Archive for February, 2019


Number 10 Strategies conducted a poll of 708 people with a 3.7% margin of error for Times of Israel that was published on Feb 27 2019. The poll was conducted Feb 24-27.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

36 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
29 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
05 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Ari)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

1% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
00 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [–-] Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others

61 [62] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
59 [58] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Scenario Poll: If AG indicts Netanyahu before the election.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

44 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
25 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
10 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
08 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
08 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Ari)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2% [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
2% [07] Shas (Deri)
2% [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
1% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
00 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [–-] Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others

55 [62] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
65 [58] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions:

The next Knesset elections will take place on April 9, 2019. Do you intend to vote?

79% Very likely, 21% Likely

Which of the following five issues do you think is the most important issue that needs to be addressed by the Israeli government?

47% Economic issues such as the cost of living, housing and jobs, 21% Security, 17% Democracy, Rule of Law and Corruption, 11% Relations with the Palestinians, Diplomacy and the Peace Process, 5% Religion and State

After 10 years in power, do you feel that the time has come to replace Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister?

53% Yes, it is time to change, 27% Israel needs change but at present there is no better alternative, 19% No, I’m pleased with the way he runs the country

Between Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, who would you like to see as prime minister after the elections?
 
41% Benjamin Netanyahu, 39% Benny Gantz, 20% Do not know

Who do you trust more to protect the security of the State of Israel?

41% Netanyahu, 30% Ganz, 29% Do not know

Who do you trust more to run the Israeli economy?
 
41% Netanyahu, 35% Do not know, 25% Gantz

Which statement is closer to your opinions?

47% The investigations against Benjamin Netanyahu are very serious and should not be underestimated: If he is indicted, he must resign immediately.
35% The investigations against Benjamin Netanyahu are petty and politically motivated. His opponents know that it is impossible to beat him at the polls, so they try.
18% Do not know

Last week Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu worked to unite the Bayit Yehudi, Tekuma & Otzma parties. Did this increase or decrease the chances that you would vote for Netanyahu and the Likud, or did it not affect?

61% Did not affect my decision, 27% Reduced the chances that I would vote for Netanyahu and the Likud, 12% Increased the chances that I would vote for Netanyahu and the Likud

A more recent poll of Maagar Mochot can be found here: https://knessetjeremy.com/2019/02/24/yisrael-hayom-i24-poll-blue-white-36-likud-31-hayamin-hehadash-9-labor-8-united-right-list-8/

Poll from Friday (it happens sometimes that I miss one):

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 616 people with a 4.3% margin of error for 103 FM Radio that was broadcast on Feb 22 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
25 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
10 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Ari)
07 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
04 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [06] Raam-Balad (Abbas)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

03 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
03 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
03 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
03 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)

Other parties – 1 seat total

00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [–-] Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others

52+10 [62] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
55+03 [58] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Question:

Who is more suited for Prime Minister?

36% Netanyahu, 25% Gantz, 20% Other answers, 9% Lapid, 5% Bennett, 4% Gabbai, 1% Liberman

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Saturday February 25th 2018.

PlacePartyLeaderSeatsKnessetJeremy AVGChangeWeek 8 AVGCurrent
1stBlue & WhiteGantz3534.63.63111
2ndLikudNetanyahu3030.3-0.73129
3rdLaborGabbai87.9-1.1918
4thHadash-TaalOdeh87.61.46.26
5thHaYamin HeHadashBennett77.1-0.77.83
6thUnited Torah JudaismLitzman76.7-0.87.56
7thUnited Right ListPeretz65.65.605
8thShasDeri65.40.25.27
9thMeretzZandberg54.5-0.75.25
10thRaam-BaladAbbas43.8-2.76.57
11thYisrael BeitenuLiberman43.60.13.55
12thKulanuKahlon02.9-0.93.810
13thOther35 Others00-3.33.38
Right-Religious Bloc6061.61.66066
Center-Left-Arab Bloc6058.4-1.66054

Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.

Note #2: This average is based on 11 polls that were released from Feb 17-24 (4 Midgam, 3 Direct Polls, 2 Panels, 1 Panel Project HaMidgam and 1 Maagar Mochot).

Note #3: Read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/

Note #4: The official candidate lists were submitted this past week on Wed Feb 20 & Thurs Feb 21 2019. The polls conducted before the formation of Blue & White are scenario polls of Gantz + Lapid.

Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)


Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 616 people with a 3.9% margin of error for Yisrael HaYom & I24 News that was published on Feb 24 2019. The poll was conducted Feb 22-24.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

36 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
09 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
08 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Ari)
07 [07] Shas (Deri)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
07 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

3% [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
2% [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
2% [06] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
2% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
2% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
0% [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)

Other parties: 1%
00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [–-] Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister?

45% Netanyahu, 36% Gantz, 19% Don’t know

Where do you place Blue & White on the political map?

45% Center, 35% Left, 12% Right, 8% Other answers

Midgam conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.4% margin of error for Yediot Achronot that was published on Feb 24 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
29 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
09 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [06] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [06] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
05 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Ari)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

3.1% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
3.0% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–] Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others

60 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
60 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Panels conducted a poll of 1008 people with a 3.3% margin of error for Maariv that was published on Feb 22 2019. The poll was conducted Feb 21.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
29 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ (Litzman)
06 [06] Hadash-Taal
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Ari)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [06] Raam-Balad
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.8% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
2.4% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
1.1% [–] Green Leaf
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–] Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others

63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Question:

Who is more suited to be Prime Minister?

48% Netanyahu, 36% Gantz, 16% Don’t know

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 536 people with a 4% margin of error for Makor Rishon that was published on Feb 22 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
11 [06] Hadash-Taal
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ (Litzman)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Ari)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.38% [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
2.08% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
1.68% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
1.22% [06] Raam-Balad
00 [–] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–] Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others

63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Midgam conducted a poll of 707 people with a 3.7% margin of error for Yediot Achronot that was published on Feb 22 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

36 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
30 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ (Litzman)
06 [06] Hadash-Taal
06 [06] Raam-Balad
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
05 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Ari)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.7% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
2.4% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–] Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others

60 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
60 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to be Prime Minister?

38% Netanyahu, 36% Gantz, 26% Don’t know

Who do you believe will form the next government?

59% Netanyahu, 23% Gantz, 13% Don’t know. 5% Neither

Is Israel headed in the direction of a 2-party system like the United States?

44% Yes, 34% No, 18% Neither, 8% Don’t know

Do you want to see Otzma candidates Ben Ari & Ben Gvir in Knesset?

46% No, 30% Don’t know, 24% Yes

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 735 people with a 3.8% margin of error for Kan (Channel 11) that was broadcast on Feb 21 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
11 [06] Hadash-Taal
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ (Litzman)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Ari)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.4% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
2.1% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
2.1% [06] Raam-Balad (with Hadash)
1.9% [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
0.6% [–] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Midgam conducted a poll of 515 people with a 4.4% margin of error for Channel 12 that was conducted and broadcast on Feb 21 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

36 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
30 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ (Litzman)
06 [06] Hadash-Taal (without Hadash)
06 [06] Raam-Balad (with Hadash)
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [07] Shas (Deri)
04 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Ari)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
04 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

3.1% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
2.0% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
0.2% [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai), Magen (Gal Hirsch), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others

60 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
60 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Question:

Who is most suited to be Prime Minister?

37% Netanyahu, 36% Gantz & Lapid 17% Neither, 10% Don’t know