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Panels conducted a poll of 511 people with a 4.5% margin of error that was published in Maariv on Jan 16 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [21] Labor-Livni

22 [18] Likud

17 [11] Bayit Yehudi

11 [19] Yesh Atid

11 [11] *United Arab List

09 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

06 [10] Shas

06 [06] Meretz

00 [02] Ha’am Itanu

00 [02] Kadima

00 [00] Strong Israel

00 [00] Greeen Leaf

 

67 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

53 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Teleseker conducted a poll that was broadcast by Channel 1 on Jan 15 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [21] Labor-Livni

25 [18] Likud

17 [11] Bayit Yehudi

11 [11] *United Arab List (6 Raam-Taal-Balad, 5 Hadash)

09 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)

08 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [10] Shas

05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

05 [06] Meretz

00 [02] Ha’am Itanu – under 3.25% threshold

00 [02] Kadima

 

70 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Midgam conducted a poll of 450 people with a margin of error that is 4.5% that was broadcast by Channel 2 on Jan 15 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [21] Labor-Livni

23 [18] Likud

16 [11] Bayit Yehudi

11 [11] *United Arab List (6 Raam-Taal-Balad, 5 Hadash)

11 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)

07 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [10] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [06] Meretz

00 [02] Ha’am Itanu – under 3.25% threshold

00 [02] Kadima

 

68 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

52 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Dialog (PanelHaMidgam) conducted a poll of 860 people that was broadcast by Channel 10 on Jan 15 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [21] Labor-Livni

20 [18] Likud

16 [11] Bayit Yehudi

12 [11] *United Arab List

10 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [10] Shas

06 [06] Meretz

05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

04 [02] Ha’am Itanu

00 [02] Kadima

 

68 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

52 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Are you sure that you will vote for this party?

21% Koolanu, 60% Meretz, 75% Shas, 80% UTJ

Who is must suited to be Prime Minister?

42 Netanyahu 35 Herzog 23% Don’t know

Panels conducted a poll of 509 people with a 4.5% margin of error that was published by Knesset Channel on Jan 13 2015. Poll was conducted the day before.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [21] Labor-Livni

23 [18] Likud

16 [11] Bayit Yehudi

12 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [11] *United Arab List (5 Raam-Taal, 5 Hadash, under threshokd – 2 Balad)

09 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)

07 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [10] Shas

06 [06] Meretz

00 [02] Ha’am Itanu – 3 seats but under 3.25% threshold

00 [00] Strong Israel – 2 seats but under 3.25% threshold

00 [00] Greeen Leaf – 1 seats but under 3.25% threshold

00 [02] Kadima

 

68 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

52 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Teleseker conducted a poll that was published by Walla on Jan 12 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [18] Likud

23 [21] Labor-Livni

15 [11] Bayit Yehudi

11 [11] *United Arab List (6 Raam-Taal, 3 Hadash, 2 Balad)

10 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

06 [10] Shas

06 [06] Meretz

00 [02] Ha’am Itanu – under 3.25% threshold

00 [02] Kadima

 

70 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Will the attack in Paris change the election results?

Strengthen the right 52%, No change 43%, Strengthen the left 5%

Does Bayit Yehudi candidates’ opposition to same sex marriage change your opinion?

56% No change, 29% Less of a chance I vote for them (14% of BY voter), 15% Increase chance I vote for them.

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #6 (week of Jan 4-Jan 10 2015) of 6 polls from 4 polling companies (2 Panels, 2 Teleseker, 1 Smith, 1 Dialog, 0 Midgam, Maagar Mochot, Geocartography, Sarid, TRI, New Wave)

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 24.0 (23.2) [18] Likud

2nd 23.6 (23.6) [21] Labor+Livni

3rd 15.3 (16.0) [11] Bayit Yehudi

4th 10.3 (09.1) [19] Yesh Atid

5th 08.6 (09.0) [–] Koolanu

6th 07.5 (07.5) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

7th 06.6 (06.7) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

8th 06.1 (06.5) [06] Meretz

9th 06.0 (05.8) [10] Shas

10th 03.1 (03.3) [02] Ha’am Itanu (Yishai+Chetboun)

11th 11.0 (11.0) [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad (not all polls have them united)

12th 00.0 (00.1) [02] Kadima

 

68.8 (69.6) [61] Right-Religious (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

51.1 (50.3) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

 

Changes from week 5 to week 6:             

Likud replaces Labor-Livni as the largest party.

Largest Gains: Yesh Atid gained 1.2 seats, Likud gained .8 and Shas gained .2.

Biggest Losses: Bayit Yehudi dropped 0.7, Koolanu lost 0.4, Meretz dropped 0.4.

