Tag Archive: likud


Likud 2015 List:

Number-Name (previous ranking in 2013 &2009)

1 – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (#1 in 2013 & 2009)

2 – Minister Gilad Erdan (#3 in 2013 & 2009)

3 – Speaker Yuli Edelstein (#12 in 2013 & 2009)

4 – Minister Yisrael Katz (#5 in 2013, #11 in 2009)

5 – MK Miri Regev (#14 in 2013, #27 in 2009)

6 – Minister Silvan Shalom (#4 in 2013, #7 in 2009)

7 – Minister Moshe Yaalon (#8 in 2013 & 2009)

8 – Former Deputy Minister Zeev Elkin (#9 in 2013, #20 in 2009)

9 – Former Deputy Minister Danny Danon (#6 in 2013, #24 in 2009)

10 – MK Yariv Levin (#11 in 2013, #21 in 2009)

11 – Netanyahu Reserved Spot

12 – Deputy Minister Tzachi Hanegbi (#17 in 2013, Kadima MK in 2009)

13 – Minister Yuval Steinitz (#16 in 2013, #9 in 2009)

14 – Former Deputy Minister Gila Gamliel (#20 in 2013, #19 in 2009)

15 – Deputy Minister Ofir Akunis (#19 in 2013, #26 in 2009)

16 – New District Position

17 – MK Haim Katz (#13 in 2013, #14 in 2009)

18 – New District Position

19 – New District Position

20 – Former Minister Avi Dichter (#59 in 2013, Kadima MK in 2009)

Other notables

24 – Former Deputy Minister Ayoub Kara (#39 in 2013, #23 in 2009) – Spot reserved for non-Jew.

26 – Deputy Minister Tzipi Hotovely (#10 in 2013, #18 in 2009)

36 – MK Moshe Feiglin (#15 in 2013, #36 in 2009)

37 – Former Deputy Minister Michael Ratzon (sat out 2013, #37 in 2009)

_______________________________________________________________________________

Voting

Name – 2014 Votes (2012 votes)

Erdan – 38,517 (44,875)

Edelstein – 35,893 (29,138)

Y Katz – 35,510 (41,662)

Regev – 33,385 (27,999)

Shalom – 29,808 (41,957)

Ya’alon – 27,973 (34,458)

Elkin – 25,879 (31,060)

Danon – 24,797 (36,881)

Levin – 24,258 (29,381)

Hanegbi – 24,146 (23,561)

Steinitz – 23,525 (26,109)

Gamliel –23,093 (21,843)

Akunis – 22,856 (22,898)

C Katz – 22,575 (29,035)

Dichter – 20,892 (21,455)

Hotovely – 20,837 (28,133)

Feiglin – 14,581 (26,472)

Kara – 13,963 (12,858)

Ratzon – 10,731

Note: 38 candidates ran for Likud ‘national list’. I am only providing results for the top 19 candidates.

_______________________________________________________________________________

Analysis

The Likud moved to the center in the 2015 primaries. Former Kadima MK Avi Dichter bumps right-wing MKs Moshe Feiglin & Tzipi Hotoveli off the list and MKs Danny Danon was bumped down the list. The Likud’s Top 20 will only have 2 female candidates and no one under the age of 40. Likud lost members over the last two years and turnout was lower this time as well. The only candidates in realistic spots who improved in terms of actual votes were Speaker Edelstein, MK Hanegbi and female MKs Regev and Gamliel.

The winner of the primary is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who is very happy with the results. The new Electoral Reform Bill will go into effect and limit the next government to 18 ministers and 4 deputy ministers.  Just like last time, expect Netanyahu to ignore the actual order of the list and to appoint whoever he wants for Likud’s top positions in the next government. This time there will be less to go around.

* Updated to reflect changes in voting after recount of Jan 4 2015.

Today is the Likud Primaries.
No matter what the results are, the press will determine that the party has gone to the right, as they do every election.
There are 38 people running for the national list and each Likud member must vote for 11.
So, I thought it would be a good idea to present the list of the 11 most right-wing candidates.
This way we can all note how some of them did not get in and that the Likud did not “elect the most right-wing candidates possible”.

