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Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #8 (week of Jan 18-Jan 24 2015) of 5 polls from 3 polling companies (2 Teleseker, 2 Panels, 1 Smith, 0 Dialog, Midgam, Maagar Mochot, Geocartography, Sarid, TRI, New Wave)

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 24.4 (24.8) [20] Labor+Livni

2nd 24.0 (23.2) [18] Likud

3rd 15.6 (16.2) [11] Bayit Yehudi

4th 09.6 (09.6) [20] Yesh Atid

5th 07.6 (08.8) [–] Koolanu

6th 07.4 (07.3) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

6th 07.4 (06.6) [10] Shas

8th 05.8 (06.0) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

9th 05.4 (05.6) [06] Meretz

10th 03.4 (03.1) [02] Ha’am Itanu (Yishai+Chetboun)

11th 11.2 (11.0) [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad (not all polls have them united)

12th 00.0 (00.0) [02] Kadima

 

69.4 (68.7) [61] Right-Religious (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

50.4 (51.2) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

 

Changes from week 7 to week 8:           

UTJ and Shas are now tied for 6th.

Largest Gains: Likud and Shas both gained 0.8 seats each, Yishai gained 0.3.

Biggest Losses: Koolanu dropped 1.2 seats, Bayit Yehudi lost 0.6., Labor-Livni lost 0.4.

 

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 8:

1 –Coalition by the numbers: Labor-Livni 24.4, Likud 24.0. Bayit Yehudi 15.6, Meretz 5.4.

Likud cut the average difference to less than half of a seat between them and the Labor-Livni alliance. Both satellite parties took a hit this week. Meretz had hoped their Central Committee election for their MK list would give them a bump similar to the three parties that had open primaries. A possible reason that didn’t happen was Meretz electing five incumbents to the first five spots and a former MK to the 6th slot.

2 – Coalition Building – Herzog’s Problem: The Labor-Livni-Meretz bloc is at 29.8 and Likud-Bayit Yehudi is at 39.6 (without Yishai’s 3.4). Koolanu, Yisrael Beitenu, Shas and UTJ could go with either side; they are unlike Meretz, Bayit Yehudi and Yishai. There are many pundits who rush to place the four parties in a possible Herzog coalition but the four parties have not ruled out a coalition with Netanyahu and will prefer whoever gives them the best deal. Yesh Atid is a different story because Lapid prefers Herzog to Netanyahu, but there are various (longshot) scenarios where Lapid would consider a Netanyahu government over the opposition.  The United Arab List might under the right circumstances nominate Herzog as a candidate to form a government to President Rivlin, but they will not vote for a Zionist government in a Knesset vote that requires 61 MKs to form a coalition. The Arabs could act as a safety net in the future by blocking no-confidence motions from the opposition if a coalition party left a future Herzog government.

Herzog’s main problem is not that his Labor-Livni-Meretz bloc is 10 seats behind the Netanyahu-Bennett bloc; rather it is that he has overcommitted himself. The beginning of Herzog’s future government will look like this: Prime Minister Herzog, Foreign Minister Livni, Defense Minister Yadliin, Finance Minister Trachtenberg. Gal-On & Margalit were both promised top portfolios, most likely the Education or Interior for Gal-On & the Economy Ministry for Margalit. Herzog will be expected to give Yachmovich a respectable minister position as well. Herzog does not have much to offer Lapid, Liberman, Kahlon and Deri, considering he is already committed to six top portfolios and he has to deal with a mandatory 18 minister limit that will be enforced this time.

Netanyahu has fewer commitments, has made few promises, and has a larger bloc of loyal votes. Netanyahu is in a great position to offer Kahlon the Finance Ministry, he can easily offer Liberman a top ministry, UTJ will be offered the Chairmanship of the powerful Appropriations Committee again and Shas can return to the Interior Ministry.

However, if the parties that have not ruled out a Netanyahu coalition dip under 61 seats, Netanyahu’s re-election will be impossible and Herzog’s election becomes probable.

3 – The Center: Yesh Atid 9.6, Koolanu 7.6, Yisrael Beitenu 5.8

The center keeps shrinking. Yesh Atid remained steady this week. Tomorrow we should learn of Lapid’s appointments for Yesh Atid’s next Knesset list and the fate of the 18 (of 20) MKs seeking re-election. Koolanu keeps dropping and people are trying to figure out when their campaign will get off the ground. Another week has gone by, so Yisrael Beitenu has lost more support. Liberman assures us that his party will not fall under the new threshold he created. Five Yisrael Beitenu MKs ‘left’ political life willingly, another three MKs were placed in unrealistic spots during the “Liberman massacre” this week, which also placed two MKs in questionable spots. It is possible that Liberman will only be taking 2 of his MKs with him to the next Knesset, assuming he passes the threshold.

4 – Haredim: UTJ 7.4, Shas 7.4, Ha’am Itanu 3.4

The Haredim are most likely going to be in the next government. Netanyahu and Herzog would both prefer to avoid them if possible, but with the current numbers neither will be able to form a government without them. Shas was facing the threshold a few weeks ago and now they are back polling even with UTJ. Yishai’s polling numbers are getting stronger and this week we will learn if Ben-Ari will join him. Yishai is also waiting to see which Shas MKs are placed lower by Deri so that he can move them over to his list.

