Tag Archive: Bayit Yehudi


Following the opposition boycott of the planned 21-hour session, as opposed to the planned 23-hour session for the Electoral Reform Bill, Speaker Edelstein re-opened up the session as planned at 10 AM.

Chairwoman Shaked (Bayit Yehudi) gave a speech highlighting certain aspects of the bill. She stated that around 22,000 Haredim will get an exemption for service in order for them to enter the workforce. She noted that the Haredim are 400 people away from meeting their target goals for this year in the army and 600 people away for national service target goals. She pointed out there are already thousands of Haredim serving in both and that the Haredim are expected to meet the target goals for this year by July. She said that those who don’t want to learn should go to army or national service and allow their friends who want to learn to be able to do so. She pointed out there are currently 800 haredim doing combat service. Every haredi combat soldier is counted as 1.5 toward enlistment goal numbers. She talked about the accomplishments of Haredim in the military, national service and the workforce while still devoting time to learning Torah. She praised the Ministry Economy plan for training and employing Haredim.

Minister Piron (Yesh Atid) gave a long speech that included quotes from Opposition Leader Herzog’s grandfather who was an Israeli Chief Rabbi.

Speaker Edelstein announced that all coalition MKs removed their objections. All of the opposition objections were removed because the objecting MKs were not in the building.

You can read more about the content bill here: http://knessetjeremy.com/2014/03/11/the-shaked-hardei-draftserviceemployment-bill/

National Service Bill passed its second reading 66-1 (with an MK present that was present but didn’t vote), 67-1, 67-0 (1 didn’t vote), 67-1. A government objection was accepted 68-0.
It passed in its third reading 67-1.

Amendment to the Security Service Bill passed its second reading 67-1 and third reading 67-1.

Minister Peri (Yesh Atid) thanked the Knesset for approving the bill.

Speaker Edelstein closed the session and said they would re-convene in 20 minutes for the regular Wed Knesset session.

The only coalition MK who voted against the bill is Bayit Yehudi MK Yoni Chetboun.
The 52 opposition MKs went through with their boycott. The official Knesset protocol will show that not one opposition MK gave a speech against the bill and not one opposition MK voted against the bill.

Shaked Law (for good and for bad) is complete.

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on Feb 3 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [31] Likud Beitenu

19 [15] Labor

16 [12] Bayit Yehudi

13 [19] Yesh Atid

11 [06] Meretz

09 [11] Shas

06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [03] Balad

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

00 [02] Kadima

61 [61] Right-Religious

59 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Weekend affect: A few changes from Panels poll that was conducted four days earlier.  In this poll Kadima falls under the threshold, UTJ drops a seat and Bayit Yehudi also loses a seat from 17 to 16. Shas gains two seats, Yesh Atid one seat and Livni/Movement one seat as well. 61-59 result between the blocks remains the same.

Additional Questions:

Who do you believe Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu or Minister Naftali Bennett?

37% Bennett (84% of Bayit Yehudi voters), 24% Netanyahu (2% of Bayit Yehudi voters), 39% (14% of Bayit Yehudi voters) Don’t know

Who acted correctly in last week’s brawl?

34% Netanyahu (7% of Bayit Yehudi voters), 33% Bennett (77% of Bayit Yehudi voters), 33% (16% of Bayit Yehudi voters) Don’t know

What grade do you give Minister Naftali Bennett?

37% Bad (3% of Bayit Yehudi voters), 30% Good (75% of Bayit Yehudi voters), 25% Average (20% of Bayit Yehudi voters)

Who is the right person to lead the nationalist camp?

25% Netanyahu, 14% Yaalon, 11% Bennett, 7% Liberman, 30% None of them, 13% Don’t know

Does Bennett’s behavior increase or decrease the chance you will vote for him in the next elections?

53% Doesn’t change, 23% Lower chances, 14% Higher chances

Additional Questions for Bayit Yehudi voters:

Do you regret voting Bayit Yehudi?

80% No, 7% Yes

What made you vote Bayit Yehudi?

55% Views on Defense/Security/Diplomacy, 35% Views on Religion, 10% I don’t know

Which Bayit Yehudi MK best represents you?

24% Naftali Bennett, 17% Uri Orbach, 15% Ayelet Shaked, 5% Orit Struck, 4% Uri Ariel, 2% Nissan Slomiansky. 33% Don’t know or one of the other 6 Bayit Yehudi MKs (Ben-Dahan, Kalfa, Wortzman, Yogev, Chetboun, Muaalam).

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcasted by Knesset Channel 99 on Nov 4 2013.

Additionally, they asked Bayit Yehudi voters specific questions.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [31] Likud Beitenu
17 [15] Labor
16 [12] Bayit Yehudi
13 [19] Yesh Atid
11 [06] Meretz
09 [11] Shas
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
04 [03] Balad
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
02 [02] Kadima

61 [61] Right-Religious
59 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Bayit Yehudi Voters:

How did Bennett handle release of 26 terrorists?

88% satisfied
12% terrible

Which version do you believe Bennett or Netanyahu?

62% Bennett
15% Netanyahu

Should Bennett stay in government?

66% Yes

Pact with Yesh Atid or Haredi parties?

33% Yesh Atid
25% Haredi

Why vote Bayit Yehudi?

52% platform
46% traditional Jewish values

Did Bennett’s success in high tech make him more suitable to lead party?

