Tag Archive: Polls


Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on July 17th 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [20] Likud

19 [12] Bayit Yehudi

15 [15] Labor

11 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [06] Meretz

08 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [11] Shas

06 [--] Kachalon Party

05 [06] Movement

03 [04] Hadash

03 [03] Balad

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

00 [02] Kadima

70 [61] Right-Religious-Kachalon

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud remains number 1. Current trends continue, Bayit Yehudi remains in second and receives 19 seats in this poll. Center-left bloc continues their drop, as expected during wartime. Kachalon is included in this poll, as is the old 2% threshold. The larger parties would see their seats increase if you did not include Kachalon and the poll was conducted with the new 3.25% threshold.

10 Additional Questions:

Should we conduct a ground operation in Gaza now?

63% Yes, 27% No

Do you believe that Israel can topple the Hamas regime in Gaza?

58% Yes, 35% No

Do you think that business owners that sustained damage during Operation Protective Edge will receive adequate financial compensation from the government?

55% No, 33% Yes

Are you pleased or not pleased from the conduct of the following people during Operation Protective Edge?

IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz: Pleased 75%, Not Pleased 14%
Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon: Pleased 59%, Not Pleased 32%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: Pleased 53%, Not Pleased 43%
Economy Minister Naftali Bennett: Pleased 43%, Not Pleased 48%
Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman: Pleased 38%, Not Pleased 57%
Finance Minister Yair Lapid: Pleased 33%, Not Pleased 52%

Other factors such as Justice Minister Livni & Opposition Leader Herzog were not polled.

Should the Prime Minister form a national unity government with the opposition parties to strengthen him during this operation?

60% No, 28% Yes

Did Prime Minister Netanyahu act correctly by firing Deputy Defense Minister Danon following Danon’s comments against the security cabinet decision?

Acted correctly 51%, did not act correctly 33%.

Among Likud voters: 54% Acted correctly, 24% did not act correctly.

Are Foreign Minister Liberman’s comments against the Prime Minister, against the security cabinet decision for a ceasefire and other decisions appropriate or not appropriate?

61% Not appropriate, 29% appropriate.

Is Israeli Hasbara succeeding in achieving international support for Operation Protective Edge?

51% No, 41% Yes

Should the Israeli government at some point work towards a ceasefire?

65% No, 27% Yes

Have you been in an area where a siren sounded since the beginning of Operation Protective Edge?

87% Yes, 13% No

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: 87% of Israelis have been under a siren, 65% reject a ceasefire, 63% support a ground operation, 58% feel IDF can topple Hamas. 51% support Netanyahu decision to fire Danon and 61% find Liberman’s behavior not appropriate.

Dialogue conducted a poll for Haaretz of 520 people, with a 4.3% margin of error on July 9th 2014 under the supervision of pollster Kamil Fox. He also took out a scenario poll in the case that Kachalon starts a party.

Poll 1: Knesset Parties as they are today

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [20] Likud

16 [12] Bayit Yehudi

15 [15] Labor

14 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

13 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

69 [61] Right-Religious

51 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Right-religious block of 69 seats is remarkable showing for Prime Minister Netanyahu & his right wing allies Foreign Minister Liberman and Economy Minister Bennett. The three right-wing parties gain 12 seats.

Poll #2: Scenario with Kachalon Party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

21 [20] Likud

16 [12] Bayit Yehudi

15 [--] Kachalon Party

13 [15] Labor

12 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

11 [19] Yesh Atid

09 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

04 [04] Hadash

00 [06] Movement

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

78 [61] Right-Religious-Kachalon

42 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: In this scenario poll the Right-religious-Kachalon block grows from 69 seats to 78 seats. Kachalon becomes the third largest party taking for Likud & Yisrael Beitenu, but more importantly taking seats from Labor, Yesh Atid, Meretz & throwing Livni’s party under the new 3.25% threshold. This is an obvious nightmare scenario for the center-left bloc.

Additional Questions:

What motivated Foreign Minister Liberman to split away from the Likud?

45% Personal political motives, 35% Principled motives, 20% Don’t know

Are you pleased or not pleased with the following public figures?

Defense Minister Yaalon: 57% Pleased, 26% Not pleased
Prime Minister Netanyahu: 40% Pleased, 50% Not pleased
Foreign Minister Liberman: 31% Pleased, 56% Not pleased
Finance Minister Lapid: 26% Pleased, 61% Not pleased
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Based on Haaretz’s last poll, Yaalon gained 3% in favorability and improved on his unfavorable numbers by 7%. Liberman’s favorability dropped 10% & his unfavorable numbers increased by 6%. Lapid & Netanyahu stayed pretty steady compared to the last poll. The other coalition factors Bennett & Livni were not polled.

