An internet based poll by the Panels Polling Company on Decemeber 12, 2011, offers an explanation for why Prime Minister Netanyahu decided to call for early primaries for the Likud chairmanship. According to the poll Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud would gain five seats and enjoy a 13-seat lead over second place Kadima. Labor drops from the second largest party position in recent polls to third and would win only four more seats than it had under Defense Minister Barak in 2009. Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman drops to 13 seats in this poll and is a main reason his party is against calling for early elections. The poll only showed the results for the four largest parties and chose not to show the results of the other nine parties currently represented in Knesset. The poll does show that the four larger parties would gain three seats from its smaller counterparts.
If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats)
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
32 [27] Likud
19 [28] Kadima
17 [08] Labor
13 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
39 [ 42] Other Parties
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
so i notice on haaretz that a poll comes out that shows the left would gain a majority in the next election. where’s the post, jeremy?
I post every poll that I see and have published many Haaretz polls. The latest Haaretz poll doesn’t disclose what each party would get and I am waiting to hear back from an email I sent Haaretz asking them to disclose their full results. It is important to understand that the poll is a scenario poll, measuring what would happen in the case Yair Lapid starts a party. In the scenario poll, the left would be able to enjoy a majority of 63 seats if it included the three Arab parties that have never joined an Israeli government before. In the scenario poll, Likud remains the largest party and the poll gives the right 57 seats. This makes it an easier job for Likud to form a coalition with Lapid’s party or Kadima along with the right. I will have a post up tomorrow on the poll and hopefully Haaretz gets back to me so I can give you a better analysis.