Poll of representative sample of 500 Israeli adults carried out by Geocartography Knowledge Group – Prof. Avi Degani – this week for Israel Television Channel One’s Politika program. results broadcast on 15 February 2011
If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats) Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
31 [28] Kadima
26 [27] Likud
17 [15] Yisrael Beiteinu
11 [11] Shas
06 [13] Labor
06 [03] Meretz
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] National Union
03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
11 [11] Arab parties
[none of the 500 people polled said that they would vote for Ehud Barak’s
party]
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Based on these numbers would Kadima be able to pull off a realistic coalition? How many seats are required to form a government, 51%? 56 seats+?
Mikey, the minimum coalition is 61 seats.
Livni’s best shot would be a Kadima-Labor-Meretz-UTJ-Shas coalition of 59 seats, with a safety net from one of the Israeli Arab parties (such as Hadash) that could put her at 62.
No way you can put in the same gouvernement Meretz/Hadash on one side and UTJ/Shas on the other. And with the recent attacks on haredim by Kadima, they will always prefer the Likud.
Squall, I agree that it is unlikely but it is still possible. In politics stranger things have happened, remember National Union and Labor sat together in Sharon’s government.
Yes that was possible under Sharon gov because he is, or actually became, a centrist and because the the Likud was weak. Today you have a strong right wing bloc (Likud + YB + NRP) with 50 seats in all recent polls.
Sharon was elected in 2001 in a special election when the Likud had just 19 seats, but he was re-elected in 2003 with 38 seats (40 seats, after Sharansky’s party merged their two seats into the Likud).
Likud’s 40 + Tommy Lapid’s (Shinui) 15 gave Sharon an easy 55 seats to start building his government. Although he didn’t need to, Sharon chose to include National Union and Labor in both of his governments.
On 06/06/2004 National Union Ministers Lieberman and Elon, along with Deputy Minister Hendel were fired before the government vote on the disengagement. On 23/11/2005 Labor left the government two days after Sharon formed Kadima.
Once again, it is most likely that according to recent polls Netanyahu would form the next government. I was simply pointing out that stranger things have happened.
Good points. On a semi-related point, which ‘far’ right party, UTJ or National Union, got left out of Likud’s current government and what’s the word on the street, are they bitter toward bibi and likud?
Also, has there been any progress of making it a requirement to hold a national referendum before any land is exchanged or given up in ‘peace’ negotiations?
I don’t view UTJ as a far-right party, they were a part of Olmert, Sharon and Barak’s governments. They are also a coalition partner of the current government.
National Union was left out of the coalition on Barak’s demand, despite a signed agreement between the NU and Likud. Most of the NU’s bills have been opposed by the government and the NU has voted against various coalition bills.
The National Referendum Bill on the Golan and eastern Jerusalem passed about three months ago. Judea and Samaria remain outside of the current bill. Below is a link to the post that discusses the bill in detail.
Thanks, it was interesting to read individual MKs statements on the legislation. Its too bad there are so many MKs that do not believe in direct democracy. The bill is a good start but I hope they do more to make it permanent and include all israeli land. Politically speaking, the left wing parties can benefit from a national referendum. If people knew that land could not be traded away so easily they may be more willing to vote for parties with a weak national security agenda but that they might like otherwise. Just a thought. Anyway, keep up this fascinating blog.
Will do. Thanks for the support 🙂