Archive for December, 2018


Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Dec 30 2018.

The current KJPA is currently averaging the 5 most recent polls (Panels, Midgam, Sarid, Panel Project HaMidgam and Direct Polls) released on December 30 2018. It is being compared to the 2015 election results.

AVGCurrentParty
27.630Likud
13.40Israel Resilience
12.811Yesh Atid
12.413Joint List
10.43Yamin Hadash
8.824Zionist Union
76UTJ
5.610Kulanu
5.65Meretz
4.87Shas
4.61Gesher
3.85Yisrael Beitenu
3.25Bayit Yehudi
62.466Right-Religious
57.654Center-Left-Arab

Sarid conducted a poll of 825 people for the Kan Channel that was broadcast on Dec 30 2018.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [30] Likud
16 [11] Yesh Atid
14 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
13 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz)
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
09 [24] Zionist Union
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Meretz
05 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
04 [07] Shas
00 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (under threshold)
00 [05] Bayit Yehudi (under threshold)
00 [–-] Yaalon, Zehut, Green Leaf, Yachad, Ofek Chadash (as other) under 3.25% threshold

59 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
61 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Where do Hayamin Hehadash seats come from?

5 from previous Bayit Yehudi voters, 5 from Likud, 1 from Kulanu, less than 1 each – a combined 3 seats that are divided between Shas, Zionist Union, Yesh Atid and Yachad.

Panel Project HaMidgam conducted a poll of 705 people with a 3.7% margin of error for Channel 10 that was broadcast on Dec 30 2018.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud
14 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz)
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [11] Yesh Atid
08 [24] Zionist Union
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [10] Kulanu
05 [07] Shas
05 [05] Meretz
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
03 [05] Bayit Yehudi (under threshold)
00 [–-] Yaalon, Zehut, Green Leaf, Yachad, Ofek Chadash (as other) under 3.25% threshold

64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Midgam conducted a poll of 510 people with a 4.4% margin of error for Channel 13 that was broadcast on Dec 30 2018.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [30] Likud
14 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz)
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [11] Yesh Atid
09 [24] Zionist Union
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [07] Shas
06 [05] Meretz
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi
00 [–-] Yaalon, Zehut, Green Leaf, Yachad, Ofek Chadash (as other) under 3.25% threshold

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Scenario Poll: Gantz+Yaalon together

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [30] Likud
16 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz+Yaalon)
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [11] Yesh Atid
08 [24] Zionist Union
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [07] Shas
06 [05] Meretz
06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi
00 [–-] Zehut, Green Leaf, Yachad, Ofek Chadash (as other) under 3.25% threshold

61 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
59 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Who do you prefer for Prime Minister?

36% Netanyahu, 29% Gantz, 24% Neither, 11% Don’t know

Panels conducted a poll of 580 people with a 4.3% margin of error for Walla that was published on Dec 30 2018.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [30] Likud
15 [11] Yesh Atid
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz)
10 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
09 [24] Zionist Union
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Meretz
05 [10] Kulanu
04 [07] Shas
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
00 [–-] Yaalon, Zehut, Green Leaf, Yachad, Ofek Chadash (as other) under 3.25% threshold

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Additional Questions:

Did Bennett & Shaked do the right thing by leaving Bayit Yehudi?

All voters: 43% Don’t know, 30% Yes, 27% No
Bayit Yehudi voters: 41% Don’t know, 31% No, 28% Yes

Who should lead Hayamin Hehadash?

All voters: 42% Don’t know, 35% Bennett, 23% Shaked
Right voters: 42% Bennett, 42% Don’t know, 26% Shaked

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 628 people with a 4% margin of error for Makor Rishon that was published on Dec 30 2018. The poll was conducted the night of Dec 29 following the press conference where Bennett & Shaked announced the formation of Hayamin Hehadash.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [30] Likud
15 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz)
14 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [11] Yesh Atid
09 [24] Zionist Union
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [07] Shas
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [05] Meretz
05 [05] Bayit Yehudi
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
04 [10] Kulanu
00 [–-] Yaalon, Zehut, Green Leaf, Yachad, Ofek Chadash (as other) under 3.25% threshold

65 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
55 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Midgam conducted a poll of 511 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on Dec 29 2018. Poll was conducted on Dec 27.

