Archive for March, 2019


Important Note #1: KnessetJeremy.com celebrated our 9th anniversary this week.
Important Note #2: The deadline for publishing polls is on Friday. The final polling average and prediction will be released on that date.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Sunday March 30th 2019.

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChangeWeek 13 AVGCurrent
1stBlue & WhiteGantz3130.50.230.311
2ndLikudNetanyahu2928.7-0.32929
3rdLaborGabbai109.10.1918
4thHadash-TaalOdeh87.2-0.47.66
5thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman76.606.66
6thUnited Right ListPeretz76.1-0.26.35
7thHaYamin HeHadashBennett65.90.25.73
8thShasDeri65.40.54.97
9thMeretzZandberg65.1-0.35.45
10thZehutFeiglin65.10.74.40
11thKulanuKahlon44.10.43.710
12thRaam-BaladAbbas02.902.97
13thYisrael BeitenuLiberman02.5-1.23.75
14thOther28 Others00.80.30.58
Right-Religious Bloc6564.40.164.366
Center-Left-Arab Bloc5555.6-0.155.754

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on the last 10 polls that were released from March 24 to March 30 (3 Midgam, 2 Panel Project HaMidgam, Panels, Smith, Maagar Mochot, Teleseker & Direct Polls).

Note #3: Read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/

Note #4: Voter exchange agreements have been signed between A) Labor & Meretz, B) HaYamin HeHadash & Yisrael Beitenu, C) Likud & United Right List, D) Shas & UTJ & E) Hadash-Taal & Raam-Balad.

Note #5: Kulanu passed the electoral threshold in 9 of 10 polls this week. Raam Balad passed in 7 polls, Yisrael Beitenu passed in 6 polls and Gesher passed in 2 polls this week.

Note #6: The right-religious bloc of Likud-UTJ-URL-HaYamin HeHadash-Shas-Kulanu-Yisrael Beitenu-Zehut is polling at a high of 68 and a low of 59. The center-left-Arab bloc of Blue & White-Labor-Hadash-Taal-Meretz (including Raam-Balad & Gesher when they pass the threshold) is polling at a high of 61 and a low of 52.

Note #6: 47 parties registered to participate in the April 9 Election. 6 parties have withdrawn to date.

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)


Maagar Mochot conducted a poll 610 people with a 4% margin of error that was published by Yisrael HaYom & broadcast by i24news on March 29 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
28 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
06 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
06 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2% [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
1% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
1% [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)

Under 1%

00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

68 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
52 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to be Prime Minister?

46% Netanyahu, 36% Gantz, 19% Don’t know

To what extent is the US recognition of the Golan an achievement of Netanyahu?

23% To a very great extent, 21% To a great extent, 17% To a certain extent, 15% To a low extent, 13% Don’t know, 11% To a very low extent

What is the main issue you will vote on?

29% Economy, 28% Security, 15% Other, 10% Corruption, 7% Divides in society, 7% Diplomatic, 4% Identity of head of list

Smith conducted a poll 650 people with a 3.9% margin of error that was published by Maariv on March 29 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
29 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
06 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

3% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 1%

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

66 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
54 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Direct Polls conducted a poll 612 people with a 4% margin of error that was published by Makor Rishon on March 29 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
29 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
09 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
08 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
07 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
06 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.3% [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
1.5% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 1%

0.3% [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
0.2% [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Scenario poll of 665 religious Zionist voters:

46% United Right Parties, 30% HaYamin HeHadash, 10% Zehut, 6% Likud, 4.5% Undecided, 2% Other parties, 1.5% Blue & White

Midgam conducted a poll 510 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was published by Yediot Achronot on March 29 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
27 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
09 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.7% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 1%

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others

64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to be Prime Minister?

41% Netanyahu, 30% Gantz, 29% Don’t know

Who do you want to be Prime Minister?

37% Netanyahu, 32% Gantz, 31% Don’t know

Who do you think will be Prime Minister?

56% Netanyahu, 20% Gantz, 24% Don’t know

Who is more suited to deal with Hamas?

35% Netanyahu, 30% Gantz, 21% Neither, 14% Don’t know

Are you satisfied with Netanyahu’s conduct regarding the conflict with Hamas in Gaza?

63% No, 28% Yes, 9% Don’t know

Do you support a ground operation in Gaza to remove the rocket launchers?

42% Yes, 34% No, 24% Don’t know

Do you support or oppose Israel authorizing Qatari money to the Hamas?

