Archive for December, 2017


Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 507 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was published by Makor Rishon on Dec 29 2017. The poll was conducted on Dec 25-27 2017.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [11] Yesh Atid
24 [30] Likud
14 [08] Bayit Yehudi
12 [24] Zionist Union
11 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [10] Kulanu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [05] Meretz
05 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [07] Shas
00 [–-] Yachad, Yaalon, Zehut (as other) under threshold

65 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
55 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Additional Questions:

Who is most suited to serve as Prime Minister?

33% None, 24% Netanyahu, 18% Lapid, 7% Yaalon, 6% Gabbay, 6% Bennett, 3% Liberman, 3% Don’t know

 

Updated KnessetJeremy Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls: https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/

 

There is an additional poll that was published this week that I will not include in my polling average for two reasons. First, it was conducted for one of the political parties. Second, the polling company that conducted the poll has not released a political poll since 2014. The company was the least accurate polling company in the 2009 and 2013 cycles according to the KnessetJeremy parameters.

Shvakim Panorama conducted a poll for Yisrael Beitenu that the party leaked to Ynet that published it on Dec 26 2017.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [30] Likud
19 [11] Yesh Atid
17 [24] Zionist Union
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [08] Bayit Yehudi
09 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [05] Meretz
06 [07] Shas
00 [–-] Yachad, Yaalon, Zehut (as other) under threshold

64 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
56 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

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Geocartography conducted a poll that was published by Channel 20 on Dec 24 2017. The poll was conducted on Dec 18-19 2017.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [11] Yesh Atid
24 [30] Likud
20 [08] Bayit Yehudi
14 [24] Zionist Union
09 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
09 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [10] Kulanu
05 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [05] Meretz
00 [07] Shas
00 [–-] Yachad, Yaalon, Zehut (as other) under threshold

65 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
55 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

 

Additional Questions:

How confident are you that you will vote for the party of your choice?

94% Joint List, 80% UTJ, 65% Meretz, 57% Likud, 53% Zionist Union, 42% Yisrael Beitenu, 38% Bayit Yehudi, 38% Yesh Atid, 7% Kulanu

 

Updated KnessetJeremy Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls: https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/

Poll #1: Netanyahu Investigations

Midgam conducted a poll of 504 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by the Channel 13 on Dec 21 2017. It was conducted on Dec 20-21 2017.

Is the police conducting a witch hunt after Netanyahu or is the objective of the investigations to reach the truth?

59% Truth, 27% Witch hunt, 14% Don’t know

If the police does recommend an indictment for receiving bribery, should Netanyahu resign?

60% Yes, 28% No, 12% Don’t know

If the police does recommend an indictment for fraud and breach of trust, should Netanyahu resign??

63% Yes, 27% No, 10% Don’t know

 

Poll #2: Teva

Midgam conducted a poll that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on Dec 21 2017.

Should the Teva CEO who under his watch purchased new factories for 42 million shekels take personal responsibility for the losses?

77% Yes, 13% Don’t know, 10% No

Should the Teva board of directors who approved the deals that led to losses of billions of shekels participate in the losses of the company?

79% Yes, 11% Don’t know, 10% No

Should the pension funds that purchased Teva stocks or bonds issue a class action suit Teva to save as much money as possible for the public?

68% Yes, 17% Don’t know, 15% No

Should the state demand from Teva to hold off on the mass firings because of all the tax benefits it has received?

69% Yes, 22% No, 9% Don’t know

Would the demand for Teva to hold off from mass firings in its current state be the right thing to do?

58% Yes, 25% No, 17% Don’t know

Do you think it is justified to pass a law that will force companies that receive large tax benefits to accept the participation of external experts in significant decisions?

69% Yes, 18% No, 13% Don’t know

Do you agree with the argument that in Israel there is a system where executives receive a very high salary when the company does well and it is only the workers that pay the punishment when the company loses money?

77% Yes, 13% No, 10% Don’t know

Is it justified for the entire economy to strike as a pressure tactic meant to prevent mass firings?

50% No, 36% Yes, 14% Don’t know

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on Dec 18 2017.

Did Kahlon do the right thing by lower taxes on products such as electricity and perfume or should he have allocated the money elsewhere?

50% Wrong thing, 38% Right thing, 12% Don’t know

Are you satisfied with Kahlon’s conduct in the Teva affair?

52% No, 35% Don’t know, 12% Yes

Did Kahlon succeed in lowering or preventing an increase in housing prices?

73% No, 12% Prevent increase, 8% Lowered prices, 7% Don’t know

Are you satisfied with the conduct of Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon?

55% No, 35% Yes, 10% Don’t know

Is Kahlon capable of leading large economic movements in the Israeli market?

