Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Three Yediot Ahronot telephone polls were conducted by Dahaf on January 9, 2012, and published the next day. The first measures the current Knesset parties along with the Lapid, Deri and Green parties. The second is similar to the first, with MK Mofaz leading Kadima. The third poll measures support if Lapid led Kadima. The nationalist camp would enjoy a majority of 61 seats if Livni heads Kadima and 62 if Kadima is led by Mofaz. The third poll has the nationalist camp at 58 seats compared to the Center-Left-Arab coalition at 57, and supposedly Deri could play kingmaker with the five other seats. The Arab parties are unlikely to join a Lapid or Kadima government. It appears from all three of these polls that the new parties would chip away at the right majority of 65 but would fall short of preventing the Right the opportunity to form the next government.

Scenario #1 Poll:

28 [27] Likud
15 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
13 [28] Livni Kadima
13 [08] Labor
11 [—] Yair Lapid Party
06 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [—] Aryeh Deri Party
04 [03] Meretz
04 [03] Jewish Home
02 [04] National Union
00 [05] Independence
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
02 [—] Greens

Scenario #2 Poll:

28 [27] Likud
16 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
14 [08] Labor
14 [—] Yair Lapid Party
08 [28] Mofaz Kadima
06 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [—] Aryeh Deri Party
04 [03] Meretz
04 [03] Jewish Home
02 [04] National Union
00 [05] Independence
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
02 [—] Greens

Scenario #3 Poll:

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
29 [28] Kadima with Lapid
27 [27] Likud
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
12 [08] Labor
05 [—] Party lead by Arieh Deri
33 [42] Other Parties

Two Maariv telephone polls were conducted by Teleseker on January 9, 2012, with 550 respondents. The first poll listed the current parties and the newly announced Yair Lapid party, and the second scenario poll added Aryeh Deri’s party. The polls showed that the nationalist camp would net 62 seats if Deri’s Party doesn’t run and 59 if it does.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

Scenario #1 Poll:

27 [27] Likud
18 [08] Labor
15 [28] Kadima
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
12 [—] Yair Lapid Party
08 [07] National Union and Jewish Home
08 [11] Shas
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
03 [03] Meretz
00 [05] Independence
10 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad

Scenario #2 Poll:

26 [27] Likud
17 [08] Labor
15 [28] Kadima
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
12 [—] Yair Lapid Party
08 [07] National Union and Jewish Home
07 [11] Shas
04 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [—] Aryeh Deri Party
03 [03] Meretz
00 [05] Independence
10 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad