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Panels conducted a Kachalon scenario poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel April 10th 2014.

The poll used the new threshold (3.25%).

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [31] Likud Beitenu

19 [15] Labor

13 [19] Yesh Atid

13 [12] Bayit Yehudi

13 [--] New Kachalon Party

12 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [04] Hadash

00 [15] Movement, Ra’am-Ta’al, Balad and Kadima don’t pass threshold.

59 [61] Right-Religious

48 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: These numbers would be different if they polled all Arab parties together.

Jeremy Saltan on Galay Yisrael Radio: Breakdown of Peace Talks and Racism near Jerusalem in Mevasseret Tzion.

http://www.jewishpress.com/tv/radio/breakdown-of-peace-talks-and-racism-in-a-jerusalem-neighborhood/2014/04/10/

or

http://yishaifleisher.com/radio/radio-breakdown-peace-talks-racism-jerusalem-neighborhood/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=radio-breakdown-peace-talks-racism-jerusalem-neighborhood

 

Knesset insider Jeremy Man Saltan discusses the breakdown of negotiations between Israel and Arab leadership and the root causes behind the end of the negotiations. He moves on to talk about how American Secretary of State John Kerry’s idea of ending the conflict in nine months has been an absolute failure and ends with a discussion about how racist Purim costumes near Jerusalem in Mevasseret Tzion, have caused the issue of racism to be brought to the forefront.

Midgam conducted two Kachalon scenario polls on April 8th 2014 that was broadcast by Channel 10 News.

The polls use the new threshold (3.25%).

First poll is with Likud Beitenu together:

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [31] Likud Beitenu

14 [15] Labor

13 [12] Bayit Yehudi

12 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [--] New Kachalon Party

08 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [06] Movement

12 [12] New Hadash- Ra’am-Ta’al-Balad Party

00 [02] Kadima
60 [61] Right-Religious

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab


Second poll with Likud and Beitenu separate:


Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [20] Likud

14 [15] Labor

13 [12] Bayit Yehudi

11 [19] Yesh Atid

11 [--] New Kachalon Party

08 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [11] Beitenu

04 [06] Movement

12 [12] New Hadash- Ra’am-Ta’al-Balad Party

00 [02] Kadima
60 [61] Right-Religious

49 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Likud is not taking a hit with the probable Kachalon return to politics. Although, if they run separately, Beitenu drops to 5 seats which is close to the new threshold he helped push through. Irony, huh? Labor is the real loser of the Kachalon return and barely keeps possession of second place. Many Israelis identify with Kachalon’s economic positions and Herzog’s emphasis on the diplomatic issues means little to many Israelis who care more about their daily lives. Kachalon is also more to the right when it comes to diplomatic/defense/national security issues, so this is a victory for the right in disguise. Yesh Atid does not suffer any further from a new player fighting over the centrist vote, although I expect that to change. Meretz who had enjoyed a recent bump loses a handful of seats to Kachalon as well. Shas keeps going down. Livni’s Movement Party actually passes the threshold. With the new threshold, only Kadima fails to pass it. Although things might change down the road, taking this one poll for what it is if I were Netanyahu, I might be happy to see a Kachalon Party.

Galay Yisrael Radio Interview from last night:

Knesset insider Jeremy Man talks about the three main bills that were presented in the Knesset right before the begin of their recess. Listen as Yishai and Man Saltan discuss the specifics of these bills and how everything shook out after votes in the Knesset. Additionally, some notes on housing.

http://yishaifleisher.com/radio/radio-jeremy-man-saltan-wrapping-knesset-session-voting-results/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=radio-jeremy-man-saltan-wrapping-knesset-session-voting-results

Panels Poll questions broadcast on Knesset Channel March 20 2014

Are you pleased or not pleased with the party you voted for in the 2013 election?

Likud Beitenu voters: 61% pleased, 28% not pleased.

Yesh Atid voters: 25% pleased, 75% not pleased.