45% No, 35% Yes, 20% Don’t know

Did Kahlon do the right thing by supporting the law to close supermarkets on the Sabbath?

54% No, 37% Yes, 9% Don’t know

Is Moshe Kahlon a worthy candidate for Prime Minister?

72% No, 17% Yes, 11% Don’t know

Midgam conducted a poll that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on Dec 14 2017.

Is President Trump’s declaration of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital going to strengthen or weaken Israel’s standing in the world?

54% Strengthen, 29% Don’t know, 17% Weaken

Are the severe reactions from the Muslim world against President Trump’s Jerusalem recognition harming the standing of the United States in the Muslim world?

58% Yes, 31% No, 11% Don’t know

Will the reactions by the Muslim states and the Palestinians towards the Jerusalem recognition cause the United States to rush their peace plan between Israel and the Palestinians?

48% No, 26% Yes, 26% Don’t know

Assuming that the United States does release a peace plan between Israel and the Palestinians, will it include transferring Palestinian neighborhoods in Jerusalem to the Palestinians?

47% Yes, 32% No, 21% Don’t know

Do you think that in the American peace deal that the Temple Mount will remain under the Waqf?

61% Yes, 22% Don’t know, 17% No

In your opinion if Russia, the United States and Western Europe band together and release a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians, will a plan like that succeed?

53% No, 36% Yes, 11% Don’t know

Do you think that Trump’s Jerusalem declaration might lead to another intifada?

48% Yes, 41% No, 11% Don’t know

Smith conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.5% margin of error that was published by the Jerusalem Post on Dec 15 2017.

Is the Trump administration more pro-Israel, more pro-Palestinian, or neutral?

76% Pro-Israel, 14% Neutral, 8% No opinion/don’t know, 2% Pro-Palestinian

Jewish voters: 77% Pro-Israel, 15% Neutral, 7% No opinion/don’t know, 1% Pro-Palestinian
Arab voters: 69% Pro-Israel

Will Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel contribute to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, does it harm the chances of resolving the conflict or does it have no impact?

42.9% Impedes resolving the conflict, 25.3% Has no influence, 23.1% Contributes to resolving the conflict, 8.8% No opinion

Jewish voters: 36% Has no influence, 33% Impedes resolving the conflict, 23% Contributes to resolving the conflict, 8% No opinion
Arab voters: 76% Impedes resolving the conflict.

Bayit Yehudi voters: 47% Contributes to resolving the conflict
Likud voters: 22% Contributes to resolving the conflict
Zionist Union voters: 14% Contributes to resolving the conflict
Yesh Atid voters: 12% Contributes to resolving the conflict

Poll #1: Jerusalem 

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on Dec 11 2017.

To what extent is the American recognition of Jerusalem the personal achievement of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu?

35% To a great extent, 30% Don’t know, 18% Not at all, 17% To less of an extent

How will the American recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital influence the international standing of the State of Israel?

41% Positive change, 34% No change, 18% Negative change, 7% Don’t know

President Trump recognized Jerusalem and signed the waiver. What would have you preferred to see first?

51% Recognize Jerusalem, 30% Move embassy, 19% Don’t know

How should Israel act now – call on other countries to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital or keep a low profile?

50% Public call to other states, 42% Low profile, 8% Don’t know

Prime Minister Netanyahu traveled to Europe for a series of meetings. Should he demand from the leaders he meets to recognize Jerusalem?

54% Yes, 32% No, 24% Don’t know

What should Israel do in connection to negotiations with the Palestinians?

48% Restart talks, 39% Wait for them to initiate, 15% Don’t know

 

Poll #2: Police

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on Dec 4 2017.

Do you trust the police recommendation after an investigation is completed?

49% Yes, 48% No, 3% Don’t know

How would you define the relationship of the police towards the Haredim?

54% Discrimination, 25% Fair treatment, 15% Preferred treatment, 6% Don’t know

How would you define the relationship of the police towards the Arabs?

49% Discrimination, 23% Fair treatment, 22% Preferred treatment, 6% Don’t know

How would you define the relationship of the police towards the Ethiopians?

70% Discrimination, 19% Fair treatment, 4% Preferred treatment, 7% Don’t know

How does the conduct of the Police Commissioner influence the public standing of the police?

34% Doesn’t influence, 33% Good influence, 18% Bad influence, 15% Don’t know

Are you satisfied with the conduct of Homeland Security Minister Erdan?

50% No, 38% Yes, 12% Don’t know

Does the police conduct itself the correct way with the media?

50% No, 30% Yes, 20% Don’t know

Was the decision to investigate MK Bitan the day before the Knesset vote on the Police Recommendations Bill a coincidence or intentional?

