Tag Archive: KnessetJeremy


Dialog (Panel Midgam Project) conducted a poll of 869 people with a 3.3% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 10 on Jan 28 2015. The poll was conducted the day before.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
23 [18] Likud
16 [10] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] United Arab List
10 [20] Yesh Atid
09 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)
06 [10] Shas
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [06] Meretz
04 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [03] Ha’am Itanu
00 [02] Kadima – No longer running in Election

68 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
52 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Additional Questions:

Who is most suited to be PM?

44% Netanyahu, 32% Herzog, 25% Don’t know

Likud, Bayit Yehudi, Koolanu, Shas, UTJ, Yisrael Beitenu and Yishai voters chose Netanyahu over Herzog.

Zionist Union, United Arab List, Yesh Atid and Meretz voters chose Herzog.

Interesting stat: Shas voters chose Netanyahu 44% over Herzog 4%.

Does Eli Ochana addition to Bayit Yehudi list help the party?

64% No, 26% Don’t Know, 11% Yes.

Among Bayit Yehudi voters: 

48% No, 28% Don’t Know, 24% Yes.

 

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll that was broadcast by Kol HaRamah Radio on Jan 27 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [20] Labor-Livni

22 [18] Likud

16 [11] Bayit Yehudi

12 [11] United Arab List

11 [20] Yesh Atid

09 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)

06 [10] Shas

06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [06] Meretz

04 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

04 [02] Ha’am Itanu

00 [02] Kadima – No longer running in Election

 

67 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

53 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Panels conducted a poll of 536 people with a 4.5% margin of error that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on Jan 27 2015. The poll was conducted the day before.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [20] Labor-Livni

23 [18] Likud

15 [11] Bayit Yehudi

12 [11] United Arab List

11 [20] Yesh Atid

08 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)

07 [10] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

06 [06] Meretz

00 [02] Ha’am Itanu – under 3.25% threshold

00 [02] Kadima – No longer running in Election

 

66 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

54 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Midgam conducted a poll of 575 people with a margin of error of 4.5% that was broadcast by Channel 2 on Jan 27 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [20] Labor-Livni
23 [18] Likud
15 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] United Arab List
09 [20] Yesh Atid
08 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)
07 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Meretz
00 [02] Ha’am Itanu – under 3.25% threshold
00 [02] Kadima

67 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
53 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #8 (week of Jan 18-Jan 24 2015) of 5 polls from 3 polling companies (2 Teleseker, 2 Panels, 1 Smith, 0 Dialog, Midgam, Maagar Mochot, Geocartography, Sarid, TRI, New Wave)

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 24.4 (24.8) [20] Labor+Livni

2nd 24.0 (23.2) [18] Likud

3rd 15.6 (16.2) [11] Bayit Yehudi

4th 09.6 (09.6) [20] Yesh Atid

5th 07.6 (08.8) [–] Koolanu

6th 07.4 (07.3) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

6th 07.4 (06.6) [10] Shas

8th 05.8 (06.0) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

9th 05.4 (05.6) [06] Meretz

10th 03.4 (03.1) [02] Ha’am Itanu (Yishai+Chetboun)

11th 11.2 (11.0) [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad (not all polls have them united)

12th 00.0 (00.0) [02] Kadima

 

69.4 (68.7) [61] Right-Religious (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

50.4 (51.2) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

 

Changes from week 7 to week 8:           

UTJ and Shas are now tied for 6th.

Largest Gains: Likud and Shas both gained 0.8 seats each, Yishai gained 0.3.

Biggest Losses: Koolanu dropped 1.2 seats, Bayit Yehudi lost 0.6., Labor-Livni lost 0.4.

 

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 8:

1 –Coalition by the numbers: Labor-Livni 24.4, Likud 24.0. Bayit Yehudi 15.6, Meretz 5.4.

Likud cut the average difference to less than half of a seat between them and the Labor-Livni alliance. Both satellite parties took a hit this week. Meretz had hoped their Central Committee election for their MK list would give them a bump similar to the three parties that had open primaries. A possible reason that didn’t happen was Meretz electing five incumbents to the first five spots and a former MK to the 6th slot.

2 – Coalition Building – Herzog’s Problem: The Labor-Livni-Meretz bloc is at 29.8 and Likud-Bayit Yehudi is at 39.6 (without Yishai’s 3.4). Koolanu, Yisrael Beitenu, Shas and UTJ could go with either side; they are unlike Meretz, Bayit Yehudi and Yishai. There are many pundits who rush to place the four parties in a possible Herzog coalition but the four parties have not ruled out a coalition with Netanyahu and will prefer whoever gives them the best deal. Yesh Atid is a different story because Lapid prefers Herzog to Netanyahu, but there are various (longshot) scenarios where Lapid would consider a Netanyahu government over the opposition.  The United Arab List might under the right circumstances nominate Herzog as a candidate to form a government to President Rivlin, but they will not vote for a Zionist government in a Knesset vote that requires 61 MKs to form a coalition. The Arabs could act as a safety net in the future by blocking no-confidence motions from the opposition if a coalition party left a future Herzog government.

Herzog’s main problem is not that his Labor-Livni-Meretz bloc is 10 seats behind the Netanyahu-Bennett bloc; rather it is that he has overcommitted himself. The beginning of Herzog’s future government will look like this: Prime Minister Herzog, Foreign Minister Livni, Defense Minister Yadliin, Finance Minister Trachtenberg. Gal-On & Margalit were both promised top portfolios, most likely the Education or Interior for Gal-On & the Economy Ministry for Margalit. Herzog will be expected to give Yachmovich a respectable minister position as well. Herzog does not have much to offer Lapid, Liberman, Kahlon and Deri, considering he is already committed to six top portfolios and he has to deal with a mandatory 18 minister limit that will be enforced this time.