Labor voters: 64% pleased, 36% not pleased.

Bayit Yehudi voters: 71% pleased, 29% not pleased.

Which subject should the next Knesset session focus on?

70% Cost of living, 18% negotiations with Palestinians, 8% Iranian threat, 1% Jewish conversion issue

Panels conducted two polls last weekend for Sof Shavua, the sister paper of the Jerusalem Post.
One poll with the new threshold of 3.25% and one poll with the 2% threshold.

New Threshold (3.25%)

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

36 [31] Likud Beitenu

20 [15] Labor

15 [12] Bayit Yehudi

12 [19] Yesh Atid

11 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [--] Strong Israel

00 [03] Balad

00 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

00 [02] Kadima

69 [61] Right-Religious

51 [59] Center-Left-Arab

 

Old Threshold (2%)

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [31] Likud Beitenu

19 [15] Labor

14 [12] Bayit Yehudi

11 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [03] Balad

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [--] Strong Israel

00 [02] Kadima

65 [61] Right-Religious

55 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Surprisingly, Strong Israel comes in with 4 mandates in the new poll.
Ra’am-Ta’al, Balad and Kadima do not pass the new threshold. The right-religious block grows to 69 seats under the new threshold, compared to 65 with the old threshold. Panels points out that not everyone is aware of the new threshold and that we do expect merging of the smaller parties in the near future.

The last of the Big 3 Bills passed yesterday evening.

The Basic Law was supposed to be voted on at 1 AM on Thursday, but the House Committee decided to move up the vote to 6:30 PM on Wed, due to the opposition’s boycott.  Unlike the other two bills all 68 coalition MKs showed up and voted in favor.

The official Knesset protocol will show that not one opposition MK gave a speech against the bill and no MK voted against the bill.

Speaker Edelstein announced that there was no coalition MKs objections and that all of the opposition objections were removed because the objecting MKs were not in the plenum to voice them.

Basic Law: National Referendum passed 68-0 in its second reading.

Basic Law: National Referendum passed 68-0 in its third reading.

To read more about the National Referendum Bill: http://knessetjeremy.com/2014/03/09/national-referendum-bill/

Basic Law: National Referendum (for good and for bad) is complete.

* The Knesset will come back for two more days of sessions on Tuesday and Wednesday next week before going to recess.

Do you want to learn more about each of the Big 3?

Two-part KnessetJeremy FM interview on Big 3 (Electoral Reform, Shaked, National Referendum) Bills.

Part 1 (from 4:30 on): https://soundcloud.com/yishaifleisher/march2014-q2-final-1
Part 2 (from 4:25 on) https://soundcloud.com/yishaifleisher/march2014-q3-final

Interview aired on Galey Yisrael on Tuesday March 11 2014.
The interview was conducted the day before.

Following the opposition boycott of the planned 21-hour session, as opposed to the planned 23-hour session for the Electoral Reform Bill, Speaker Edelstein re-opened up the session as planned at 10 AM.

Chairwoman Shaked (Bayit Yehudi) gave a speech highlighting certain aspects of the bill. She stated that around 22,000 Haredim will get an exemption for service in order for them to enter the workforce. She noted that the Haredim are 400 people away from meeting their target goals for this year in the army and 600 people away for national service target goals. She pointed out there are already thousands of Haredim serving in both and that the Haredim are expected to meet the target goals for this year by July. She said that those who don’t want to learn should go to army or national service and allow their friends who want to learn to be able to do so. She pointed out there are currently 800 haredim doing combat service. Every haredi combat soldier is counted as 1.5 toward enlistment goal numbers. She talked about the accomplishments of Haredim in the military, national service and the workforce while still devoting time to learning Torah. She praised the Ministry Economy plan for training and employing Haredim.

Minister Piron (Yesh Atid) gave a long speech that included quotes from Opposition Leader Herzog’s grandfather who was an Israeli Chief Rabbi.

