Tag Archive: Likud Beitenu


Midgam conducted two polls broadcast by Channel 10 on April 17 2014.

The first poll added Kachalon as an option, has Likud & Beitenu running together and decided to run Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad together on a joint list.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [31] Likud Beitenu

16 [15] Labor

12 [--] Kachalon Party

11 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [19] Yesh Atid

09 [11] Shas

08 [06] Meretz

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [07] Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

01 [02] Kadima

58 [61] Right-Religious

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab

The second poll ran Kachalon & Beitenu together and decided to run Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad together on a joint list.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

23 [11] Yisrael Beitenu + Kachalon

19 [20] Likud

18 [15] Labor

10 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [11] Shas

08 [06] Meretz

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [07] Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad

04 [04] Hadash

03 [06] Movement

00 [02] Kadima

70 [61] Right-Religious

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Midgam conducted two polls of 500 people with a margin of error of 3.9% on April 9-10 and was published by Yediot Achronot on April 14 2014.

The polls used the new threshold of 3.25%.

The first poll added Kachalon as an option and decided to run Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad together on a joint list.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [31] Likud Beitenu

16 [15] Labor

12 [12] Bayit Yehudi

11 [--] Kachalon Party

10 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [06] Meretz

09 [11] Shas

08 [07] Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

00 [02] Kadima

57 [61] Right-Religious

52 [59] Center-Left-Arab

The second poll ran Likud and Beitenu as different parties, added Kachalon as an option and decided to run Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad together on a joint list.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

22 [20] Likud

16 [15] Labor

11 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

10 [06] Meretz

10 [--] Kachalon Party

08 [11] Shas

08 [07] Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

00 [02] Kadima

58 [61] Right-Religious

52 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: This is the first poll of the Knesset term where Likud Beitenu running together comes out under 30 seats. Seven parties in double digits. Kachalon is running in the low double digits in the results of every polling company. The difference of opinion seems to come on where the votes are coming from. The raising of the threshold does not seem to make such an impact in this poll.

Dialgoue conducted a poll that was published by Haaretz on April 11 2014.

The poll uses the old threshold of 2% instead of the new threshold of 3.25%. It also does not include Kachalon’s new party.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

37 [31] Likud Beitenu

15 [15] Labor

15 [12] Bayit Yehudi

14 [19] Yesh Atid

09 [06] Meretz

09 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

04 [04] Hadash

03 [06] Movement

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

68 [61] Right-Religious

53 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Hard to take analyze a poll with old threshold.

Panels conducted a Kachalon scenario poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel April 10th 2014.

The poll used the new threshold (3.25%).

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [31] Likud Beitenu

19 [15] Labor

13 [19] Yesh Atid

13 [12] Bayit Yehudi

13 [--] New Kachalon Party

12 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [04] Hadash

00 [15] Movement, Ra’am-Ta’al, Balad and Kadima don’t pass threshold.

59 [61] Right-Religious

48 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: These numbers would be different if they polled all Arab parties together.

Midgam conducted two Kachalon scenario polls on April 8th 2014 that was broadcast by Channel 10 News.

The polls use the new threshold (3.25%).

First poll is with Likud Beitenu together:

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [31] Likud Beitenu

14 [15] Labor

13 [12] Bayit Yehudi

12 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [--] New Kachalon Party

08 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [06] Movement

12 [12] New Hadash- Ra’am-Ta’al-Balad Party

00 [02] Kadima
60 [61] Right-Religious

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab


Second poll with Likud and Beitenu separate:


Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [20] Likud

14 [15] Labor

13 [12] Bayit Yehudi

11 [19] Yesh Atid

11 [--] New Kachalon Party

08 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [11] Beitenu

04 [06] Movement

12 [12] New Hadash- Ra’am-Ta’al-Balad Party

00 [02] Kadima
60 [61] Right-Religious

49 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Likud is not taking a hit with the probable Kachalon return to politics. Although, if they run separately, Beitenu drops to 5 seats which is close to the new threshold he helped push through. Irony, huh? Labor is the real loser of the Kachalon return and barely keeps possession of second place. Many Israelis identify with Kachalon’s economic positions and Herzog’s emphasis on the diplomatic issues means little to many Israelis who care more about their daily lives. Kachalon is also more to the right when it comes to diplomatic/defense/national security issues, so this is a victory for the right in disguise. Yesh Atid does not suffer any further from a new player fighting over the centrist vote, although I expect that to change. Meretz who had enjoyed a recent bump loses a handful of seats to Kachalon as well. Shas keeps going down. Livni’s Movement Party actually passes the threshold. With the new threshold, only Kadima fails to pass it. Although things might change down the road, taking this one poll for what it is if I were Netanyahu, I might be happy to see a Kachalon Party.

Smith conducted a poll that was pub;ished by Globes on Nov 1 2013.
Additionally, they conducted a scenario poll where Likud and Yisrael Beitenu are split.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [31] Likud Beitenu

17 [15] Labor

13 [12] Bayit Yehudi

12 [19] Yesh Atid

12 [11] Shas

11 [06] Meretz

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [06] Movement

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

66 [61] Right-Religious

54 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Scenario Poll: Likud and Yisrael Beitenu split.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [20] Likud

17 [15] Labor

16 [12] Bayit Yehudi

12 [19] Yesh Atid

12 [11] Shas

11 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [06] Movement

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

66 [61] Right-Religious

54 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Report: Probable look at Netanyahu government, his 21 ministers and 8 deputy ministers.

