Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Smith conducted a poll that was broadcast by Reshet Bet Radio on Oct 4 2016.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [30] Likud

21 [11] Yesh Atid

13 [24] Zionist Union

13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

12 [08] Bayit Yehudi

08 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [10] Kulanu

07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [07] Shas

06 [05] Meretz

67 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition

53 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Keevoon Global Research conducted a poll of 1,140 people on Oct 31-Nov 2 with a 3% margin of error for the iVoteIsrael NGO that was published on Nov 3 2016.

Estimates put the final number of Israeli voters who participated in US election at about 30,000.

Which candidate did you vote for President?

49% Trump, 44% Clinton, 5% Other/abstain, 2% Johnson, 0% Stein

Vote by age: Clinton leads with 18-24, 25-34 and 35-44 brackets. Trump leads with 45-54, 55-64 and 65+ brackets. Clinton best is 25-34 and Trump best is 65+.

Vote by gender:

Males: 59% Trump, 33% Clinton, 8% Other
Females: 52% Clinton, 42% Trump, 6% Other

Vote by religiosity:

Secular: 75% Clinton, 22% Trump, 3% Other
Traditional: 54% Clinton, 40% Trump, 6% Other
Religious: 63% Trump, 27% Clinton, 10% Other
Ultra-orthodox: 85% Trump, 11% Clinton, 4% Other

What is your party affiliation?

33% Democrat, 27% Republican, 22% Don’t remember, 18% Independent or no party

Dem registered voters: 72% Clinton, 25% Trump, 3% Other
GOP registered voters: 83% Trump, 10% Clinton, 7% Other
Independents/not registered with party: 45% Trump, Clinton 44%

Top 10 States Breakdown:

35% New York: Trump 52%, Clinton 39%, Other 9%
10% New Jersey: Trump 62%, Clinton 28%, Other 10%
8% California: Trump 52%, Clinton 41%, Other 7%
6% Maryland: Trump 58%, Clinton 38%, Other 4%
6% Pennsylvania: Clinton 55%, Trump 43%, Other 2%
5% Illinois: Clinton 62%, Trump 29%, Other 9%
5% Florida: Trump 61%, Clinton 39%, Other 0%
4% Ohio: 44% Trump, 44% Clinton, 12% Other
4% Massachusetts: Clinton 63%, Trump 26%, 11% Other
4% Michigan:  Clinton 53%, Trump 47%, Other 0%

What is the most important issues that influenced your vote for President?

43% Foreign Policy including Israel, 31% Other, 10% Influence on the Supreme Court, 7% Jobs/Economy, 6% Terrorism/National Security, 2% Healthcare, 1% Illegal Immigration

Foreign Policy voters: 64% Trump, 17% Clinton. Other: Clinton voters 54%.

What was the main quality or reason you considered in your choice for President?

49% Danger of electing other candidate, 11% Experience in government, 10% Leadership, 9% Character, 8% Vision, 6% Experience in business/Political outsider, 6% Other, 0% Endorsements/Campaign advisers

Trump voters: 60% Danger of electing other candidate, 12% Experience in business/Political outsider, 9% Leadership, 9% Vision, 6% Other, 3% Character, 0% Experience in government, 0% Endorsements/Campaign advisers

Clinton voters: 39% Danger of electing other candidate, 25% Experience in government, 14% Character, 11% Leadership, 7% Vision, 3% Other, 1% Experience in business/Political outsider, 0% Endorsements/Campaign advisers

Regardless of who you voted for, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of:

Pence: 43% Favorable, 27% Unfavorable, 30% Don’t know (+16)
Clinton: 34% Favorable, 64% Unfavorable, 2% Don’t know (-30)
Trump: 32% Favorable, 65% Unfavorable, 3% Don’t know (-33)
Kaine: 23% Favorable, 36% Unfavorable, 41% Don’t know (-13)

Immigration to the United States was a major campaign issue during this election. Which comes closer to your view? Immigrants today…

40% Strengthen the US through hard work and talents, 29% Represent a threat to US national security, 19% Don’t know, 12% Are a burden to the US by taking jobs, housing and healthcare

When it comes to U.S. foreign policy, what do you think is the most important issue that the new President should focus on?

54% Fighting global terror, 18% Iranian nuclear threat, 9% Other, 8% Military involvement in Ukraine and Syria, 6% Protect the US against cyber-attacks, 3% Palestinian peace process, 2% North Korea nuclear threat

Few Additional findings:

Note #1: 72% of Clinton voters voted the same party as President for Senate/Congress compared to 59% for Trump voters. 1% Only voted for Senate/Congress and not President. 5% don’t remember what they did.

Note #2: The worst on the Favorable/Unfavorable is the outgoing President. A majority found President Barack Obama unfavorable including 51% who found him very unfavorable.

Note #3: A majority opposes the P5+1 Iran Nuclear Deal Framework Agreement including 64% who oppose it strongly. Just 8% don’t know or have a position on the issue.

