Tag Archive: Polls

Panels conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.3% margin of error that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on September 21st 2015. Some poll answers were not televised.

What grade do you give Ayelet Shaked as Justice Minister?

28% Very Good, 27% Good, 23% Average, 12% Bad

Do you support Minister Shaked’s position that not everything is “Justiciable” (subject to judicial review)?

57% Yes, 28% No, 15% No Opinion

Do you support Minister Shaked’s position that the current composition of judges is not balanced?

55% Yes, 25% No, 21% No Opinion

Do you support Minister Shaked’s position that judges intervene in areas that are not under their authority?

51% Yes, 31% No, 18% No Opinion (answers not televised)

Question only for Likud voters: Would you like to see Ayelet Shaked on the Likud list for Knesset?

54% Yes, 26% Don’t Know, 19% No

Question only for Bayit Yehudi voters: Which Bayit Yehudi MK do you most identify with?

39% Naftali Bennett, 16% Ayelet Shaked, 8% Yinon Magal, 5% Betzalel Smotrich, 4% Uri Ariel, 2% Eli Ben Dahan, 1% Moti Yogev, 1% Nissan Slomiansky (last three not televised)

If a new list to the right of Likud is formed, who would you like to lead it?

50% Bennett, 22% Don’t Know, 16% none of them, 8% Shaked, 5% Ariel (answers not televised)

*Note: I am translating the Hebrew word שפיט as “Justiciable”.

Panels conducted a poll of 500 people with a margin of a 4.3% margin of error that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on September 17th 2015.

Are you pleased with the way Netanyahu is acting against the current terror wave?

71% Not Pleased, 24% Pleased

On what level do you feel threatened by the current terror wave?

52% Pretty Threatened, 33% Not Threatened, 15% Very Threatened

Which of the following figures would you like to see in charge of dealing with the current terror wave?

26% Liberman, 21% Bennett, 15% Yaalon, 8% Erdan

Who do you think is primarily responsible for the current situation on the Temple Mount?

51% Palestinian Authority, 36% Israeli Government, 13% Don’t Know

Do you think both Jews and Muslims should have equal rights on the Temple Mount?

53% Yes, 36% No, 11% Don’t Know

Should the rights of Jews to pray on the Temple Mount be enforced even at the price of damage to the security situation?

51% No, 38% Yes, 11% Don’t Know

Would Yitzchak Herzog as Prime Minister have done a better job dealing with the current terror wave than Netanyahu?

65% No, 23% Don’t Know, 12% Yes

Would you prefer the next US President be a Republican or a Democrat?

33% Republican, 24% Either, 23% Democrat

Panels conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.3% margin of error that was published by Maariv on September 13 2015.

Who is the most trustworthy figure?

13% Naftali Bennett, 13% Benjamin Netanyahu, 11% Yair Lapid, 9% Gideon Saar, 9% Moshe Yaalon, 7% Moshe Kahlon, 5% Don’t Know, 4% Tzipi Livni, 3% Avigdor Liberman, 2% Gabi Ashkenazi, 16% None of the above.

Who is the most disappointing figure?

21% Benjamin Netanyahu, 17% Yair Lapid, 16% Moshe Kahlon, 15% Yitzchak Herzog, 9% Avigdor Liberman, 6% Aryeh Deri, 5% Don’t Know, 4% Zahava Gal-On, 4% Iman Udah, 2% Naftali Bennett, 1% Yaakov Litzman

Between these two candidates who would you like to see lead Israel over the upcoming years?

37% No Opinion, 34% Netanyahu, 29% Saar

52% Netanyahu, 25% Herzog, 23% No Opinion

48% Netanyahu, 28% No Opinion, 24% Lapid

45% Netanyahu, 37% No Opinion, 18% Kahlon

45% Netanyahu, 37% No Opinion, 18% Ashkenazi

44% No Opinion, 43% Netanyahu, 13% Yaalon

Should Israel absorb refugees from Syria?

70% No, 26% Yes, 4% Don’t Know

Does the Iran Deal endanger Israel?

77% Yes, 15% No, 8% Don’t Know

What comes first – Jewish State or Democratic State?

43% Jewish State, 31% Democratic State, 25% Jewish & Democratic State equally, 1% Don’t Know

Should soccer (football) be prohibited on the Sabbath?

57% No, 43% Yes

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on September 10th 2015.

Who would you vote for in the Labor Primaries?

