Latest Entries »

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

 

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #15 (week of March 8-13 2015) of 16 polls from 8 leading polling companies (4 Midgam, 3 Panels, 2 Teleseker, 2 Smith, 2 Dialog, 1 Maagar Mochot,  1 TRI, 1 Geocartography,  0 Sarid & New Wave.)

 

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 24.3750 (23.50) [20] Zionist Union (Labor+Livni)

2nd 21.6875 (22.83) [18] Likud

3rd 12.6250 (12.58) [11] The Joint (Arab) List

4th 12.3750 (12.30) [20] Yesh Atid

5th 11.8750 (11.91) [11] Bayit Yehudi

6th 08.8125 (08.25) [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)

7th 07.2500 (06.83) [10] Shas

8th 06.5625 (06.66) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

9th 05.3125 (05.58) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

10th 05.0625 (05.33) [06] Meretz

11th 04.2500 (04.16) [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

 

65.5625 (66.25) [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating a Netanyahu coalition)

54.4375 (53.75) [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating a Netanyahu coalition)

 

Changes: First time all 11 parties maintained their position from previous week.

 

Largest Gains: Zionist Union gained 0.87 of a seat; Kulanu gained 0.56 of a seat and Shas gained 0.42.

Biggest Losses: Likud lost 1.15 seats; Yisrael Beitenu and Meretz both dropped 0.27 of a seat.

**

The 3-phase process to the Prime Minister House: Phase 1 – Elections (seats). Phase 2 – President’s Residence (nomination). Phase 3 – Knesset vote (61 MKs needed).

**

1 – Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 15:

Tonight – Final Average and Prediction (below).
Sunday – Phase 1 Prediction Analysis.
Monday – Phase 2 Prediction Analysis.
Tuesday – Phase 3 Prediction Analysis (before polls open).
Tuesday – Election Day (7 AM-10 PM Israel time/No post activity)
Tuesday late night – Exit Polls, Initial Results through the night & Analysis

For initial analysis on the ‘Poll of Polls’ you can catch my 15th and last weekly Sunday installment with Voice Of Israel’s Gil Hoffman on Voice of Israel.com

2 – Final Prediction based on Knesset Jeremy Model

Zionist Union 25
Likud 22
The Joint (Arab) List 12
Yesh Atid 12
Bayit Yehudi 12
Kulanu 9
Shas 7
UTJ 7
Yisrael Beitenu 5
Meretz 5
Yachad 4

  • Methodology: Final model takes into account voter exchange agreements (Zionist Union-Meretz, Likud-Bayit Yehudi, Koolanu-Yisrael Beitneu, Shas-UTJ), disqualified votes (including 15 parties running in Election that are next expected to pass 3.25% threshold and invalid votes), fractions of seats, 120th seat (last seat) scenarios (including crazy mathematical possibilities) and latest momentum model.
  • Disclaimer: Final Model doesn’t take into account people who are still undecided (mostly because they don’t know yet who they are voting for). Therefore it is expected that there will be some movement in the last few days among the top parties. I tried to do my best to predict this with my momentum model, but the weekly swing has been very low in recent weeks.

Possible Netanyahu Phase 2: Likud (22), Bayit Yehudi (12), Kulanu (9), Shas (7), UTJ (7), Yisrael Beitenu (5), Yachad (4) =66

Possible Herzog Phase 2: Zionist Union (25), The Joint (Arab) List (12), Yesh Atid (12), Kulanu (9), Meretz (5) =63

  • Stay tuned for Phase 1 Analysis tomorrow.

Dialog conducted a poll that was taken out for Channel 10 and released on March 14 2015.

This was the last poll released in the 2015 Election cycle.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
20 [18] Likud
13 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [20] Yesh Atid
12 [11] Bayit Yehudi
10 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [06] Meretz
05 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

66 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
54 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)

Midgam conducted a poll that was taken out for Channel 2 and released on March 14 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
22 [18] Likud
13 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [20] Yesh Atid
11 [11] Bayit Yehudi
08 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
05 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

64 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
56 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)

-This polls is was 2nd poll by Midgam on final day of voting and identical to Yediot Acharonot poll with the exception of Yachad gaining a seat from Bayit Yehudi.

* I will release the final Poll of Polls Average tonight with the Knesset Jeremy Phase 1 Prediction.

Hello everybody,

In about 90 minutes the deadline for publishing polls that were conducted in this cycle will pass.

I will be offering my average, analysis and prediction poll tomorrow night.

I think it is important to take some time to look at the final model before writing and publishing the final analysis of the election.

Jeremy

Smith conducted a poll that was taken out for Reshet Bet Radio and released on March 13 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
21 [18] Likud
13 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [20] Yesh Atid
11 [11] Bayit Yehudi
09 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
09 [10] Shas
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

66 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
54 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)

Teleseker conducted a poll that was taken out for Walla and released on March 13 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
23 [18] Likud
12 [20] Yesh Atid
12 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [11] Bayit Yehudi
09 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

67 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
53 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)

Additional Question:

Which government do you prefer after the election?

36% Right-wing government, 27% Center-Left government, 19% National Unity government

Panels conducted a poll of 1,305 people with a 3% margin of error that was taken out for Maariv/Jerusalem Post and released on March 13 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
21 [18] Likud
13 [20] Yesh Atid
13 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [11] Bayit Yehudi
10 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [06] Meretz
05 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
04 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

64 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
56 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)

Midgam conducted a poll of 1032 people with a 2.5% margin of error that was taken out for Yediot Acharonot and released on March 13 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
22 [18] Likud
13 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [20] Yesh Atid
12 [11] Bayit Yehudi
08 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

64 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
56 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll that was taken out for Kol B’Ramah Radio and released on March 12 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
21 [18] Likud
13 [20] Yesh Atid
13 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
08 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
05 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

66 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
54 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)

Teleseker conducted a poll that was taken out for Channel 1 and released on March 12 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
22 [18] Likud
12 [20] Yesh Atid
12 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [11] Bayit Yehudi
09 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
08 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

67 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
53 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)

Smith conducted a poll that was taken out for Globes and released on March 12 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
20 [18] Likud
13 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [20] Yesh Atid
12 [11] Bayit Yehudi
09 [10] Shas
09 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

66 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
54 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 3,876 other followers