The list:

102 אדלשטיין יולי יואל
103 אלקין זאב
105 ארדן גלעד
110 דנון דני
116 חוטובלי ציפי
121 לוין יריב
125 מלכה ישעיהו שי
129 פייגלין משה זלמן
133 קרא איוב
135 רצון מיכאל
138 שטרן שבח

 

I am not a Likud member but if I was I would vote for these people.

Ofir Akunis, Gabi Avital, Benny Begin, Danny Danon, Yuli Edelstein, Zeev Elkin, Gilad Erdan, David Hermlin, Yariv Levin, Reuven Rivlin, Gideon Sa’ar and Daniel Tauber

Note: I would probably vote for less than 12 people but I know it is required to vote for at least 12.

Aug 1 2012 poll published by Globes and conducted by Smith.

If elections were held today who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [27] Likud
19 [08] Labor
15 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
13 [—] Yesh Atid
09 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Jewish Home
04 [04] National Union
04 [03] Meretz
04 [28] Kadima
03 [05] Independence
00 [–] Green Movement
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad

66 [65] Right
54 [55] Center-Left

Geocartography Poll posted by Srugim.

If elections were held today who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

37 [27] Likud
16 [08] Labor
13 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
09 [—] Yesh Atid
07 [11] Shas
06 [28] Kadima
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
05 [03] Jewish Home
04 [04] National Union
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
00 [05] Independence

72 [65] Right
48 [55] Center-Left

The poll was conducted June 3 2012 and broadcast on Knesset Channel 99 the next day.

The sampling size was 506 Israelis and the margin of error is 4.3%.

If elections were held today who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

17 [27] New Likud with Netanyahu
16 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
16 [08] Labor
15 [—] Yesh Atid
13 [–] Likud without Netanyahu
08 [11] Shas
06 [04] National Union
06 [03] Meretz
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [03] Jewish Home
04 [04] Hadash
04 [03] Balad
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [28] Kadima
00 [05] Independence

Right 69 Center-Left 51

The poll was conducted June 3 2012 and broadcast on Knesset Channel 99 the next day.

The sampling size was 506 Israelis and the margin of error is 4.3%.

If elections were held today who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [27] Likud
18 [08] Labor
15 [—] Yesh Atid
12 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
09 [11] Shas
07 [03] Meretz
06 [04] National Union
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [28] Kadima
04 [04] Hadash
04 [03] Balad
03 [03] Jewish Home
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
00 [05] Independence

Right 64 Center-Left 56

Globes poll conducted by Smith institue, published on June 1st 2012, around three weeks after the begining of the national unity government. Smith polled 500 people that make up the usual Israeli demographic with a 4.5% margin of error. In a scenario poll were they asked whow would vote for Livni with the Kadima rebels, the answer was 10 seats.

If elections were held today who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [27] Likud
19 [08] Labor
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
08 [—] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
08 [11] Shas
07 [28] Kadima
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] National Union
04 [04] Hadash
04 [03] Jewish Home
04 [03] Meretz
04 [03] Balad
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
02 [05] Independence
00 Am Shalem (Amsalem)
00 Green Movement

Rafi Smith Institute Poll for “Globes” on April 30, 2012.

The survey was carried out among a representative sample of 500 voters. Sampling error: 4.5%.

If elections were held today who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
31 [27] Likud
15 [08] Labor
15 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
13 [28] Kadima
11 [–] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
08 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] National Union
03 [03] Jewish Home
03 [03] Meretz
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
00 [05] Independence

The poll was a survey of 500 Israelis conducted on April 25, 2012, and published on April 29 with a margin of error of ±4.5%.

If elections were held today who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
31 [27] Likud
17 [08] Labor
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
13 [28] Kadima
12 [—] Yesh Atid (Lapid)
09 [11] Shas
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
03 [03] Jewish Home
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
02 [04] National Union
00 [05] Independence
00 Am Shalem (Amsalem)

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