Tag Archive: politics


Report: Probable look at Netanyahu government, his 21 ministers and 8 deputy ministers.

 

Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud) Prime Minister , Minister of Foreign Affairs

 

Moshe Ya`alon (Likud) Minister of Defense

Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) Minister of Finance

Naftali Bennett (Bayit Yehudi) Minister of Economy, Industry, Trade, and Labor, Minister of Religious Services, Minister of Diaspora Affairs and Jerusalem

 

Tzipi Livni (Livni Party) Minister of Justice

Gideon Sa`ar (Likud) Minister of Internal Affairs

Shai Piron (Yesh Atid) Minister of Education

 

Yitzhak Aharonovitch (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Internal Security

Uri Ariel (Bayit Yehudi) Minister of Housing and Construction

Yael German  (Yesh Atid) Minister of Health

 

Uzi Landau (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Tourism

Yisrael Katz (Likud) Minister of Transportation, National Infrastructure, and Road Safety

Gilad Erdan (Likud) Minister of Communications and Minister of Home Front Defence

Yaakov Perry (Yesh Atid) Minister of Science and Technology

Limor Livnat (Likud) Minister of Culture and Sport

 

Yair Shamir (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development

Meir Cohen (Yesh Atid) Minister of Welfare and Social Services

Uri Orbach (Bayit Yehudi) Minister for Senior Citizens

Amir Peretz (Livni Party) Minister of Environmental Protection

Sofa Landver (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Immigrant Absorption

 

** Silvan Shalom (Likud) Minister of Energy and Water, Minister of the Development of the Negev and Galil, (possibly Minister of Regional Cooperation)

** Yuval Steinitz (Likud) Minister of Intelligence and Atomic Energy and Minister of Strategic Affairs

 

** = Pending

 

Reported Defense Ministers:

Deputy Defense Danon (Likud)

Deputy Foreign Elkin (Likud)

Deputy Education Vortzman (Bayit Yehudi)

Deputy Religious Ben Dahan (Bayit Yehudi)

Deputy Welfare Minister Levy (Yesh Atid)

Deputy Minister Akunis (Likud)

+ 2 more

 

* I will update this page as thing change.

 

I’m looking forward to Monday, that is most likely the day we will swear in a new government. Coalition deals should be on Knesset table Sunday. There is a 24-hour period in between.

Results of the 6 smaller parties of the 12 that were elected, along with adjusted error rates.

Range of polling company errors was from 14 ro 25.5 seats of Knesset’s 120 seats.

Part 1: http://knessetjeremy.com/2013/01/16/knesset-jeremy-2009-election-poll-analysis/

 

Polling   Company/Party Raam-Taal Hadash N. Union J. Home Balad Meretz Error Rate
Actual   Results 4 4 4 3 3 3 0
Correct   Guesses 2 of 10 6 of 10 5 of 10 5 of 10 2 of 10 0 of 10 10 of 10
Panels 3 4 4 3 2 6 14
Maagar   Mochot 3 3 2 3 3 5 15
Smith 3.5 4 3.5 3.5 3 5 15.5
Dialog   1 3 3 4 2 2 7 18
Dialog   2 3 3 4 2 2 6 18
Midgam   (Meno Gava) 4 4 3 3 2 5 18
Teleseker 4 4 3 3 2 6 20
Shvakim   Panorama 3 4 4 4 2 5 20
Dahaf 3 4 4 3 2 5 20
Gal   Hadash/New Wave 3 5 3 2 0 6 24
Geocartography 3 5 6 2 0 5 25.5

Knesset Jeremy 2009 Election Poll Analysis

12 lists were elected in 2009.

10 polling companies conducted 11 polls (one company took out two) in the last 2 days that polling was allowed ahead of the Israeli election.

Below is a table of the top 6 parties.

Polling   Company/Party Kadima Likud YB Labor Shas UTJ Error Rate
Actual Results 28 27 15 13 11 5 0
Correct Guesses 0 of 10 2 of 10 0 of 10 1 of 10 1 of 10 6 of 10 10 of 10
Panels 25 26 18 14 10 5 9
Maagar Mochot 24 27 18 13 10 6 9
Dialog 1 25 27 18 14 9 6 10
Dialog 2 25 27 19 14 9 6 11
Smith 23 26 17.5 15.5 10 5 12
Gal Hadash 24 30 17 16 9 5 14
Midgam (Meno Gava) 23 28 19 16 10 5 14
Teleseker 23 26 19 17 10 5 15
Shvakim Panorama 21 25 16 16 11 7 15
Geocartography 22.5 26 20.5 15.5 10 5 15.5
Dahaf 23 25 19 16 10 6 16

Error Rate: How many seats they were off in total

Findings: Panels and Maagar Mochot tied with lowest error rate of 9 seats among the 6 largest parties vs Mina Tzemach’s Dahaf which had the highest error rate of 16 seats.

