Archive for January, 2014


Smith conducted a poll that was published by Globes on Jan 31 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

36 [31] Likud Beitenu

17 [15] Labor

12 [19] Yesh Atid

11 [12] Bayit Yehudi

11 [11] Shas

10 [06] Meretz

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [06] Movement

11 [11] Hadash, Balad and Ra’am-Ta’al

00 [02] Kadima

66 [61] Right-Religious

54 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The Smith poll is different than the Panels poll. Smith’s poll was conducted before the “apology” and the Panels poll was conducted afterwards. Smith shows a larger right-religious block than the Panels poll, with higher numbers for Likud Beitenu, Shas & UTJ. Panels poll gives Bayit Yehudi 17 seats and Smith gives Bayit Yehudi 11 seats.

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on Jan 30 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [31] Likud Beitenu

19 [15] Labor

17 [12] Bayit Yehudi

12 [19] Yesh Atid

11 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [03] Balad

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

02 [02] Kadima

61 [61] Right-Religious

59 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The clear winner of the Netanyahu-Bennett aftermath is Bennett. Bayit Yehudi gains 5 seats from last week’s Panels poll and Likud Beitenu dropped 4 seats. It is very unusual to see such a change in weekly polls. Another interesting point is that Shas’s slow gradual drop is continuing.

Additional Questions:

Were Minister Bennett’s words against the Prime Minister worthy of being said considering he is a minister in the government?

Not worthy 52%, Worthy 37%

How should Prime Minister Netanyahu respond to Bennett after his comments?

Ignore him 31%, Criticize him 29%, No opinion 23%, Fire him 17%

Do you support the idea of Jewish settlers in Judea and Samaria staying in their places under Palestinian sovereignty?

No 54%, Yes 38%

Which side on your on in the argument between Minister Yaalon and Erdan on the Homefront Defense Ministry?

Erdan 37%, Yaalon 37%, Don’t know 26%

Is it correct for teachers in schools express their political opinions to their students?

No 63% Yes 34%.

How should the Education Ministry treat the teacher Adam Varta for what he said to his students?

Give him a hearing 45%, Do nothing 31%, Fire him 21%

Should schools install metal detectors to deal with violence problems?

Yes 78%, No 17%

My Galay Yisrael Radio interview from last night: Harper Visit, Yaa’alon Flap & more:

My Analysis on yesterday’s scenario “Poll: Netanyahu ‘Kadima’-Type Breakaway from Likud is Viable”

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/176860#.UukLURCSzZU

Panels conducted a scenario poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on Jan 28 2014.

If the Likud prevents Netanyahu from reaching an agreement that involves giving up territory and elections were tomorrow – Who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

18 [–] New Netanyahu Led Party

17 [20] Likud

16 [15] Labor

16 [12] Bayit Yehudi

11 [06] Meretz

10 [19] Yesh Atid

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

05 [11] Shas

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

 

50 [61] Right-Religious

70 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The scenario poll that many KnessetJeremy readers have asked for.  The results – a new Netanyahu party would win the election and become the largest party. This scenario would make the block theory completely irrelevant.

Additional Questions:

Where do the Netanyahu party voters come from?

46% Likud Beitenu, undecided 14%, Labor 11%, Yesh Atid 11%, Meretz 9%, Livni/Movement 9%.

What should Netanyahu do if the Likud opposes a proposed peace agreement?

51% Accept the Likud’s decision (77% among Likud Beitenu voters), 25% Create a new party (7% among Likud Beitenu voters), 24% Don’t know (16% among Likud Beitenu voters).

Times Of Israel released a poll on Jan 23 2014. The poll was conducted on December 26-31 with a representative sample of 802 Israelis and an error rate of 3.5%. The poll was conducted by 202 Strategies with Shvakim Panorama.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

46 [31] Likud Beitenu

18 [15] Labor

13 [19] Yesh Atid

11 [11] Shas

07 [12] Bayit Yehudi

06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [06] Meretz

05 [06] Movement

00 [02] Kadima

08 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad

70 [61] Right-Religious

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The results are three weeks old but the Times of Israel poll is in line with the results of the Channel 1 and 103 FM polls, as opposed to the Panels poll that came out today. Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad drop of three seats seems very strange to me.

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on Jan 23 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [31] Likud Beitenu

17 [15] Labor

14 [19] Yesh Atid

12 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [06] Meretz

08 [11] Shas

06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

02 [02] Kadima

60 [61] Right-Religious

60 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: This poll is obviously very different than the polls from the last few days. Key is to note the 60-60 tie between the blocks.