Panels conducted a poll on July 7th, following the announcement of the Likud Beitenu split. It was published the next day on July 8th 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

21 [20] Likud

19 [15] Labor

18 [12] Bayit Yehudi

11 [19] Yesh Atid

11 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

11 [06] Meretz

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [11] Shas

05 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [03] Balad

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

00 [02] Kadima

63 [61] Right-Religious

57 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Likud-Yisrael Beitenu split gives the right-religious block a three seat advantage compared to the previous poll conducted before the split. However Likud is the clear loser from this split. Likud only has a two-seat edge over Labor & a three-seat edge over Bayit Yehudi. Labor or Bayit Yehudi could be the largest party in Knesset if you factor in the margin of error. I’m happy that every poll from now on will be divided up between Likud & Yisrael Beitenu because that has been obvious for a long time. Shas keeps falling and is now under UTJ. Livni’s party has an impressive showing of 5 seats after being under threshold in all recent polls.

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel July 3rd 2014.
The poll was conducted from afternoon of July 2nd until the morning of July 3rd.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [31] Likud Beitenu

21 [15] Labor

18 [12] Bayit Yehudi

13 [19] Yesh Atid

12 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

03 [06] Movement

00 [02] Kadima

60 [61] Right-Religious

60 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Bennett up, Netanyahu down. Prime Minister always goes down when he decides not to take action.

Additional Questions:

How should Israel react to Hamas in Gaza in response to murder of boys and escalation in the south?

62% Attack targets from the air
23% Ground attack in the strip
6% Restraint

Do you approve or not approve of the conduct of each one of the responsible factors during the events of the kidnapping?

Prime Minister Netanyahu: Approve 44%, Do not approve 51%
IDF (army): Approve 76%, Do not approve 19%
Shabak (shin bet): Approve 70%, Do not approve 21%
Police: Approve 13%, Do not approve 84%

Should an Investigative Committee be formed to investigate the conduct of the police surrounding the event of the boys abduction?

81% Yes, 14% No.

Should the Police Commishiner resign due to the conduct the police during the  event of the boys abduction?

39% Yes, 45% No.

Presidential Elections

Israel’s President is elected by the 120 MKs but many polling companies have polled the public’s opinion anyways.

These are the results of the latest Panels Poll:

Reuven Rivlin 35%

Dan Shechtman 30%

Dalia Dorner 9%

Binyamin Ben-Eliezer 5%

Meir Sheetrit 4%

Dalia Itzik 4%

* Nominations:

The largest group was the 49 MKs that didn’t sign for anyone, that included coalition leaders Netanyahu, Lapid, Bennett & Liberman.

Rivlin received 16 signatures: 7 Likud, 5 BY, 2 YA, 1 Shas, 1 UTJ.
Ben-Eliezer’s 13 signatures: All of them from Labor.
Sheetrit’s 11 signatures: Livni 6, 4 YA, 1 Shas.
Itzik’s 11 signatures: 4 Arabs, 2 Meretz, 2 YA, 2 YB, 1 Shas.
Dorner’s 10: 5 YA, 2 Arabs, 2 Meretz, 1 Shas.
Shechtman’s 10: 2 Meretz, 2 YA, 2 BY, Likud 1, Shas 1, Kadima 1, Arabs 1.

KnessetJeremy Take:

* The race in my eyes is who will meet Rivlin in the second round. There have never been six candidates on the ballot before, it is possible that some will drop out. It seem certain that there will be a second round. The new law states that a simple majority of votes will win, previously you needed to go through as many rounds as possible until a candidate won 61 votes.

* I’ll note that most MKs don’t take Shechtman or Dorner seriously, in order to obtain the 10 signatures necessary to make the ballot they had MKs who are supporting other candidates sign their registration forms. If they remain in the race they will receive single digits.

* I think it is too early to determine who will end up going head-to-head with Rivlin. It will be either Ben-Eliezer, Sheetrit or Itzik.

Many people think it will be Ben-Eliezer, but I don’t see anti-Rivlin YB or YA MKs voting for him, he couldn’t even get 1 signature from any other non-Labor opposition MK.

