeated 32-59, with 29 MKs not present.

The Knesset also voted on the speeches known as “announcements”

The goal of voting on the “announcements” was for the coalition rebuttal by coalition chairman MK Elkin (Likud) to the no-confidence motions to be accepted by the plenum. Equally as important was for the plenum to defeat the announcements/speeches given by four opposition MKs.

MK Elkin’s announcement (Likud) passed 54-38. The other four, mostly short speeches about the no confidence motions, were defeated. MK Pelsner ‘s (Kadima) was defeated 26-57, with 5 abstaining. MK Chanin’s (Chadash) was defeated 11-58, with 19 abstaining. MK Eldad’s (National Union) was crushed 3-65 with 20 abstaining. MK Gilon’s (Meretz) was defeated 34-60.

This week two polls carried out on the same day by different companies projected very different results. In the Magar Mohot (MM) poll the Likud displayed a seven seat lead over Kadima. The Haaretz Dialog (HD) Poll puts the gap between the two biggest parties at only one seat. Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu would jump to 21 seats in the MM poll, while the HD poll has Liberman’s party losing strength and grabbing just 13 seats. As usual the Haaretz poll gave Meretz more seats than any competing poll with 5, compared to just 2 in the MM poll.

32 (33) [27] Likud
31 (26 )[28] Kadima
13 (21 )[15] Yisrael Beiteinu
08 (09 )[13] Labor
10 (09 )[11] Shas
06 (05) [05] Yahadut Hatorah
06 (05) [07] Jewish Home/NRP combined with result for Nat’l Union but
running separately
05 (02) [03] Meretz
09 (10) [11] Arab parties

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats) based on the 69% that named a party. Current Knesset seats in [brackets] (For comparison – Telephone poll of a representative sample of 562 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute (headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Radio’s Hakol Diburim (It’s All Talk) program on 5-6 October and broadcast on 7 October in “( )”.)

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Are you satisfied with the performance of:
PM Netanyahu: Yes 40% No 47%
DM Barak: Yes 27% No 62%
FM Liberman: Yes 34% No 54%

Who can best manage the negotiations with the Palestinians?

Netanyahu 37% Livni 25% Liberman 9% Barak 8%

Who can best take care of Israel’s security interests?

Netanyahu 32% Livni 16% Liberman 16% Barak 14%

Should Netanyahu accept the US proposal to extend the freeze in exchange for security and diplomatic benefits? Yes 50% No 42%

How have the things that former PM Olmert wrote impacted how you feel about DM Barak?
No change 50% Worsened 23% Improved 6%

Did the Liberman address at the UN strengthen or weaken your support for him?

Strengthened 33% Weakened 45%

Did his remarks strengthen or weaken Israel standing in the world?

Strengthened 19% Weakened 63%

Should Netanyahu fire him in the wake of the address? Yes 33% No 57%

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Haaretz-Dialog survey of 514 Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) 6 October as published in Haaretz on 8 October 2010. Survey error +/- 4.3 percentage points.

_______________________________________________________________

Your thoughts?

A new Maagar Mohot poll ordered by Israel Radio paints a clear picture of how Israel’s public opinion changed over the Knesset’s 80 day summer recess. According to the poll, the Right would jump to 73 seats, compared to the Left’s 37 seats, while the Arab parties receive 10 seats.  If elections were to be held today only the Likud and Liberman’s Yisrael Beitanu parties would gain seats, while the other parties would either drop seats or would retain their current number.

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats) based on the 69% that
named a party.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

33 [27] Likud
26 [28] Kadima
21 [15] Yisrael Beiteinu
09 [13] Labor
09 [11] Shas
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah
03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
02 [03] Meretz
02 [04] Nat’l Union
10 [11] Arab parties

_____________________________________________________________

Do you support or oppose the continuation of the freeze on Jewish
construction in the area of Judea and Samaria for sixty days today in return
for the receipt of guarantees and incentives from the United States?
Total: For extending 45% Against 42%
Among those planning now to vote Likud: For 44% Against 47%

Who is more appropriate to be prime minister, Netanyahu or Livni?
Netanyahu 48% Livni 23% Don’t know, Neither, Other replies 29%

_____________________________________________________________

Telephone poll of a representative sample of 562 adult Israelis (including
Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute (headed by
Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Radio’s Hakol Diburim (It’s All Talk)
program on 5-6 October and broadcast on 7 October. Statistical error +/- 4.5
percentage points.

11 MKs voted on the issue in the House Committee and did not see a reason to bring it to a plenum vote. 3 Likud MKs, 3 Shas MKs, 2 Untied Torah Judiasm MKs, 1 Kadima MK, 1 Yisrael Beitanynu MK and 1 Jewish Home MK voted for the extension. There were also representatives from Meretz, Jewish Home and Kadima in the meeting.

The Parties that did not have representatives in the committee: Labor, National Union and the three Israeli Arab parties.

נכחו:
חברי הוועדה:
יריב לוין – היו”ר
רחל אדטו
זבולון אורלב
משה גפני
דני דנון
יצחק וקנין
נסים זאב
מנחם מאיר מוזס
אברהם מיכאלי
ציון פיניאן
דוד רותם

עו”ד סהר פינטו – יועץ משפטי, קדימה
תמי כנפו – סיעת הבית היהודי
רונית חייקין-יעקבי – סיעת מרצ

http://www.knesset.gov.il/protocols/data/html/knesset/2010-07-12.html

Somebody forgot to tell me that the MKs extended their recess for another week to Oct 11th. That raises the summer vacation to an even 80 days.