First poll after Lapid presents first draft for the budget
Panels conducted a poll broadcast on Knesset Channel May 13 2013.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
26 [31] Likud Beitenu
20 [15] Labor
16 [19] Yesh Atid
13 [12] Bayit Yehudi
10 [11] Shas
08 [06] Mertez
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
03 [00] Strong Israel
02 [02] Kadima
02 [00] Am Shalem
60 [61] Right-Religious
60 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
should not bayit yehudi be able to pull more seats from likud and even gain e.g. 20-25 seats? i mean, after all this talk about bibi blocking construction?
This poll shows 4 seats (1 to Bayit Yehudi, 3 to Strong Israel) going to the right of Likud Beitenu.
y well, i was just thinking that when, i guess it was 29/31 Likud-Beiteinu MK, do not partly support a withdrawal from Yesha, then should not more seats move to Bayit Yehudi and not to Strong Israel (as the new electoral reform law will probably mena that Strong Israel will not pass the threeshold)
and i further wonder how these numbers would change when the new electoral reform law has raised the threeshold to 4% (=5 seats???) so that Movement, arab parties, Kadima, am shalem and Strong Israel does not mae it into Knesset. these seats has to somehuw be shared by the remaining parties and in that case, how many seats Bayit Yehudi would grab.
This is a good question, changing the threshold means also changing how people choose a party when they vote. For example, an israeli arab voting for Raam, Taal or Balad might choose Hadash or even Meretz or Labor because he’s afraid to waste his vote on a smaller party. Another one would simply not vote. It wont be just “maths”.
assume:
1. am shalem is “more” religious zionism than hareidi
2. strong israel would join bayit yehudi
3. if netanyahu continues to try to play these construction freeze-games, bennett would be able to convince some likud-beiteinu MKs (maybe 7-12) or at least voters worth that amount to join bayit yehudi
4. the arab parties would merge into one party
5. there are still voters who do not wont to wote left (labor, meretz …) or right (likud-beiteinu, bayit yehudi …)
result (one possibility):
likud-beiteinu 22
bayit yehudi 26
arab parties 12 (one single party)
meretz 7
labor 20
Shas 10
UTJ 7
center 16 (merger of: rest of Yesh atid, movement, kadima)
from these numbers one could get a real zionist government that would build for real in Yesha, not a government where netanyahu tries to please Obama al the time