22% Yachimovich, 11% Herzog, 8% Ashkenazi, 7% Huldai, 4% Peretz

(*Among Labor voters)

30% Herzog, 28% Yachimovich, 13% Ashkenazi, 9% Huldai, 0% Peretz

Do you think Minister Akunis was correct by resigning from his position as the Minister in charge of public broadcasting?

47% Yes, 32% No, 21% Don’t Know

Do you think Netanyahu was correct by not granting interviews to the press before the Jewish Newyear?

71% No, 16% Don’t Know, 13% Yes

Do you think lowering VAT to 17% will affect your pocket?

55% No, 30% Yes, 15% Don’t Know

Note: Only Labor members can vote in primary. The question was specifically aimed at Labor voters.


The day before the Knesset Channel released the ranking of top Ministers and MKs as a result of public polling, media appearances and analyst grading:

#1 Minister: Naftali Bennett

#2 Minister: Yisrael Katz

#3 Minister: Ayelet Shaked and Moshe Kahlon (tie)

#1 MK: Shelly Yachimovich

#2 MK: Moshe Gafni and Yair Lapid (tie)

#3 MK: Speaker Yuli Edelstein

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on September 7th 2015.

Which Faction Leader is the biggest disappointment of the year?

23% Kahlon (Kulanu), 19% Herzog (Zionist Union), 18% Lapid (Yesh Atid), 12% Liberman (Yisrael Beitenu), 8% Deri (Shas), 6% Bennett (Bayit Yehudi), 5% Gal-On (Meretz), 4% Odah (The Joint List), 1% Litzman (UTJ)

Which Faction leader is the biggest success of the year?

25% Bennett (Bayit Yehudi), 15% Litzman (UTJ), 12% Lapid (Yesh Atid), 10% Kahlon (Kulanu), 6% Liberman (Yisrael Beitenu), 4% Deri (Shas), 4% Gal-On (Meretz), 4% Herzog (Zionist Union), 3% Odah (The Joint List)

Panels conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.5% margin of error that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on September 3rd 2015.

No Israeli public poll has been conducted on the distribution of seats since the March election.

Do you understand the Arrangements Bill and the State Budget?

70% No, 20% Yes

Does Sharon Gal’s resignation harm Yisrael Beytenu?

52% No impact, 21% Harm Party, 12% Help Party

Does Shai Piron’s resignation harm Yesh Atid?

42%, No impact, 25% Harm Party, 10% Help Party

Who is the most fit to lead the Right?
(Only those who define themselves as right-wing)

36% Netanyahu, 31% Bennett, 14% none of the above, 9% Liberman

(Among Likud voters)

72% Netanyahu, 12% Saar, 4% none of the above, 3% Erdan, 3% Ya’alon, 1% Shalom

Party Seats Smith -17 Teleseker -17 New Wave -17 Panels -19 Dialog -19 Midgam -19 Geo -20 Maagar Mochot -23 TRI -23
Likud 30 21 -9 23 -7 23 -7 21 -9 20 -10 22 -8 26 -4 21 -9 24 -6
Zionist Union 24 25 -1 25 -1 23 -1 25 -1 24 26 -2 21 -3 24 24
The Joint List 13 13 12 -1 13 13 13 13 12 -1 12 -1 12 -1
Yesh Atid 11 11 12 -1 13 -2 13 -2 12 -1 12 -1 12 -1 13 -2 14 -3
Kulanu 10 9 -1 9 -1 9 -1 10 10 8 -2 8 -2 8 -2 8 -2
Bayit Yehudi 8 11 -3 11 -3 12 -4 11 -3 12 -4 11 -3 13 -5 13 -5 12 -4
Shas 7 9 -2 7 6 -1 7 7 7 8 -1 7 5 -2
Yisrael Beitenu 6 6 6 6 4 -2 5 -1 5 -1 7 -1 5 -1 4 -2
UTJ 6 6 7 -1 6 6 7 -1 6 8 -2 7 -1 7 -1
Merertz 5 5 4 -1 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 -1
Yachad 0 (3) 4 -1 4 -1 4 -1 5 -2 5 -2 5 -2 3 5 -2 4 -1


Company Off by Last Poll
Smith -17 13-Mar
Telesker -17 13-Mar
New Wave -17 6-Mar
Panels -19 13-Mar
Dialog -19 14-Mar
Midgam -19 14-Mar
Geo -20 8-Mar
Maagar Mochot -23 12-Mar
TRI -23 10-Mar

The only pollster to correctly predict Netanyahu’s Phase 2 partners at 67 seats vs his non-Phase 2 partners at 53 seats is Teleseker.