 

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 6:

1 – The post-primary bump: Likud 24.0 and Labor-Livni 23.6.

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud regained their #1 position thanks to a post-primary surge. The Likud primary produced more or less the same list, noting the exception of former Kadima MK Dichter replacing hardliner MK Feiglin in the top 26 spots reserved on the national list. Likud without Feiglin, who resigned from the party, is enjoying a bump. Deputy Minister Tzipi Hotovelly who placed #26 is now within the margin of error of returning as an MK.

The combined Labor-Livni list has stood its ground in the polls. Herzog is hoping for a Labor post-primary bump this week, but that will most likely be dependent on what list Labor voters choose. Livni has less than three weeks to decide on her party’s reserved slots and is expected to take into account the result of the Labor primary. Livni is happy that her former #2 Amram Mitzna labeling her as a dictator did not harm the joint list in the polls.

2 – Double Digits: Bayit Yehudi 15.3 and Yesh Atid 10.3

For the last two weeks Bayit Yehudi was the only other party in double digits, but that changes this week after Yesh Atid gained 1.2 seats. Although Yair Lapid will be the first to promote his sudden surge, things must be put into perspective. Yesh Atid, the largest party in the current Knesset with 19 seats, would lose about half its strength. Bayit Yehudi would net a gain of three-seats.

3 – Going Down: Koolanu 8.6, Yisrael Beitenu 6.6 and Meretz 6.1

What do these three parties have in common? They all lost strength this week – again. Moshe Kahlon’s Koolanu list seems to drop every time he announces another figure. Perhaps Kahlon should consider cloning himself or getting a better internal pollster. Yisrael Beitenu’s corruption scandal is still in the headlines and Homeland Security Minister Aharonovich is the latest Yisrael Beitenu Minister to announce he will not run for re-election. Zahava Gal-On, who ran unopposed, was re-appointed as Meretz leader. Meretz seems to be more focused on its internal central committee election for its Knesset slate than in the general election campaign.

4 – Haredim: UTJ 7.5, Shas 6.0, Ha’am Itanu 3.1

In most polls UTJ is at 7-8 seats and it will likely be the case until Election Day. Aryeh Deri is back and Shas continues its slow climb up.  Yishai failed to pass the threshold in 5 of the 6 polls taken this week.

5 – Blocs: 68.8 vs 51.1

The combined Likud-Bayit Yehudi-Koolanu-Yisrael Beitenu-UTJ-Shas bloc has gradually dropped over the last 6 weeks. Yishai not passing the threshold in most polls lowers the combined totals of Netanyahu’s potential partners.

6 – Week 7 Preview

Bayit Yehudi and Labor will be focused on their primaries. Kahlon will reveal more candidates. Additional Yisrael Beitenu MKs will most likely retire. Expect more drama in Shas now that Deri is back. We should grow closer to a United Arab List which means we should expect a few nasty headlines. Netanyahu will consider more names for his two reserved slots by leaking them to the public. Kadima’s Shaul Mofaz should surface after the Labor primary to ask Herzog for Defense Minister again in return for his 2-seats of campaign funding.

Smith conducted a poll that was broacast by Reshet Bet (Kol Yisrael) Radio on Jan 9 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [21] Labor-Livni

24 [18] Likud

16 [11] Bayit Yehudi

11 [11] *United Arab List

09 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)

07 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [10] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [06] Meretz

00 [02] Ha’am Itanu – under 3.25% threshold

00 [02] Kadima

 

69 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

51 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Galay Yisrael Radio on Jan 9 2015.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [18] Likud

23 [21] Labor-Livni

15 [11] Bayit Yehudi

11 [19] Yesh Atid

12 [11] *United Arab List

09 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)

07 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [10] Shas

06 [06] Meretz

00 [02] Ha’am Itanu – under 3.25% threshold

00 [02] Kadima

 

68 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

52 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Teleseker conducted a poll of 600 people with a 2-seat margin of error that was published by Walla and Maariv on Jan 9 2015. Additional questions were answered by 510 people.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [18] Likud

24 [21] Labor-Livni

15 [11] Bayit Yehudi

11 [11] *United Arab List (6 Ra’am-Ta’al, 3 Hadash, 2 Balad)

10 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)

09 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

06 [10] Shas

06 [06] Meretz

00 [02] Ha’am Itanu – under 3.25% threshold

00 [02] Kadima

 

70 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to be Prime Minister?

50% Netanyahu, 25% Herzog, 25% Don’t know/Neither

Who is to blame for the housing crisis?

37% Netanyahu, 25% Don’t know, 24% Lapid, 14% Olmert

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