5 –United Arab List and Kadima

Starting next week all polls will have the United Arab List as one party and we will be able to treat the list as such in all polling. This is most likely the last week we will ever have to poll Kadima. The last party lists will be submitted on Thursday. Few people expect Mofaz to run on his own and he might not run with anyone at all. Kadima, the largest party of the 17th and 18th Knesset’s, the party of Prime Minister’s Sharon and Olmert, led afterwards by Livni and Mofaz will most likely die before the 19th Knesset is over.

6 – Week 9 Preview

The final lists will be presented by all parties before the Thursday night deadline. There will be a lot of ups and downs this week. The polls will begin to make more sense starting next Sunday.

Smith conducted a poll that was broadcast by Reshet Bet Radio on Jan 23 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [20] Labor-Livni
25 [18] Likud
16 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] United Arab List
09 [20] Yesh Atid
09 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
00 [02] Ha’am Itanu – under 3.25% threshold
00 [02] Kadima

69 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
51 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Teleseker (TNS) conducted a poll that was broadcast by Channel 1 on Jan 22 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [18] Likud
24 [20] Labor-Livni
15 [11] Bayit Yehudi
11 [11] *United Arab List
09 [10] Shas
08 [20] Yesh Atid
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)
05 [06] Meretz
00 [02] Ha’am Itanu – under 3.25% threshold
00 [02] Kadima

72 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
48 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Panels conducted a poll that was published by Maariv on Jan 22 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [21] Labor-Livni
22 [18] Likud
15 [11] Bayit Yehudi
11 [19] Yesh Atid
11 [11] *United Arab List (6 Raam-Taal, 5 Hadash, 0 Balad)
08 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [10] Shas
06 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Ha’am Itanu
00 [02] Kadima

68 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
52 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Teleseker (TNS) conducted a poll of 500 people that was published by Walla on Jan 21 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [21] Labor-Livni

24 [18] Likud

16 [11] Bayit Yehudi

11 [11] Raam-Taal 5, Harash 3, Balad 3))  United Arab List

09 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [10] Shas

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

08 [00] Koolanu

06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

05 [06] Meretz

00 [02] Ha’am Itanu

00 [02] Kadima

70 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

 

Teleseker (TNS) conducted a scenario poll with a joint Likud-Bayit Yehudi listhat was published by Walla on Jan 21 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

37 [29] Likud + Bayit Yehudi

25 [21] Labor-Livni

09 [19] Yesh Atid

11 [11] *United Arab List

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [06] Meretz

08 [00] Koolanu

08 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

09 [10] Shas

00 [02] Kadima

70 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Panels conducted a poll that was published by Knesset Channel on Jan 20 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [21] Labor-Livni
23 [18] Likud
16 [11] Bayit Yehudi
11 [19] Yesh Atid
11 [11] *United Arab List
08 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Meretz
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [10] Shas
04 [02] Ha’am Itanu
00 [00] Strong Israel – 2 seats but under 3.25% threshold
00 [00] Greeen Leaf – 1 seats but under 3.25% threshold
00 [02] Kadima

68 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
52 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Panels conducted a scenario poll with a joint Likud-Bayit Yehudi list that was published by Knesset Channel on Jan 20 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

40 [29] Likud + Bayit Yehudi
24 [21] Labor-Livni
11 [19] Yesh Atid
11 [11] *United Arab List
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Meretz06 [02] Ha’am Itanu
06 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [10] Shas
00 [00] Strong Israel
00 [00] Greeen Leaf
00 [02] Kadima

68 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
52 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #7 (week of Jan 11-Jan 18 2015) of 9 polls from 5 polling companies (3 Teleseker, 2 Panels, 2 Smith, 1 Dialog, 1 Midgam, 0 Maagar Mochot, Geocartography, Sarid, TRI, New Wave)

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 24.8 (23.6) [21] Labor+Livni

2nd 23.2 (24.0) [18] Likud

3rd 16.2 (15.3) [11] Bayit Yehudi

4th 09.6 (10.3) [19] Yesh Atid

5th 08.8 (08.6) [–] Koolanu

6th 07.3 (07.5) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

7th 06.6 (06.0) [10] Shas

8th 06.0 (06.6) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

9th 05.6 (06.1) [06] Meretz

10th 03.1 (03.1) [02] Ha’am Itanu (Yishai+Chetboun)

11th 11.0 (11.0) [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad (not all polls have them united)

12th 00.0 (00.0) [02] Kadima

 

68.7 (68.8) [61] Right-Religious (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

51.2 (51.1) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

 

Changes from week 6 to week 7:            

Labor-Livni replaces Likud as the largest party.

Shas jumps from 9th to 7th, while Yisrael Beitenu drops to 8th and Meretz to 9th.

Largest Gains: Labor-Livni gained 1.2 seats, Bayit Yehudi gained .9 and Shas gained .6.