Netanyahu has fewer commitments, has made few promises, and has a larger bloc of loyal votes. Netanyahu is in a great position to offer Kahlon the Finance Ministry, he can easily offer Liberman a top ministry, UTJ will be offered the Chairmanship of the powerful Appropriations Committee again and Shas can return to the Interior Ministry.

However, if the parties that have not ruled out a Netanyahu coalition dip under 61 seats, Netanyahu’s re-election will be impossible and Herzog’s election becomes probable.

3 – The Center: Yesh Atid 9.6, Koolanu 7.6, Yisrael Beitenu 5.8

The center keeps shrinking. Yesh Atid remained steady this week. Tomorrow we should learn of Lapid’s appointments for Yesh Atid’s next Knesset list and the fate of the 18 (of 20) MKs seeking re-election. Koolanu keeps dropping and people are trying to figure out when their campaign will get off the ground. Another week has gone by, so Yisrael Beitenu has lost more support. Liberman assures us that his party will not fall under the new threshold he created. Five Yisrael Beitenu MKs ‘left’ political life willingly, another three MKs were placed in unrealistic spots during the “Liberman massacre” this week, which also placed two MKs in questionable spots. It is possible that Liberman will only be taking 2 of his MKs with him to the next Knesset, assuming he passes the threshold.

4 – Haredim: UTJ 7.4, Shas 7.4, Ha’am Itanu 3.4

The Haredim are most likely going to be in the next government. Netanyahu and Herzog would both prefer to avoid them if possible, but with the current numbers neither will be able to form a government without them. Shas was facing the threshold a few weeks ago and now they are back polling even with UTJ. Yishai’s polling numbers are getting stronger and this week we will learn if Ben-Ari will join him. Yishai is also waiting to see which Shas MKs are placed lower by Deri so that he can move them over to his list.

5 –United Arab List and Kadima

Starting next week all polls will have the United Arab List as one party and we will be able to treat the list as such in all polling. This is most likely the last week we will ever have to poll Kadima. The last party lists will be submitted on Thursday. Few people expect Mofaz to run on his own and he might not run with anyone at all. Kadima, the largest party of the 17th and 18th Knesset’s, the party of Prime Minister’s Sharon and Olmert, led afterwards by Livni and Mofaz will most likely die before the 19th Knesset is over.

6 – Week 9 Preview

The final lists will be presented by all parties before the Thursday night deadline. There will be a lot of ups and downs this week. The polls will begin to make more sense starting next Sunday.

Smith conducted a poll that was broadcast by Reshet Bet Radio on Jan 23 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [20] Labor-Livni
25 [18] Likud
16 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] United Arab List
09 [20] Yesh Atid
09 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
00 [02] Ha’am Itanu – under 3.25% threshold
00 [02] Kadima

69 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
51 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Teleseker (TNS) conducted a poll that was broadcast by Channel 1 on Jan 22 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [18] Likud
24 [20] Labor-Livni
15 [11] Bayit Yehudi
11 [11] *United Arab List
09 [10] Shas
08 [20] Yesh Atid
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)
05 [06] Meretz
00 [02] Ha’am Itanu – under 3.25% threshold
00 [02] Kadima

72 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
48 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Panels conducted a poll that was published by Maariv on Jan 22 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [21] Labor-Livni
22 [18] Likud
15 [11] Bayit Yehudi
11 [19] Yesh Atid
11 [11] *United Arab List (6 Raam-Taal, 5 Hadash, 0 Balad)
08 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [10] Shas
06 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Ha’am Itanu
00 [02] Kadima

68 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
52 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Teleseker (TNS) conducted a poll of 500 people that was published by Walla on Jan 21 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [21] Labor-Livni

24 [18] Likud

16 [11] Bayit Yehudi

11 [11] Raam-Taal 5, Harash 3, Balad 3))  United Arab List

09 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [10] Shas

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

08 [00] Koolanu

06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

05 [06] Meretz

00 [02] Ha’am Itanu

00 [02] Kadima

70 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

 

Teleseker (TNS) conducted a scenario poll with a joint Likud-Bayit Yehudi listhat was published by Walla on Jan 21 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

37 [29] Likud + Bayit Yehudi

25 [21] Labor-Livni

09 [19] Yesh Atid

11 [11] *United Arab List

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [06] Meretz

08 [00] Koolanu

08 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

09 [10] Shas

00 [02] Kadima

70 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Panels conducted a poll that was published by Knesset Channel on Jan 20 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [21] Labor-Livni
23 [18] Likud
16 [11] Bayit Yehudi
11 [19] Yesh Atid
11 [11] *United Arab List
08 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Meretz
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [10] Shas
04 [02] Ha’am Itanu
00 [00] Strong Israel – 2 seats but under 3.25% threshold
00 [00] Greeen Leaf – 1 seats but under 3.25% threshold
00 [02] Kadima

68 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
52 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Panels conducted a scenario poll with a joint Likud-Bayit Yehudi list that was published by Knesset Channel on Jan 20 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

40 [29] Likud + Bayit Yehudi
24 [21] Labor-Livni
11 [19] Yesh Atid
11 [11] *United Arab List
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Meretz06 [02] Ha’am Itanu
06 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [10] Shas
00 [00] Strong Israel
00 [00] Greeen Leaf
00 [02] Kadima

68 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
52 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

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