Note #4:  Israelis think that funding for the iron dome missile defense program is more important than preventing Iran from obtaining Nuclear weapons.

Question to 197 respondents who registered but did not vote: What was the main reason you did not vote in this election?

50% Did not get my ballot on time, 21% Didn’t like either presidential candidate, 17% Other, 8% Voting wasn’t worthwhile in my state, 4% Both candidates were equally good/bad

Exit Polls in 2008 and 2012:

2008: 76% McCain, 24% Obama
2012: 85% Romney, 14% Obama

Demographic breakdown:

Gender: 50% Male, 50% Female
Age: 28% 61+, 25% 55-64, 17% 25-34, 14% 45-54, 12% 35-44, 4% 18-24
Are you a: 90% Israeli citizen, 7% Permanent resident, 2% Tourist, 2% Student
How long have you been in Israel: 58% 15+ years, 19% 8-14 years, 15% 4-7 years, 6% 1-3 years, 2% Less than a year
How do you define yourself: 50% Orthodox, 18% Secular, 16% Traditional, 8% Ultra-orthodox, 6% Prefer not to answer, 2% Not jewish
Where do you live: 52% Jerusalem/Mevasseret/Gush Etzion/Beitar/Bet Shemesh/Maale Adumim, 30% Tel Aviv/Modiin/Raanana/Hertzliya/Ariel/Rechovot/Petach Tikva/Netanya, 8% Other, 8% Haifa/Tiberius/North, 2% Beer Sheva/Eilat/South

Midgam conducted a poll for the Knesset Channel that was broadcast on Oct 27 2016.

Did the Iraqi Military takeover of Mosul advance the destruction of the ISIS State?

44% Yes, 36% No, 19% Don’t know

Did the Iraqi Military takeover of Mosul weaken the opposition to Assad in Syria?

45% No, 30% Don’t know, 25% Yes

In the long term will the dream of Islamic extremists to create an Islamic State according to the laws of the Koran disappear or remain?

66% Remain, 22% Disappear, 12% Don’t know

What will happen to the Islamic State of ISIS as a result of the coalition efforts to destroy it through the help of the Iraqi and Kurdish armies?

40% Weaken, 20% Won’t change, 19% Don’t know, 12% Destroy, 9% Strengthen

Is the fight between Shiites and Sunnis in Islamic states utilized enough by Israeli Hasbara?

47% Not at all, 23% Utilized a little but enough, 22% Don’t know, 7% Utilized enough

Are the Muslim refugees that are going from Syria and ISIS to Jordan endangering the stability of the Jordanian Government?

57% Yes, 22% No, 21% Don’t know

Are the United States and the other western states doing enough to strengthen the moderate Muslims in Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States?

51% Not enough, 24% Not at all, 17% don’t know, 8% Enough

Midgam conducted a poll of 512 Haredim for Mishpacha (Family) Magazine that was published on Oct 12 2016.

Which Party will you vote for in the next elections?

62% UTJ, 13.6% Shas, 9.8% Don’t know, 6.4% Different Haredi party, 4.7% Don’t vote, 3.5% Non-Haredi party

Among Haredi Ashkenazim: 82.8% of Lithuanians (Degel HaTorah) will vote UTJ compared to 74.5% of Hasidim (Agudat Yisrael). Overall 2.5% of Haredi Ashkenazim will vote Shas.

Among Haredi Sephardim: 52.8% Shas, 17% Undecided, 10.2% A Haredi Party that is not Shas or UTJ, 10% UTJ and 10% won’t vote or will vote for a non-Haredi party.

Which Haredi politician are you most satisfied with?

28.2% Litzman, 20.8% Gafni, 7.1% Parush, 6.9% Deri

Additional Note #1: Degel HaTorah is close to 60% of UTJ voters compared to a little over 40% for Agudat Yisrael.

Additional Note #2: Agudat Yisrael breakdown: 13.7% Shlomi Emunim Faction (Deputy Minister Porush), 11% Central Faction (Minister Litzman), 5.7% Belz (MK Eichler), 2.4% Vizhnitz (MK Moses).

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 503 people on October 19-20 2016 with a 4.5% margin of error for Radio Tel Aviv that was published by the Jerusalem Post on Oct 24 2016.

Which of the candidates for President of the United States of America does the Israeli media cover more favorably?

34% Clinton, 24% Don’t know, 21% Both candidates equally, 21% Trump

Among those with an opinion: 45% Clinton, 28% Equally, 27% Trump

Jews: 40% Clinton, 30% Equally, 30% Trump

Arabs: 66% Clinton, 19% Equally, 15% Trump

Which of the candidates for President of the United States of America will better serve the State of Israel’s interests: Clinton or Trump?

37% Don’t know, 34% Trump, 29% Clinton

Among those with an opinion: 54% Trump, 46% Clinton

Jews: 51% Trump, 49% Clinton

Arabs: 74% Trump, 26% Clinton