53% Intentional, 25% Don’t know, 22% Coincidence

 

Poll #3: The Deal

Midgam conducted a poll that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on Nov 23 2017.

Will the American administration adopt Netanyahu’s offer of two states for two peoples based on the Bar Ilan Speech?

52% Yes, 27% No, 21% Don’t know

Will it be possible to keep the settlement enterprise in Judea and Samaria even within the framework of a Palestinian State?

72% No, 18% Yes, 10% Don’t know

Should Israel conduct diplomatic arrangement negotiations with the Palestinians if only Fatah is involved?

44% Yes, 35% No, 21% Don’t know

Should Israel conduct diplomatic arrangement negotiations with the Palestinians if Hamas is involved?

51% No, 38% Yes, 11% Don’t know

Is it possible to reach a peace agreement with the Palestinians without Israel giving the Arab neighborhoods in eastern Jerusalem to the Palestinians?

57% No, 29% Yes, 14% Don’t know

Do you think we can have one state for two peoples and grant the Palestinians equal rights including voting rights?

63% No, 26% Yes, 11% Don’t know

Do you think we can have one state for two peoples without equal rights for Palestinians?

63% No, 26% Yes, 11% Don’t know

If Israel annexes all of Judea and Samaria, with its Jews and Arabs, will it be able to maintain its Jewish identity?

51% Yes, 35% No, 14% Don’t know

 

Midgam conducted a poll of 525 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 2 on Dec 4 2017.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [30] Likud
22 [11] Yesh Atid
18 [24] Zionist Union
12 [08] Bayit Yehudi
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [05] Meretz
06 [10] Kulanu
05 [07] Shas
00 [–-] Yachad, Yaalon, Zehut (as other) under threshold

61 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
59 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister – Netanyahu or Gabbai?

39% Netanyahu, 25% Neither, 19% Gabbai, 17% Don’t know

Who is more suited to serve as Prime Minister – Netanyahu or Lapid?

35% Netanyahu, 30% Neither, 20% Lapid, 14% Don’t know

Updated Knesset Jeremy Polling Averagehttps://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/

Panels conducted a poll of 553 people with a 4.3% margin of error that was published by Maariv and the Jerusalem Post on Dec 1 2017. The poll was conducted on Nov 29 2017.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [30] Likud
25 [11] Yesh Atid
17 [24] Zionist Union
12 [08] Bayit Yehudi
11 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [10] Kulanu
06 [05] Meretz
05 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [07] Shas
00 [–-] Yachad, Yaalon, Zehut (as other) under threshold

61 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
59 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Scenario Poll: With Gideon Saar leading the Likud.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud led by Saar
23 [11] Yesh Atid
15 [24] Zionist Union
12 [08] Bayit Yehudi
11 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [05] Meretz
05 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [07] Shas
00 [–-] Yachad, Yaalon, Zehut (as other) under threshold

65 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
55 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Additional Questions:

Who is most suited to be Prime Minister?

26% Netanyahu, 21% None, 13% Lapid, 11% Don’t know, 9% Gabbay, 6% Bennett, 5% Kahlon, 4% Liberman

Note: 63% of the 2015 Likud voters answered Netanyahu

Is the bill that would prevent the police from making recommendations to the State Prosecutor’s Office a fitting bill?

47% No; 24% Yes, 29% Don’t Know

Note: 58% of Likud voters answered yes.

What is the true purpose of the bill?

55% Intended to help Netanyahu, 24% Don’t Know, 21% A matter of principle

Note: 51% of Likud voters answered a matter of principle

Are you satisfied with Netanyahu’s handling of the coalition crisis over Israel Railways work on Shabbat?

50% Unsatisfied with, 33% satisfied, 17% Don’t Know

What do you think of Likud MKs Bitan & Amsalam’s conduct?

47% Lowers chance I vote Likud, 46% No impact, 7% Strengthens chance I vote Likud

Note: Likud voters answered: 65% No impace, 20% Strengthens chance I vote Likud, 15% Lowers chance I vote Likud

What do you think of Kahlon’s conduct?

50% Not good, 28% Don’t know, 22% Good

Do you think there is religious coercion in Israel?

53% Yes, 35% No, 12% Don’t know

Who should lead the camp that faces Netanyahu Likud in the next election?

38% Don’t Know, 34% Lapid, 27% Gabbay.

Note: Center-left voters: 44% Lapid, 28% Gabbay, 28% Don’t Know

Question for Likud voters who no longer support Likud: Who should replace Netanyahu?

35% Saar, 7% Yisrael Katz

Updated Knesset Jeremy Polling Averagehttps://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/