Comments for Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Comment on Likud Beitenu 26, Labor 20, Yesh Atid 16, Bayit Yehudi 13, Shas 10 by g M

g M — Tue, 14 May 2013 06:19:21 +0000

assume:
1. am shalem is “more” religious zionism than hareidi
2. strong israel would join bayit yehudi
3. if netanyahu continues to try to play these construction freeze-games, bennett would be able to convince some likud-beiteinu MKs (maybe 7-12) or at least voters worth that amount to join bayit yehudi
4. the arab parties would merge into one party
5. there are still voters who do not wont to wote left (labor, meretz …) or right (likud-beiteinu, bayit yehudi …)

result (one possibility):
likud-beiteinu 22
bayit yehudi 26
arab parties 12 (one single party)
meretz 7
labor 20
Shas 10
UTJ 7
center 16 (merger of: rest of Yesh atid, movement, kadima)

from these numbers one could get a real zionist government that would build for real in Yesha, not a government where netanyahu tries to please Obama al the time

Comment on Likud Beitenu 26, Labor 20, Yesh Atid 16, Bayit Yehudi 13, Shas 10 by Squall

Squall — Mon, 13 May 2013 17:56:33 +0000

This is a good question, changing the threshold means also changing how people choose a party when they vote. For example, an israeli arab voting for Raam, Taal or Balad might choose Hadash or even Meretz or Labor because he’s afraid to waste his vote on a smaller party. Another one would simply not vote. It wont be just “maths”.

Comment on Likud Beitenu 26, Labor 20, Yesh Atid 16, Bayit Yehudi 13, Shas 10 by g M

g M — Mon, 13 May 2013 17:10:09 +0000

and i further wonder how these numbers would change when the new electoral reform law has raised the threeshold to 4% (=5 seats???) so that Movement, arab parties, Kadima, am shalem and Strong Israel does not mae it into Knesset. these seats has to somehuw be shared by the remaining parties and in that case, how many seats Bayit Yehudi would grab.

Comment on Likud Beitenu 26, Labor 20, Yesh Atid 16, Bayit Yehudi 13, Shas 10 by g M

g M — Mon, 13 May 2013 16:51:15 +0000

y well, i was just thinking that when, i guess it was 29/31 Likud-Beiteinu MK, do not partly support a withdrawal from Yesha, then should not more seats move to Bayit Yehudi and not to Strong Israel (as the new electoral reform law will probably mena that Strong Israel will not pass the threeshold)

Comment on Likud Beitenu 26, Labor 20, Yesh Atid 16, Bayit Yehudi 13, Shas 10 by Knesset Jeremy

Knesset Jeremy — Mon, 13 May 2013 16:37:53 +0000

This poll shows 4 seats (1 to Bayit Yehudi, 3 to Strong Israel) going to the right of Likud Beitenu.

Comment on Likud Beitenu 26, Labor 20, Yesh Atid 16, Bayit Yehudi 13, Shas 10 by g M

g M — Mon, 13 May 2013 16:02:03 +0000

should not bayit yehudi be able to pull more seats from likud and even gain e.g. 20-25 seats? i mean, after all this talk about bibi blocking construction?

Comment on First Poll After Shas Shakeup: Likud Beitenu 30, Yesh Atid 30, Bayit Yehudi 13, Labor 12, Shas 10 by Knesset Jeremy

Knesset Jeremy — Sun, 05 May 2013 16:03:51 +0000

Great question!

The answer is that the poll inspired me to write a piece called “20th Knesset Election Netanyahu vs Lapid”. I explain why the right-center block is the wrong one to count. I’ll link to it when it is posted.

Comment on First Poll After Shas Shakeup: Likud Beitenu 30, Yesh Atid 30, Bayit Yehudi 13, Labor 12, Shas 10 by Gidon Ariel

Gidon Ariel — Sun, 05 May 2013 15:22:45 +0000

Why don’t you provide the total for right center, which is what we have now, and would be 73?

Comment on Teleseker Maariv Polls: Likud 29, Labor 17/16, YA 17/13, YB 13/12 by imitation hermes birkin

imitation hermes birkin — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 07:40:14 +0000

Hello, your articles here Teleseker Maariv Polls: Likud 29, Labor 17/16, YA 17/13, YB 13/12 | Jeremy’s Knesset Insider to write well, thanks for sharing

Comment on Knesset Channel Panels Poll: Yesh Atid 28, Likud Beitenu 25, Labor 15, Bayit Yehudi 14 by Sean

Sean — Sun, 07 Apr 2013 20:09:51 +0000

The issue is ballot access not threshold. The government’s thinking is backwards. There shouldn’t be a gigantic list of 35 parties; in the last election, only 12 won seats. 3 other parties could have won 1 seat if there wasn’t a threshold. Doubling the threshold will just increase the number of “thrown out” votes. A better alternative would be to double the number of signatures required to get onto the ballot in the first place to show depth of support AND have a geographic requirement such as “You must get X number of signatures from each district” in order to show a breadth of support. Do more gatekeeping at the front end to rather than throwing out votes at the back end. If your party of choice couldn’t get on the ballot then you still have the opportunity to choose between the parties that did on election day. If you do this, you can get rid of the 2% threshold all together.

Another alternative is to keep the current threshold and have a 2nd choice option on the ballot. “If Otzma doesn’t break the threshold, I assign my vote to Bayit Yehudi.” “If Greens and Youth doesn’t get in, then my 2nd choice is Meeretz.” Or whatever. That way people can say “Well at least my 2nd choice got in”.

Either of those is a better alternative to just jacking up the threshold.