Favorability for Outgoing Ministers

53% Shaked (Bayit Yehudi/Hayamin Hehadash)
44% Bennett (Bayit Yehudi/Hayamin Hehadash)
43% Netanyahu (Likud)
43% Y. Katz (Likud)
42% Levin (Likud)
41% Regev (Likud)
39% Erdan (Likud)
36% Kahlon (Kulanu)
33% Litzman (UTJ)
32% Liberman (Yisrael Beitenu)
31% Elkin (Likud)
29% Akunis (Likud)
28% Gamliel (Likud)
27% Steinitz (Likud)
26% Galant (Kulanu)
26% Cohen (Kulanu)
24% Kara (Likud)
23% Ariel (Bayit Yehudi/Tekuma)
21% C. Katz (Likud)
20% Hanegbi (Likud)
13% Deri (Shas)

Who is best suited for Defense Minister?

27% None of above, 27% Gantz, 11% Bennett, 11% Ashkenazi, 9% Liberman, 9% Barak, 6% Galant

Who is better suited for Finance Minister?

57% Neither, 29% Kahlon, 14% Orly Levy

Are you pleased with the outgoing government?

62% No, 32% Yes, 6% Don’t know

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 507 people with a 4.3% margin of error for Yisrael Hayom that was published on Dec 27 2019.

Scenario #1: With Gantz Party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [30] Likud
15 [-–] Gantz Party
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [11] Yesh Atid
11 [08] Bayit Yehudi
07 [24] Zionist Union
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
05 [10] Kulanu
05 [05] Meretz
04 [07] Shas
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
02 [–-] Yaalon
00 [–-] Zehut, Green Leaf, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Scenario #2: With Lapid-Gantz Party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud
25 [11] Yesh Atid + Gantz
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [24] Zionist Union
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
05 [05] Meretz
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [07] Shas
02 [–-] Yaalon
00 [–-] Zehut, Green Leaf, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Scenario #3: With Zionist Union-Gantz Party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [30] Likud
16 [24] Zionist Union + Gantz
14 [11] Yesh Atid
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [08] Bayit Yehudi
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
06 [10] Kulanu
04 [07] Shas
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [05] Meretz
02 [–-] Yaalon
00 [–-] Zehut, Green Leaf, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold

64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
55 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Note: Poll comes out to 119 seats and not 120.

Additional Questions:

Who is most suited for Prime Minister?

35% Netanyahu, 24% None of the above, 14% Gantz, 10% Lapid, 6% Gabbai, 5% Bennett, 3% Liberman, 3% Yaalon

Who is most suited for Defense Minister?

38% Gantz, 21% None of the above, 15% Bennett, 12% Galant, 9% Netanyahu, 5% Liberman

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Channel 12 on Dec 27 2019.

Scenario #1: With Gantz Party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [30] Likud
15 [11] Yesh Atid
13 [-–] Gantz Party
11 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [08] Bayit Yehudi
09 [24] Zionist Union
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [10] Kulanu
05 [05] Meretz
05 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
04 [07] Shas
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
00 [–-] Zehut, Yaalon, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Scenario #2: Gantz joins Yesh Atid

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [30] Likud
30 [11] Yesh Atid + Gantz
11 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [24] Zionist Union
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [10] Kulanu
05 [05] Meretz
04 [07] Shas
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
00 [–-] Zehut, Yaalon, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Scenario #3: Gantz joins Yesh Atid, Barak joins Zionist Union

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [30] Likud
27 [11] Yesh Atid + Gantz
11 [24] Zionist Union + Barak
11 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [08] Bayit Yehudi
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [10] Kulanu
05 [05] Meretz
04 [07] Shas
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
00 [–-] Zehut, Yaalon, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Midgam conducted a poll of 535 people with a 4.3% margin of error for Channel 13 that was conducted and published on Dec 25 2019.

Scenario #1: With Gantz Party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [30] Likud
16 [-–] Gantz Party
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [24] Zionist Union
11 [11] Yesh Atid
09 [08] Bayit Yehudi
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [10] Kulanu
05 [07] Shas
05 [05] Meretz
04 [01] Orly Levy
00 [–] Zehut (1%)
00 [–] Green Leaf (1%)
00 [–-] Yaalon, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold

61 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
59 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Scenario #2: Zionist Union+Gantz Party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [30] Likud
25 [24] Zionist Union + Gantz
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [11] Yesh Atid
10 [08] Bayit Yehudi
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [10] Kulanu
05 [07] Shas
04 [05] Meretz
04 [01] Orly Levy
00 [–-] Zehut, Yaalon, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold

64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.

Additional Question:

Do you want to see Netanyahu as the next Prime Minister?

52% No, 34% Yes, 14% Don’t know