Others think it will be Itzick, but the only way she got on the ballot was with the support of 4 Arab MKs, not exactly the largest Knesset power base.

The key will be the 19 Yesh Atid MKs. In the nomination process they gave their signatures for 5 candidates (Rivlin, Shitrit, Itzick, Schectman, Dorner). No YA MK signed for Fuad. Lapid didn’t sign for anyone.

Smith conducted two polls that were published in Globes in May 30th.

The poll was conucted May 26-27 (before the Presidential Deadline and Rivlin endorsements by Bennett and Netanyahu).

The first poll was with the 12 Knesset factions as they are today.

The second poll was a scenario poll with a Kachalon Party, and Likud running separate from Yisrael Beitenu.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [31] Likud Beitenu

17 [15] Labor

15 [19] Yesh Atid

15 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [11] Shas

09 [06] Meretz

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

08 [07] Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad

04 [04] Hadash

00 [06] Movement

00 [02] Kadima

67 [61] Right-Religious

53 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

23 [20] Likud

15 [15] Labor

14 [--] Kachalon

13 [12] Bayit Yehudi

11 [19] Yesh Atid

09 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

09 [06] Meretz

08 [07] Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [04] Hadash

00 [06] Movement

00 [02] Kadima

73 [61] Right-Religious-Kachalon

47 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: If you consider Kachalon right wing (or at least more right over Lapid) he brings 6 additional seats over to the right-religious block. Livni is not able to pass the new threshold in either poll.

Smith conducted a poll that was published in Globes on May 1st.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [31] Likud Beitenu

19 [15] Labor

14 [19] Yesh Atid

12 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [11] Shas

10 [06] Meretz

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

04 [04] Hadash

04 [03] Balad

00 [06] Movement

00 [02] Kadima

65 [61] Right-Religious

55 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Likud Beitenu remains at the top. Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad all pass the new threshold but Livni’s party does not.

Which candidate is suitable to be the next Prime Minister?

36% none of the above, 32% Netanyahu, 13% Herzog, 8% Liberman, 6% Kachalon, 5% Lapid

Midgam conducted two polls broadcast by Channel 10 on April 17 2014.

The first poll added Kachalon as an option, has Likud & Beitenu running together and decided to run Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad together on a joint list.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [31] Likud Beitenu

16 [15] Labor

12 [--] Kachalon Party

11 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [19] Yesh Atid

09 [11] Shas

08 [06] Meretz

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [07] Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

01 [02] Kadima

58 [61] Right-Religious

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab

The second poll ran Kachalon & Beitenu together and decided to run Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad together on a joint list.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

23 [11] Yisrael Beitenu + Kachalon

19 [20] Likud

18 [15] Labor

10 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [11] Shas

08 [06] Meretz

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [07] Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad

04 [04] Hadash

03 [06] Movement

00 [02] Kadima

70 [61] Right-Religious

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Midgam conducted two polls of 500 people with a margin of error of 3.9% on April 9-10 and was published by Yediot Achronot on April 14 2014.

The polls used the new threshold of 3.25%.

The first poll added Kachalon as an option and decided to run Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad together on a joint list.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [31] Likud Beitenu

16 [15] Labor

12 [12] Bayit Yehudi

11 [--] Kachalon Party

10 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [06] Meretz

09 [11] Shas

08 [07] Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

00 [02] Kadima

57 [61] Right-Religious

52 [59] Center-Left-Arab

The second poll ran Likud and Beitenu as different parties, added Kachalon as an option and decided to run Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad together on a joint list.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

22 [20] Likud

16 [15] Labor

11 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

10 [06] Meretz

10 [--] Kachalon Party

08 [11] Shas

08 [07] Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

00 [02] Kadima

58 [61] Right-Religious

52 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: This is the first poll of the Knesset term where Likud Beitenu running together comes out under 30 seats. Seven parties in double digits. Kachalon is running in the low double digits in the results of every polling company. The difference of opinion seems to come on where the votes are coming from. The raising of the threshold does not seem to make such an impact in this poll.

Dialgoue conducted a poll that was published by Haaretz on April 11 2014.

The poll uses the old threshold of 2% instead of the new threshold of 3.25%. It also does not include Kachalon’s new party.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

37 [31] Likud Beitenu

15 [15] Labor

15 [12] Bayit Yehudi

14 [19] Yesh Atid

09 [06] Meretz

09 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

04 [04] Hadash

03 [06] Movement

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

68 [61] Right-Religious

53 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Hard to take analyze a poll with old threshold.

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