Biggest Losses: Likud dropped 0.8, Yesh Atid lost 0.7., Yisrael Beitenu lost 0.6.

 

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 7:

1 – The post-primary bump: Labor-Livni 24.8, Likud 23.2, Bayit Yehudi 16.2.

Same headline as last week. The two parties that gained the most ground this week both had mid-week primaries. For the last two weeks the post-primary bump has helped Likud, this week the bump went to the other two democratic parties that have open primaries. The public loves primaries, no matter the result. Just like Likud, Labor and Bayit Yehudi chose more or less the same people they voted for two years ago. In Labor, Likud and Bayit Yehudi there are reserved slots that will balance their lists with new faces.

2 – The Center: Yesh Atid 9.6, Koolanu 8.8, Yisrael Beitenu 6.0

The center is splintered and shrinking. There will be no joint list between the three center parties. Yesh Atid has dropped out of double digits again and we still don’t know the order of their list. Koolanu announced the order of their top 10 to little fanfare. Yisrael Beitenu keeps losing ground and is now about two seats from falling under the threshold.

Yisrael Beitenu 2013: #2 Minister Shamir, #3 Minister Landau, #5 Minister Aharonovich, #7 Deputy Minister Kirshenbaum, #8 Chairman Rotem. – All gone for 2015.

Yisrael Beitenu 2015: Foreign Minister Liberman, MK Levi-Abukasis, Minister Landver and a journalist from Channel 20.

3 – Haredim: UTJ 7.3, Shas 6.6, Ha’am Itanu 3.1

It is very hard for people to explain how Aryeh Deri is back and Shas continues to gain as a result. The answer is that these people really  feel like they don’t have anywhere else to turn to (yet). Yishai failed to pass the threshold in 8 of the 9 polls taken this week, which means he will start talking to former MK Ben Ari about a joint list.

4 – Meretz 5.6 and the United Arab List

Remember when Meretz was in double digits? Now they are within the margin of error in some polls of falling under the threshold. Their Central Committee will choose their next list this week. Meretz is hoping their Central Committee vote will give them the same type of bump Labor enjoyed after their primary this week.

The Hadash & Balad Central Committees chose their lists as we get closer to the merger deadline.

5 – The Bloc War and the President Mandate

People keep writing to me that Herzog has the best chance to form a coalition. They give me a long list of the people in the know that agree with them. The problem is that the numbers don’t add up. Anything can happen in the world of politics. But, you can’t honestly tell me that it is more likely that the Haredim are going to sit in a coalition with Yesh Atid than Yesh Atid sitting in a coalition with Benjamin Netanyahu. You need 61 votes to approve a new coalition and let’s face it – Koolanu & Yisrael Beitenu would join either coalition.

A Labor-Livni-Yesh Atid-Koolanu-Yisrael Beitenu-Meretz coalition is 54.8.
A Likud-Bayit Yehudi-Koolanu-UTJ-Shas-Yisrael Beitenu coalition (without Yishai passing, or adding Yesh Atid) is 68.7.

When a Herzog coalition becomes viable I will list it.

In the last two terms President Shimon Peres did not want to give the mandate to form the government to Benjamin Netanyahu. The problem for him was that he had to. If the combined seat total of the party leaders that nominate an individual for Prime Minister comes out to 61 (or more), the President has to give the mandate to that person. It is possible that a party like Koolanu will not nominate someone for Prime Minister to give them more negotiation power, but maybe a creditable journalist should get a clear answer on that question before assuming that is how things will be.

6 – Week 8 Preview

Less than two weeks to finalize Knesset lists. Yesh Atid needs to pick a list. Likud, Labor & Bayit Yehudi all have reserved slots to fill. Meretz’s Central Committee chooses their list. United Arab List or bust? Is this the last full week we will have to poll Kadima? There are many story-lines to follow this week.

Smith conducted a poll that was broadcast by Reshet Bet Radio on Jan 16 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [21] Labor-Livni

24 [18] Likud

16 [11] Bayit Yehudi

11 [11] *United Arab List (6 Hadash-Taal, 5 Raam-Balad)

08 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [10] Shas

08 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

06 [06] Meretz

00 [02] Ha’am Itanu

00 [02] Kadima

 

69 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

51 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Teleseker conducted a poll that was published in Walla on Jan 16 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [21] Labor-Livni

24 [18] Likud

18 [11] Bayit Yehudi

11 [11] *United Arab List (5 Raam-Taal, 4 Hadash, 2 Balad)

08 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

08 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)

07 [10] Shas

05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

05 [06] Meretz

00 [02] Ha’am Itanu

00 [02] Kadima

 

70 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Smith conducted a poll that was published in Globes on Jan 16 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [21] Labor-Livni

24 [18] Likud

15 [11] Bayit Yehudi

11 [11] *United Arab List (6 Hadash, 5 Raam-Taal-Balad)

09 [19] Yesh Atid

09 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)

08 [10] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

06 [06] Meretz

00 [02] Ha’am Itanu

00 [02] Kadima

 

69 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

51 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

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