Three polls show Kadima leading Likud and exactly who would lose from the return of formerly jailed Shas leader Aryeh Deri. In the first scenario, in which Deri stays out of politics, Likud would receive 26 seats and hold a narrow 63-seat conservative coalition consisting of Liberman and the religious parties.

In scenario two Deri leads Shas to 14 seats (four more than if he stays out of politics) and could either join Netanyahu for a 65-seat coalition or join Livni for a 57-seat minority government coalition relying on the Arab parties for support. Deri’s four-seat gain from the first scenario comes at the expense of Kadima (two seats), Yisrael Beitenu and Likud.

In the third scenario Deri starts his own party and runs as a separate entity to the left of Shas creating a 51-seat leftist block compared to the 57-seat right block. This scenario would make it impossible for Netanyahu to form a coalition, and his Likud party would have 24 seats compared to Kadima’s 29. In this scenario the nine-seat Deri party comes at the expense of two Kadima seats, two Likud seats, two Shas seats, one Yisrael Beitenu seat, one Meretz seat and, surprisingly, one National Union seat.

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Telephone poll of a representative sample of adult Israelis (including Arab Israelis) carried out by Dahaf for Yediot Achronot the week of 24 June and published on 24 June 2011

If elections held today, expressed in Knesset seats [current seats in brackets]

26 25 24 [27] Likud
31 29 29 [28] Kadima
14 13 13 [15] Yisrael Beiteinu
10 10 10 [08] Labor
10  — 08 [11] Shas headed by Yishai
—  14 —  [11] Shas headed by Deri
—  —  09 [—] Deri Party
06 06 06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
03 03 03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
04 04 03 [04] National Union
04 04 03 [03] Meretz
12 12 12 [11] Arab parties
00 00 00 [05] Ehud Barak’s Independence Party

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