55% Yes

Favorable/Relatable (all parties polled):

28% Bennett
17% Shaked
17% Orbach
13% Ariel
10% Struck
5% Slomiansky

My Guess Poll

33 Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
16 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
15 Labor
10 Shas
09 Yesh Atid
07 Movement
06 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 Hadash
05 Ra’am-Ta’al
04 Kadima
04 Meretz
03 Balad
03 Strong Israel

Am Shalem and others don’t pass threshold

68 Right-Religious
52 Center-Left-Arab

* I predict a 22 seat shift from avg of polls but I don’t predict any shift that is larger than 3 seats.

* I don’t have time to explain my picks but I should be allowed to explain how I got to my picks after the deadline. As I had mentioned before, Israeli law forbids predicting results or publishing polls after today.
___________________________________________________________

Final Seats accourding to avg of polls, voting swaps and lost votes:

35 Likud Beitenu
18 Labor
15 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
12 Yesh Atid
11 Shas
07 Movement
06 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 Meretz
04 Hadash
03 Ra’am-Ta’al
03 Balad

67 Right-Religious
53 Center-Left-Arab

Kadima, Strong Israel, Am Shalem and others don’t pass 2.4% threshold.

Poll of Polls: http://knessetjeremy.com/2013/01/18/knesset-jeremy-poll-of-polls-likud-beitenu-33-7-labor-16-5-bayit-yehudi-14-0-yesh-atid-10-9-shas-10-6-movement-7-2/#comment-1648

Knesset Jeremy – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #15 (week of Jan 12-18 2013) of 16 polls (3 Panels, 2 Maagar Mochot, 2 Smith, 2 Midgam, 2 Dahaf, 2 Dialog, Teleseker, New Wave, Geocartography)

Current Knesset seats in [brackets], Week 14 average in (brackets):

33.7 (34.0) [42] Likud Beitenu
16.5 (17.3) [08] Labor
14.0 (14.2) [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
10.9 (10.3) [---] Yesh Atid
10.6 (10.3) [10] Shas
7.2 (7.8) [07] Movement
5.8 (6.0) [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
5.7 (4.8) [03] Meretz
3.9 (3.7) [04] Hadash
3.5 (3.6) [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
3.4 (3.3) [03] Balad
2.3 (1.4) [21] Kadima
1.9 (1.2) [02] Strong Israel
0.6 (1.0) [01] Am Shalem
— (0.0) [05] Independence (No longer running)

66.3 (67.07) [65] Right-Religious
53.6 (52.92) [55] Center-Left-Arab

Changes from week 14 to week 15:
Yesh Atid passes Shas for 4th place.

Largest Gains: Kadima and Meretz gained 0.9 of a seat each, Meretz and Strong Israel gained 0.7.

Biggest Losses: Labor lost 0.8 of a seat and Movement lost 0.6 of a seat.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Final Seats accourding to avg of polls, voting swaps and lost votes:

35 Likud Beitenu
18 Labor
15 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
12 Yesh Atid
11 Shas
7 Movement
6 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
6 Meretz
4 Hadash
3 Ra’am-Ta’al
3 Balad

67 Right-Religious
53 Center-Left-Arab

Kadima, Strong Israel, Am Shalem and others don’t pass 2.0% threshold of 2.4 seats.

* Next post will include my “Guess Poll”.

Panels conducted a poll that was published by the Yisrael Post/Sof Hashauva on Jan 18 2013. Supposedly, this was the last poll conuducted by any company before the deadline.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
16 [08] Labor
14 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
11 [---] Yesh Atid
10 [10] Shas
07 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
03 [02] Strong Israel
02 [21] Kadima
01 [01] Am Shalem (not passing)
00 [05] Independence (not running)

67 [65] Right-Religious
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab

* 8 seats don’t pass Knesset thanks to Am Shalem, Green Leaf, Koach Lahaspia, Eretz Hadasha, Greens who all have around a seat each. There are other small parties that eat up votes.

* 10% are still undecided

Smith conducted a poll that was published by the Jpost.com (Jerusalem Post) on Jan 18 2013. The poll was conducted Wed and Thurs night.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17 [08] Labor
14 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
12 [---] Yesh Atid
11 [10] Shas
06 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [03] Balad
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
02 [21] Kadima
02 [01] Am Shalem
00 [02] Strong Israel (almost 2)
00 [05] Independence (not running)

66 [65] Right-Religious
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab

Dahaf conducted a poll of 1000 people with an error rate of 0.9 to 3.2 seats for Yediot Achronot that was published on Jan 18 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17 [08] Labor
13 [---] Yesh Atid
12 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
11 [10] Shas
08 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
02 [21] Kadima
02 [02] Strong Israel
00 [01] Am Shalem
00 [05] Independence (not running)

63 [65] Right-Religious
57 [55] Center-Left-Arab

Dialog conducted a poll for Haaertz that was published on Jan 17 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17 [08] Labor
14 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
12 [10] Shas
12 [---] Yesh Atid
08 [07] Movement
06 [03] Meretz
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [04] Hadash
04 [03] Balad
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
02 [21] Kadima
01 [02] Strong Israel (1.4%) not passing
01 [01] Am Shalem (1%) not passing
00 [05] Independence (not running)

63 [65] Right-Religious
57 [55] Center-Left-Arab

Green Leaf 1%, Koach Lahaspia 0.8%, Eretz Hadasha 0.5%, Hayisraelim 0.4%, Greens 0.1%.

Smith conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.5% error rate for Jerusalem Post/Globes that was published on Jan 17 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17 [08] Labor
13 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
11 [10] Shas
11 [---] Yesh Atid
07 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [03] Balad
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
02 [21] Kadima
02 [02] Strong Israel
00 [01] Am Shalem
00 [05] Independence (not running)

66 [65] Right-Religious
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab

 

Eretz Hadasha and Green Leaf 1 seat each

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