Smith, New Wave, Dialog and Maagar Mochot predicted 66 seats, Panels, Midgam and TRI predicted 64,  Geocartography predicted 70.

Party Exit Poll AVG Knesset Jeremy Model Results after 99.9% Results vs Exits Results vs KJ
Likud 26.2 22 30 +3.8 +8
Zionist Union 25.6 25 24 -1.6 -1
Joint Arab List 13 12 13 0 +1
Yesh Atid 11.8 12 11 -0.8 -1
Kulanu 9.6 9 10 +0.4 +1
Bayit Yehudi 8.4 12 8 -0.4 -4
Shas 7.2 7 7 -0.2 0
UTJ 6.6 7 6 -0.6 -1
Yisrael Beitenu 5.2 5 6 +0.8 +1
Meretz 5.2 5 5 -0.2 0
Yachad 3.2 4 0 (3) -0.2 -1


* Both Exit Poll average and Knesset Jeremy average are within 1 seat on 9 of the 11 parties.

* Exit polls are very close to the current results with the exception of Likud that is at +3.8.

* Knesset Jeremy Model published last week is very close to the results with the exception of Likud gaining at the expense of Bayit Yehudi.


* Likud is the “Yesh Atid” of the 2015 elections.

* Likud gradually gained at the expense of Bayit Yehudi during the last four-five days before the elections as indicated by internal polls that were prohibited from being published by Israeli law.

* Likud gain at expense of Bayit Yehudi is similar on a mathematical level to Yesh Atid gain at expense of Bayit Yehudi in previous election.

* Last polls gave us an accurate picture of Thursday-Friday before Likud’s strategic voting offensive against the right was launched.

* Exit polls missed Likud by close to four seats because their model missed a specific demographic or geographic area.

* It will probably take a few days of going over data to understand what they missed.

* Group of parties that are expected to nominate Prime Minister Netanyahu according to Phase 2 prediction was 66 in the Knesset Jeremy Model and that group is now currently at 67.

*This proves that the last minute shift was within the blocs.


* People are going to focus too much on the polls getting Likud wrong and not enough on the polls more or less getting everything else right.

* I’m looking forward to an interesting and exciting Phase 2 process where I expect Kulanu, Bayit Yehudi, Shas, UTJ and Yisrael Beitenu to join Likud in nominating Prime Minister Netanyahu to get first crack at putting together his fourth term as Prime Minister.


The table has been updated to reflect over 200,000 double envelope votes that were counted on March 19.

Party Channel 2 Channel 10 Channel 1 Channel 99 Channel 20 Exit Poll AVG Knesset Jeremy Model Difference
Likud 28 27 27 26 23 26.2 22 4.2
Zionist Union 27 27 27 27 20 25.6 25 0.6
Joint Arab List 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 1
Yesh Atid 12 11 12 12 12 11.8 12 -0.2
Kulanu 9 10 10 10 9 9.6 9 0.6
Bayit Yehudi 8 8 9 9 8 8.4 12 -3.6
Shas 7 7 7 7 8 7.2 7 0.2
UTJ 6 7 6 6 8 6.6 7 -0.4
Yisrael Beitenu 5 5 5 5 6 5.2 5 0.2
Meretz 5 5 5 5 6 5.2 5 0.2
Yachad 3 3 3 3 4 3.2 4 -0.8

According to the average of exit polls, Knesset Jeremy Model predicted 9 of 11 parties within one seat.

The exception being the transfer of votes from Bayit Yehudi to Likud in the final days at an advanced rate.

Phase 2 Prediction Analysis

Yesterday I focused on Phase 1.

Two days ago I posted the Knesset Jeremy Model Prediction for 2015.

Zionist Union 25
Likud 22
The Joint (Arab) List 12
Yesh Atid 12
Bayit Yehudi 12
Kulanu 9
Shas 7
Yisrael Beitenu 5
Meretz 5
Yachad 4

I listed the two most likely scenarios for Phase 2:

Possible Netanyahu Phase 2: Likud (22), Bayit Yehudi (12), Kulanu (9), Shas (7), UTJ (7), Yisrael Beitenu (5), Yachad (4) =66

Possible Herzog Phase 2: Zionist Union (25), The Joint (Arab) List (12), Yesh Atid (12), Kulanu (9), Meretz (5) =63

Timeline between Phase 1 and 2, and exactly how Phase 2 works:

Tomorrow at 10 PM Israel time the voting will end and election polls will be closed. Those who enter the polling station before 10 PM will still be allowed to vote. Each of the 10,119 polling stations across 3,200 sites will have a committee of three people, representing three different parties and those three people will tally the votes by hand. The party representatives will text the results to their headquarters so that the Party Leaders know the results before the television journalists. The official results will be entered into the computer and published on the Central Elections Committee website http://bechirot.gov.il/ as the night goes on.