Polling of the 6 smaller parties proved more difficult. Ra’am-Ta’al, Hadash, National Union, Jewish Home, Meretz and Balad all received either 3 or 4 seats and gathered between 114,000 to 83,000 votes overall. Maagar Mochot was one of the polling companies that got things very wrong when it came to the smaller parties.

Overall, my conclusion stands that Menachem Lazar’s Panels is the most trusted polling company and Mina Tzemeach’s Dahaf is the most overrated.

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #7 (week of Nov 18-24) of 7 polls (3 Channel 2 polls, Ma’ariv, Ha’aretz, Knesset Channel and ICPT):

Current Knesset seats in [brackets], Week 5 average in (brackets)

38.0 (37.0) [42] Likud Beitenu
21.4 (21.5) [08] Labor
11.8 (11.0) [10] Shas
11.1 (13.0) [--] Yesh Atid
9.5 (11.0) [05] National Union-Jewish Home
5.7 (5.0) [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
4.0 (4.5) [03] Meretz
3.8 (3.5) [04] Hadash
3.5 (3.0) [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
3.2 (3.5) [03] Balad
2.7 (2.5) [01] Am Shalem
1.8 (2.5) [05] Independence
1.4 (0.0) [02] Strong Israel
1.0 (2.0) [28] Kadima

69.5 (66.5) [65] Right
50.8 (53.5) [55] Center-Left

Note: I didn’t include Livni Party scenario polls because she has not announced yet the formation of her party. Deadline for all parties to submit their lists is December 6th.

Dahaf poll of 500 people with an error of +/- 4.4% was conducted for Channel 2 and broadcast on November 23 2012. First poll was asked on November 22 and the second poll without Livni party on November 20.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

34 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
19 [08] Labor
11 [10] Shas
10 [05] Jewish Home and National Union
10 [---] Yesh Atid
10 [---] New Livni Party
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [05] Independence
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
04 [03] Meretz
03 [03] Balad
02 [02] Strong Israel
00 [01] Am Shalem
00 [28] Kadima

62 [65] Right
58 [55] Center-Left

Without Livni Party:

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

40 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
21 [08] Labor
14 [---] Yesh Atid
11 [10] Shas
09 [05] Jewish Home and National Union
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
04 [03] Meretz
03 [03] Balad
02 [02] Strong Israel
02 [01] Am Shalem
00 [28] Kadima
00 [05] Independence

68 [65] Right
52 [55] Center-Left

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #4 (week of Oct 29-Nov 4) of 7 polls (Teleseker, two Panels, Dahaf, Geocartography, Smith, Dahaf):

Current Knesset seats in [brackets], Week 3 average in (brackets)

38 (36.6) [42] Likud Beitenu
22.1 (24.3) [08] Labor
14.7 (13.3) [---] Yesh Atid
11.7 (12) [10] Shas
9.1 (09) [07] National Union-Jewish Home
5.8 (5.3) [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
4.2 (05) [03] Meretz
4.0 (04) [04] Hadash
3.7 (3.3) [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
3.1 (03) [03] Balad
1.7 (2.6) [28] Kadima
0.5 (01) [05] Independence

03 [01] Am Shalem (based on 2 of 7 polls)

1.5 in one poll for Pensioners and Green Party each

66.3 (63) [65] Right
53.6 (57) [55] Center-Left

Panels Pollitics Polling conducted the first poll following the dramatic Netanyahu – Liberman unity deal and asked 305 people on Oct 25 2012. The results were presented on Channel 2 shortly after midnight.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

33 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
27 [08] Labor
18 [---] Yesh Atid
13 [07] National Union – Jewish Home
09 [11] Shas
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
00 [28] Kadima
00 [05] Independence

60 [65] Right
60 [55] Center-Left

Globes Poll conducted by Smith.

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats)
Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
28 [27] Likud
19 [08] Labor
16 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
11 [---] Yesh Atid
10 [11] Shas
09 [07] National Union/Jewish Home
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [28] Kadima
04 [03] Meretz
02 [05] Independence
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad

69 [65] Right
51 [55] Center-Left

Israel Radio Poll by Smith from 14 Sep 2012

If elections were held today who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [27] Likud
19 [08] Labor
15 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
11 [---] Yesh Atid
10 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Jewish Home
05 [28] Kadima
04 [03] Meretz
03 [04] National Union
03 [05] Independence
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
67 [65] Right
53 [55] Center-Left

Aug 1 2012 poll published by Globes and conducted by Smith.

If elections were held today who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [27] Likud
19 [08] Labor
15 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
13 [---] Yesh Atid
09 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Jewish Home
04 [04] National Union
04 [03] Meretz
04 [28] Kadima
03 [05] Independence
00 [--] Green Movement
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad

66 [65] Right
54 [55] Center-Left

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 534 other followers