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Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on December 11 2014

Who is most suited to be Prime Minister?

26% Netanyahu, 23% Herzog, 16% Bennett, 6% Livni, 4% Kachlon, 4% Liberman, 3% Lapid, 14% Don’t know

Smith conducted two polls of 500 people on Dec 8-9 and was published by Walla Dec 11 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]                                        

21 [15] Labor

20 [18] Likud

17 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

09 [–] Kulanu (Kachlon)

09 [11] Shas

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [06] Meretz

10 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al, Balad

00 [06] Livni

00 [02] Kadima

 

73 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

47 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

Scenario Poll with an Uri Ariel+Eli Yishai Party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]                                        

21 [15] Labor

19 [18] Likud

14 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

08 [–] Kulanu (Kachlon)

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [11] Shas

07 [–] Uri Ariel+Eli Yishai Party

06 [06] Meretz

10 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al, Balad

00 [06] Livni

00 [02] Kadima

 

73 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

47 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

Supposedly Midgam also conducted a poll that showed 7 seats:  3 from Likud, 2 from Bayit Yehudi, 1 from Shas & 1 from UTJ.

Midgam conducted two polls of 500 people with a margin of error of 4.5% broadcast by Channel 2 on Dec 11 2014.

Scenario poll of joint Likud-Bayit Yehudi ticket – 33

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]                                        

24 [21] Labor-Livni

23 [18] Likud

15 [12] Bayit Yehudi

09 [–] Kulanu (Kachlon)

09 [11] Shas

08 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [06] Meretz

11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al, Balad

00 [02] Kadima

 

72 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

48 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

Additional Questions:

Who do you prefer as Prime Minister?

36% Netanyahu 33% Herzog-Livni

Panels conducted two polls published by Maariv on Dec 11 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]                                        

24 [21] Labor-Livni

20 [18] Likud

17 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [–] Kulanu (Kachlon)

10 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

09 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [11] Shas

06 [06] Meretz

05 [04] Hadash

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

 

71 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

49 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

Second poll was a scenario poll of Lapid-Livni-Mofaz-Trachenbarg.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [42] Labor-Livni-Mofaz-Trachenbarg

21 [18] Likud

17 [12] Bayit Yehudi

09 [–] Kulanu (Kachlon)

09 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [11] Shas

05 [06] Meretz

05 [04] Hadash

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

00 [03] Balad

 

70 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

 

Additional Questions:

Who is most suited to be Prime Minister?

35% Herzog, 34% Netanyahu, 12% Bennett, 13% Saar, 9% Lapid, 8% Kachlon, 8% Liberman

Do you want to see Benjamin Netanyhau re-elected as Prime Minister?

66% No

What is motive behind Netanyahu’s 0 VAT on basic foods program?

78% Campaign trick, 17% Taking care of weaker sectors

Who should lead center-left block?

41% Herzog

What coalition do you prefer to be formed after elections?

28% Right-Religious, 24% Labor-Lapid-Liberman-Kachlon (no Bennett or Haredim), 21% National Unity Government, 19% Center-Left (no Haredim), 8% Don’t know

Who is more suited to serve as Defense Minister?

60% Yaalon, 21% Bennett, 19% Don’t know

Will the addition of this personality strengthen or weaken your decision to vote for their party?

Yuval Diskin: 43% strengthen, 40% weaken, 17% don’t know
Yoav Galant:  40% strengthen, 44% weaken, 16% don’t know
Manuel Trachtenberg: 34% strengthen, 41% weaken, 25% don’t know
Haim Amsalam: 27% strengthen, 49% weaken, 24% don’t know
Elazar Stern: 27% strengthen, 53% weaken, 20% don’t know

Dialog (Panel HaMidgam) conducted two scenario polls broadcast by Channel 10 on Dec 9 2014.

First scenario poll was with a Labor-Livni-Mofaz ticket.

Second scenario poll was with Gidon Saar at head of Likud – no change in any seats.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]                                         

22 [23] Labor-Livni-Mofaz (joint ticket)

20 [18] Likud

15 [12] Bayit Yehudi

13 [–] New Kachlon Party

11 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

10 [19] Yesh Atid

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [06] Meretz

05 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

00 [03] Balad

00 [06] Movement

00 [02] Kadima

 

73 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

47 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

 

Additional Questions:

Who is most suited to be Prime Minister?

23% Netanyahu, 22% Herzog, 13% Bennett, 13% Saar, 10% Kachlon, 10% Liberman, 9% Lapid

Do you believe Netanyahu will deliver on 0 VAT promise on basic food?

62% No, 22% Yes, 16% Don’t know

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Third scenario poll that has a Labor joint ticket as the largest party. A Labor+Livni+Mofaz list loses a seat from 23 to 22, and brings the Anti-BB coalition to 47 seats. Netanyahu’s Likud party has not been the largest party at the end of each of his 3 terms as PM & he might be forced to deal with a similar situation for his 4th, assuming President Rivlin gives him the chance.