63% Oppose, 21% Don’t know, 16% Support

Do you support a bill that will allow public transportation on the Sabbath where there is a great majority of secular residents?

68% Yes, 23% No, 9% Don’t know

Do you support a bill that will allow couples to marry through civil marriage?

68% Yes, 22% No, 10% Don’t know

Do you support a bill that will force Yeshiva students to be drafted into the army?

57% Yes, 30% No, 13% Don’t know

Do you support a bill that will legalize weed?

55% Yes, 28% No, 17% Don’t know

Do you support a bill that will change the Nation State Law to include equality for all citizens?

54% Yes, 33% No, 13% Don’t know

Does the position the party you are voting for take on the following issues influence your vote for that party?

Public transportation on Shabbat:

62% Yes, 29% No, 9% Don’t know

Civil marriage:

59% Yes, 31% No, 10% Don’t know

Nation State Law:

58% Yes, 30% No, 12% Don’t know

Haredi Draft Law?

49% Yes, 38% No, 15% Don’t know

Legalizing weed?

53% No, 34% Yes, 13% Don’t know

Panel Project HaMidgam conducted a poll 801 people with a 3.6% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on March 28 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
30 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
10 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
07 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
07 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
05 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.3% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
2.2% [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)

Under 1%

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan) and others
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)

64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to be Prime Minister?

51% Netanyahu, 36% Gantz, 13% Don’t know

In the last round of fighting between Israel and Hamas, who do you think could more correctly claim that it won?

43% Neither, 28% Hamas, 15% Israel, 9% Don’t know, 5% Both

Do you think Netanyahu’s policy vis-a-vis Hamas is correct or incorrect?

61% Incorrect, 22% Correct, 17% Don’t know

Do you think that American recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan improves or does not improve Israel’s standing in the world?

51% Improve, 34% Not improve, 15% Don’t know

Do you think that the American recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan is Trump’s intervention in the Israeli elections?

46% Yes, 39% No, 15% Don’t know

In contrast to the previous weeks, is your level of trust in Benny Gantz, the chairman of Blue and White, increasing or weakening?

45% Same, 35% Weakening, 12% Strengthening, 8% Don’t know

Panels conducted a poll 1005 people with a 3.4% margin of error that was published by Walla on March 27 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
30 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
09 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
08 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.6% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
1.9% [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)

Under 1%

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan) and others
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)

68 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
52 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Based on the exchange of the last few days are you satisfied or not satisfied with Prime Minister Netanyahu?

56% Not satisfied, 38% Satisfied, 5% Don’t know

Likud voters: 75% Satisfied, 21% Not satisfied, 2% Don’t know

Who is more suited to be Prime Minister?

53% Netanyahu, 30% Gantz, 17% Don’t know

Would you support a national unity government between Likud and Blue & White?

45% No, 28% Yes, 27% Don’t know

Likud voters: 43% No, 30% Don’t know, 27% Yes
Blue & White voters: 40% Yes, 40% No, 20% Don’t know

Midgam conducted a poll 504 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Army Radio on March 27 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
28 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
10 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
08 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
05 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
04 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

1.6% [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)

Under 1%

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan) and others
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)

63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to be Prime Minister?

45% Netanyahu, 33% Gantz, 22% Don’t know

Based on the exchange of the last few days are you satisfied or not satisfied with Prime Minister Netanyahu?

54% Not satisfied, 35% Satisfied, 11% Don’t know

Who is better on defense issues?

32% Netanyahu, 30% Gantz, 20% They are both the same, 18% Don’t know

Teleseker conducted a poll 545 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Kan’s Reshet Bet Radio on March 27 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
28 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
06 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
05 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
05 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.6% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
2.1% [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)

Under 1%

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan) and others
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)

65 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
55 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to be Prime Minister?

45% Netanyahu, 34% Gantz, 21% Don’t know

The response of the IDF to the rocket fire of the Sharon area was…?

53% Too weak, 29% Proportional, 3% Too strong

Based on the exchange of the last few days how would you grade the response of Prime Minister Netanyahu?

33% Bad, 33% Average, 24% Good

Panel Project HaMidgam conducted a poll 738 people with a 3.6% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on March 24 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
28 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
10 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
08 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
07 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.4% [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
1.6% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)

Under 1%

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan) and others
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)

63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to be Prime Minister?

45% Netanyahu, 38% Gantz, 17% Don’t know