The focus will be on the exit polls until the middle of the night when a good percentage of the vote will have been counted. By the morning we should have most of the votes in and the Phase 1 results should be rather clear. The “double-envelope” votes will not be included in these initial results. These are votes by citizens who voted overseas or in Israeli army bases, specialized handicap stations, hospitals, jails or polling station committee members. These votes will be counted afterwards in the Knesset itself. Expect a slight shift of a seat-or-two in the final Phase 1 results after the double-envelope votes are counted.

Phase 2: The newly elected Knesset will be sworn in on March 31st. We will not have a government, but we should know who will get the first crack at putting together a government by that date. President Rivlin is expected to meet with the Knesset factions in an official capacity on March 24th, but he is most likely going to already start working unofficial channels after the election results are clear.

The law for some reason does not take the size of a party into account. The law requires President Rivlin to sit with all of the newly elected lists before making a decision on who should get the first crack at forming a new government. President Rivlin is looking to pressure all of the parties to make a decision, but most likely he will not need to. The last time someone didn’t receive a majority of votes in Phase 2 or the first person to receive that nod was not able to form a government was back in the 1980s. Historically, the issue that forced national unity governments was that the two largest parties had too many seats and it was impossible to form a coalition with the few small parties that passed the threshold in lower single-digits. This all changed with the rise of the middle-sized “kingmaker” parties. The unofficial negotiations that are conducted between Phase 1 and Phase 2 have always enabled one of the Prime Minister candidates to reach enough support to get the first crack.


Bottom line my prediction is that it will not be in President Rivlin’s hands. Someone is going to get a majority. The President has also made it clear that he will do everything in his power to force the parties to make a choice and not drag it out.

The parties visit the President in order of party size. Zionist Union will nominate Herzog. Likud will nominate Netanyahu. The Joint List party head who is from Hadash will nominate Herzog but the leaders of Ra’am and Balad will warn President Rivlin that their list head is not speaking for all of the parties on the list. By law Rivlin will count The Joint List’s votes but will take Ra’am and Balad into account to determine “who has the best chance at forming a coalition” in the event no one gets 61 seats. Yesh Atid will nominate Herzog. Bayit Yehudi will nominate Netanyahu. I predict this is where Rivlin will call it a day for the first day of deliberations.

I expect President Rivlin to start Day 2 of Phase 2 with Kahlon. Kahlon can go either way, but my feeling is that because Trajtenberg and Lapid are above him on the Finance Ministry Portfolio list that Kahlon goes with Netanyahu who had already offered him that position. I could be wrong here but it just seems like Herzog will have a tough job giving Kahlon a competitive offer compared to Netanyahu. I expect both UTJ and Shas to nominate Netanyahu again in return for Haredi funding and the sorts. It is possible that one of the parties in UTJ will not be happy with the Phase 2 decision to nominate Netanyahu.

Liberman might nominate himself to get out of Rivlin’s pressure tactics. He is capable of doing this, but most likely it is an empty threat to milk a better deal out of Netanyahu. Yisrael Beitenu showed their right-wing colors at the right’s rally yesterday and Liberman’s top campaign promises include killing jailed terrorists. This is not exactly the type of thing that you see from a candidate that is angling for a Herzog government invitation. Liberman prefers a national-unity-government but will most likely go for Netanyahu when he sees it is unlikely to happen. Meretz will endorse Herzog and Yachad will endorse Netanyahu. I expect Rivlin to officially give Netanyahu the first crack at a new coalition next weekend.

Netanyahu is going to have problems forming coalition agreements with six additional parties and the people are going to question the legitimacy of a government where the largest party once again does not rule the country. That is our system. It is possible Netanyahu doesn’t reach Phase 3 and that Herzog gets a nod to be the second person to try Phase 2, although I doubt it. It is because of this scenario (and others), that I am going to hold off on my Phase 3 predictions until after the official election results. Of course if Herzog scores the Kahlon nominating some how, he will get the first crack at forming a government.

I want to thank Five Thirty Eight for their interview with me that was released today, to the Huffington Post for using my model as their basis, the many publications that have been linking and crediting my site including the Washington Post and Jerusalem Post. I have started to commit to media appearances tomorrow and others who are interested know how to get in touch.

To all of my loyal readers in Israel – Please exercise your democratic right and vote!


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