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on Dec 8 2014.

Panels also conducted a scenario poll with Livni Party joining Labor.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]                                          

21 [18] Likud

18 [12] Bayit Yehudi

17 [15] Labor

12 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

10 [–] New Kachlon Party

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [11] Shas

07 [06] Meretz

05 [04] Hadash

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

00 [03] Balad

00 [06] Movement

00 [02] Kadima

 

74 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

46 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

 

Scenario Poll:

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]                                           

23 [21] Labor+Livni (Movement)

21 [18] Likud

18 [12] Bayit Yehudi

09 [19] Yesh Atid

09 [–] New Kachlon Party

09 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [11] Shas

06 [06] Meretz

05 [04] Hadash

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

 

72 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

48 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)
Additional Questions:

Who is most suited to be Prime Minister?

26% Netanyahu, 15% Herzog, 11% Bennett,

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Just like the Smith poll last week the Panels poll finds that a joint Herzog-Livni ticket would be the largest party however it only brings an extra 2 seats to the Anti-BB coalition, far off from helping the center-left-arab bloc form any sort of government.

Dialog conducted a poll for Channel 10 that was broadcast Dec 6 2014.

Are you satisfied from the following people, from a scale of 1 to 10?

5.8 Kachlon, 5.4 Bennett. 4.9 Netanyahu, 4.8 Liberman, 4.8 Herzog, 3.5 Lapid

 What will be your central consideration in choosing a party in this election?

48% Cost of living & Welfare, 18% Security threats, 15% Influence on the identity of Prime Minister, 10% Religion & State, 5% The diplomatic deadlock, 5% Don’t know

Do you agree that these elections are a national referendum on the conduct of Prime Minister Netanyahu?

48% Yes, 32% No, 20% Don’t know

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #1 (week of Nov 30-Dec 6 2014) of 12 polls from 9 polling companies (3 Maagar Mochot, 2 Dialog, 1 Panels, 1 Smith, 1 Midgam, 1 Teleseker, 1 New Wave, 1 Geocartography, 1 Sarid):

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 23.6 [18] Likud

2nd 16.6 [12] Bayit Yehudi

3rd 13.4 [15] Labor

4th 11.0 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

5th 09.9 [–] New Kachlon Party

6th 09.8 [19] Yesh Atid

7th 07.8 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

8th 07.6 [11] Shas

9th 06.8 [06] Meretz

10th 3.4 [06] Movement

11th ?.? [04] Hadash

12th ?.? [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

13th ?.? [03] Balad

14th .01 [02] Kadima

 

76.4 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

43.6 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

Party Breakdown

1st: Likud: High – 30 (Dec 3 Geocarteography), Low – 21 (Dec 5 Panels & Maagar Mochot)
2nd: Bayit Yehudi: High – 18 (Dec 5 Panels & Maagar Mochot), Low – 15 (Dec 5 Maagar Mochot)
3rd: Labor: High – 17 (Dec 3 Sarid), Low – 12 (3 different polls)
4th: Yisrael Beitenu: High – 14 (Dec 3 Geocarteography), Low – 9 (Dec 5 Panels & Maagar Mochot)
5th: Kachlon: High – 13 (Dec 5 New Wave), Low – 5 (Dec 3 Sarid)
6th: Yesh Atid: High – 11 (5 polls), Low-  7 (Dec 3 Geocarteography)
7th: UTJ: High – 8 (9 polls), Low – 7 (3 polls)
8th: Shas: High – 9 (3 polls), Low – 6 (Nov 30 Dialog)
9th: Meretz: High – 8 (Dec 5 Panels & Maagar Mochot), Low – 5 (Dec 3 Teleseker)

Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition): High – 84 (Dec 3 Geocarteography), Low – 70 (Dec 3 Sarid)
Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition): High – 50 (Dec 3 Sarid), Low – 36 (Dec 3 Geocarteography)

Midgam conducted a poll of 500 people that was  broadcast by Channel 2 on Dec 6 2014.

Are the following list of people suited to be Prime Minister?

Suited: 46% Netanyahu, 33% Bennett, 32% Herzog, 26% Kachlon, 23% Liberman, 20% Lapid

Do you want to see Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister?

65% No, 30% Yes, 5% Refuse to answer

Will you vote in next elections?

71% Yes, 24% Probably, 3% Probably not, 1% No, 1% Don’t know

Will you support the party you supported in last elections?

39% Loyal supporters, 27% Could change my mind, 17% On the fence, 6% Voting for someone else, 11% Don’t know

 

Panels conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.3% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 2 on Dec 4 2014.

In the next elections you will vote for the party that advances what agenda?

38% Lowering cost of living, 26% Security Issues, 14% Reducing the gaps, 13% Peace agreement, 9% Don’t know

Do you plan on voting in the next elections?

74% Yes, 16% Think so, 3% Probably not, 1% No, 6% Don’t know

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