Speaker Edelstein announced that all coalition MKs removed their objections. All of the opposition objections were removed because the objecting MKs were not in the building.

You can read more about the content bill here: http://knessetjeremy.com/2014/03/11/the-shaked-hardei-draftserviceemployment-bill/

National Service Bill passed its second reading 66-1 (with an MK present that was present but didn’t vote), 67-1, 67-0 (1 didn’t vote), 67-1. A government objection was accepted 68-0.
It passed in its third reading 67-1.

Amendment to the Security Service Bill passed its second reading 67-1 and third reading 67-1.

Minister Peri (Yesh Atid) thanked the Knesset for approving the bill.

Speaker Edelstein closed the session and said they would re-convene in 20 minutes for the regular Wed Knesset session.

The only coalition MK who voted against the bill is Bayit Yehudi MK Yoni Chetboun.
The 52 opposition MKs went through with their boycott. The official Knesset protocol will show that not one opposition MK gave a speech against the bill and not one opposition MK voted against the bill.

Shaked Law (for good and for bad) is complete.

The Shaked Bill is really two bills in one.
Both of the bills are very long, here is a quick summary of major points.
The National Service Bill 

Three different types of National Service:

Civilian-Security-Service (police, prison service, firefighting, protecting witnesses, green & beach police, magen david adom/ambulances, zaka, hatzala, other lifesaving organizations). 36 hours a week for two years.

Civilian-Social-Service (health, welfare, education, environment, absorbing immigration, assisting senior citizens, road safety, government hasbara, national archives work, overseas government work). Choice between 20 hours a week for three years or 30 hours a week for two years, either way it will be a 5-day work-week. 20 paid vacation days a year and 20 paid sick days a year.

Civilian-National Service (the type that we are familiar with today).

Amendment to the Security Service Bill

Everyone:

* Men service goes down from 36 to 32 months (2 years 8 months).
* Learning Torah will be recognized as a service to the State of Israel.

Religious-Zionists:

  • Hesder track will now serve a minimum of 17 months (1 year 5 months)
  • Shiluv, Mechina and other program track adjustments and additions.
  • Non-Hesder/Shiluv/Mechina Zionist Yeshiva deferments until age 23 or 26, depending on criteria.
  • Zionist Yeshiva students required to learn Torah 40-45 hours a week depending on criteria and not allowed to work.
  • Criteria to be included in law.
  • Reports Zionist Yeshivas must submit to government.

Haredim:

  • Becomes law on March 20 2014.
  • Adjustment period for Haredim ends July 1st 2017.
  • Defense Minister can allow each Haredi in age brackets 18-21 to defer their army service for up to 12 months each year.
  • Defense Minister can grant each Haredi at age 22 a two-year deferment until age 24 or two one-year deferments depending on criteria.
  • Defense Minister can allow each Haredi aged 24 and older to enter workforce.
  • After age 21 the various national service tracks can be opened up depending on criteria.
  • Haredim aged 24 and older can enter employment tracks.
  • Haredim can receive up to 15 hours of employment training a week.
  • A lot of executive power and room given to Minister of the Economy to integrate Haredim into workforce.
  • Defense Minister can release 26 year old Haredim from service if the Haredim meet their target goals after the five year adjustment period.
  • Even if Haredim don’t meet target goals, Haredim under 21 will be able to defer service until 21.
  • Each year 1,800 additional Haredim will be exempt from serving in military or national service.
  • Yeshiva students required to learn Torah 40-45 hours a week depending on criteria and not allowed to work.
  • Haredi Yeshiva students aged 22 and older who are married are allowed to work but still must put in the 40-45 hours learning.
  • Criteria for who is on list of Haredi Yeshiviot.
  • Government reports to Knesset on implementation of the law.
  • Criteria for hiring supervisors for this law.
  • There will be target numbers for military, and different target numbers for national
  • Bottom Line: The bill really gives the Defense Minister a lot of power on how it will be implemented.
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