 

Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud) Prime Minister , Minister of Foreign Affairs

 

Moshe Ya`alon (Likud) Minister of Defense

Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) Minister of Finance

Naftali Bennett (Bayit Yehudi) Minister of Economy, Industry, Trade, and Labor, Minister of Religious Services, Minister of Diaspora Affairs and Jerusalem

 

Tzipi Livni (Livni Party) Minister of Justice

Gideon Sa`ar (Likud) Minister of Internal Affairs

Shai Piron (Yesh Atid) Minister of Education

 

Yitzhak Aharonovitch (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Internal Security

Uri Ariel (Bayit Yehudi) Minister of Housing and Construction

Yael German  (Yesh Atid) Minister of Health

 

Uzi Landau (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Tourism

Yisrael Katz (Likud) Minister of Transportation, National Infrastructure, and Road Safety

Gilad Erdan (Likud) Minister of Communications and Minister of Home Front Defence

Yaakov Perry (Yesh Atid) Minister of Science and Technology

Limor Livnat (Likud) Minister of Culture and Sport

 

Yair Shamir (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development

Meir Cohen (Yesh Atid) Minister of Welfare and Social Services

Uri Orbach (Bayit Yehudi) Minister for Senior Citizens

Amir Peretz (Livni Party) Minister of Environmental Protection

Sofa Landver (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Immigrant Absorption

 

** Silvan Shalom (Likud) Minister of Energy and Water, Minister of the Development of the Negev and Galil, (possibly Minister of Regional Cooperation)

** Yuval Steinitz (Likud) Minister of Intelligence and Atomic Energy and Minister of Strategic Affairs

 

** = Pending

 

Reported Defense Ministers:

Deputy Defense Danon (Likud)

Deputy Foreign Elkin (Likud)

Deputy Education Vortzman (Bayit Yehudi)

Deputy Religious Ben Dahan (Bayit Yehudi)

Deputy Welfare Minister Levy (Yesh Atid)

Deputy Minister Akunis (Likud)

+ 2 more

 

* I will update this page as thing change.

 

I’m looking forward to Monday, that is most likely the day we will swear in a new government. Coalition deals should be on Knesset table Sunday. There is a 24-hour period in between.

My Guess Poll

33 Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
16 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
15 Labor
10 Shas
09 Yesh Atid
07 Movement
06 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 Hadash
05 Ra’am-Ta’al
04 Kadima
04 Meretz
03 Balad
03 Strong Israel

Am Shalem and others don’t pass threshold

68 Right-Religious
52 Center-Left-Arab

* I predict a 22 seat shift from avg of polls but I don’t predict any shift that is larger than 3 seats.

* I don’t have time to explain my picks but I should be allowed to explain how I got to my picks after the deadline. As I had mentioned before, Israeli law forbids predicting results or publishing polls after today.
___________________________________________________________

Final Seats accourding to avg of polls, voting swaps and lost votes:

35 Likud Beitenu
18 Labor
15 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
12 Yesh Atid
11 Shas
07 Movement
06 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 Meretz
04 Hadash
03 Ra’am-Ta’al
03 Balad

67 Right-Religious
53 Center-Left-Arab

Kadima, Strong Israel, Am Shalem and others don’t pass 2.4% threshold.

Poll of Polls: http://knessetjeremy.com/2013/01/18/knesset-jeremy-poll-of-polls-likud-beitenu-33-7-labor-16-5-bayit-yehudi-14-0-yesh-atid-10-9-shas-10-6-movement-7-2/#comment-1648

Knesset Jeremy – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #15 (week of Jan 12-18 2013) of 16 polls (3 Panels, 2 Maagar Mochot, 2 Smith, 2 Midgam, 2 Dahaf, 2 Dialog, Teleseker, New Wave, Geocartography)

Current Knesset seats in [brackets], Week 14 average in (brackets):

33.7 (34.0) [42] Likud Beitenu
16.5 (17.3) [08] Labor
14.0 (14.2) [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
10.9 (10.3) [---] Yesh Atid
10.6 (10.3) [10] Shas
7.2 (7.8) [07] Movement
5.8 (6.0) [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
5.7 (4.8) [03] Meretz
3.9 (3.7) [04] Hadash
3.5 (3.6) [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
3.4 (3.3) [03] Balad
2.3 (1.4) [21] Kadima
1.9 (1.2) [02] Strong Israel
0.6 (1.0) [01] Am Shalem
— (0.0) [05] Independence (No longer running)

66.3 (67.07) [65] Right-Religious
53.6 (52.92) [55] Center-Left-Arab

Changes from week 14 to week 15:
Yesh Atid passes Shas for 4th place.

Largest Gains: Kadima and Meretz gained 0.9 of a seat each, Meretz and Strong Israel gained 0.7.

Biggest Losses: Labor lost 0.8 of a seat and Movement lost 0.6 of a seat.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Final Seats accourding to avg of polls, voting swaps and lost votes:

35 Likud Beitenu
18 Labor
15 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
12 Yesh Atid
11 Shas
7 Movement
6 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
6 Meretz
4 Hadash
3 Ra’am-Ta’al
3 Balad

67 Right-Religious
53 Center-Left-Arab

Kadima, Strong Israel, Am Shalem and others don’t pass 2.0% threshold of 2.4 seats.

* Next post will include my “Guess Poll”.

Panels conducted a poll that was published by the Yisrael Post/Sof Hashauva on Jan 18 2013. Supposedly, this was the last poll conuducted by any company before the deadline.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
16 [08] Labor
14 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
11 [---] Yesh Atid
10 [10] Shas
07 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
03 [02] Strong Israel
02 [21] Kadima
01 [01] Am Shalem (not passing)
00 [05] Independence (not running)

67 [65] Right-Religious
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab

* 8 seats don’t pass Knesset thanks to Am Shalem, Green Leaf, Koach Lahaspia, Eretz Hadasha, Greens who all have around a seat each. There are other small parties that eat up votes.

* 10% are still undecided

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