Link to poll that shares my analysis on why the right is increasing:

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/176602

Below are links to my last 5 Galai Yisrael Radio interviews.
Each interview is an in-depth look of around 30 minutes.

Kerry Plan, a View Within the Knesset:

http://www.jewishpress.com/tv/radio/jeremy-man-saltan-on-the-kerry-plan-a-view-within-the-knesset/2014/01/09/

US Spying on Israel and Investing in the Future to Keep the Roads Clear:

http://www.jewishpress.com/tv/radio/us-spying-on-israel-and-investing-in-the-future-to-keep-the-roads-clear/2013/12/27/

Knesset Update and Hollow Negotiations in the Middle East:

http://www.jewishpress.com/tv/radio/knesset-update-and-hollow-negotiations-in-the-middle-east/2013/12/08/

Live show link, Chat, Q&A:

http://www.jewishpress.com/tv/radio/returning-to-the-live-airwaves-of-israel/2013/12/05

Acquittal of Lieberman and More Sanctions for Iran:

http://www.jewishpress.com/tv/radio/acquittal-of-lieberman-and-more-sanctions-for-iran/2013/11/14/

GeoCartography conducted a poll of 500 Israelis with an error rate of 4.2% for Israeli radio 103 FM that was broadcast on Jan 22 2014.

They also conducted a scenario poll where Likud and Yisrael Beitenu ran as two separate parties.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

40 [31] Likud Beitenu

12 [15] Labor

12 [11] Shas

11 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [06] Meretz

09 [19] Yesh Atid

06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

03 [06] Movement

03 [02] Kadima

03 [00] Am Shalem

11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad

72 [61] Right-Religious

48 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Right-Religious block is at 72. Before anyone dismisses that as a crazy number, I’ll point out that yesterday’s Channel 1 poll has the block at 67 seats.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

39 [20] Likud

16 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

11 [15] Labor

10 [11] Shas

10 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [06] Meretz

07 [12] Bayit Yehudi

04 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

02 [06] Movement

02 [02] Kadima

00 [00] Am Shalem

11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad

76 [61] Right-Religious

44 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: In this scenario poll, Likud+Yisrael Beitenu+Bayit Yehudi come out to 62 seats. Right-Religious block with Shas+UTJ come out to 76, an increase of four seats from the above poll.

Channel 1 broadcast a poll on Jan 21 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [31] Likud Beitenu

16 [15] Labor

13 [19] Yesh Atid

13 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [06] Meretz

04 [06] Movement

03 [00] Strong Israel

02  [02] Kadima

11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad

67 [61] Right-Religious

53 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Right-Religious block at 67 is an interesting number. One reason might be the decision of the polling company to list Strong Israel as an option.

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on Jan 16 2014.

Additionally, Panels conducted a scenario poll with a Kachalon Party.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [31] Likud Beitenu

19 [15] Labor

15 [19] Yesh Atid

12 [12] Bayit Yehudi

09 [11] Shas

08 [06] Meretz

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

62 [61] Right-Religious

58 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Center-Left bloc gains 2 seats and reduces the gap from 8 seats to 4 seats. Likud Beitenu remains stable. Labor and Yesh Atid get a bump and Meretz’s slump continues. Bayit Yehudi drops 2 seats from last week.

Scenario Poll: With Kachalon Party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [31] Likud Beitenu

15 [15] Labor

13 [19] Yesh Atid

12 [12] Bayit Yehudi

12 [–] Kachalon Party

08 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [06] Meretz

05 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

70 [61] Right-Religious-Kachalon

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: If you place Kachalon in the right block you are looking at 70 seats. The 8 seats (of 12) Kachalon takes are: 4 from Labor, 2 from Yesh Atid, 2 from Meretz. The 4 seats from the right are 3 from Likud Beitenu and 1 from Shas.

Additional Questions:

Do you believe Prime Minister Netanyahu when he says that the government that he heads is trying to reach peace with the Palestinians?

48% No, 32% Yes. (The left doesn’t believe Netanyahu, the right does)

Do you think Secretary Kerry is operating in the right direction in regards to the diplomatic negotiations?

53% Wrong direction, 27% Right direction.

How should Prime Minister Netanyahu act towards Defense Minister Yaalon following Yaalon’s remarks on Kerry?

34% Don’t do anything, 27% distance himself from the words publicly, 18% to deal with him privately, 11% fire him.

Do you think the Israelis and Palestinians are close to signing an interim-agreement?

53% Far from agreement 27% No chance for agreement 11% Close to agreement.

Who has the most blame as to why there is no significant breakthrough in the diplomatic negotiations?

63% Palestinians 15% Israelis