Smith conducted a poll for Reshet Bet Radio that was broadcast on March 25 2016
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
26 [30] Likud
19 [11] Yesh Atid
17 [24] Zionist Union
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Meretz
66 [67] Right-Religious
54 [53] Center-Left-Arab
Dialog conducted a scenario poll creating a new party list of Kahlon, Saar and Ashkenazi without deciding who would be the leader of the list and read the three names in a random order to each person. They asked 504 people that resulted in a 4.4% margin of error. Haaretz published the poll on March 24 2016
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
23 [10] New Kahlon+Saar+Ashkenazi List
22 [30] Likud
15 [24] Zionist Union
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
13 [11] Yesh Atid
10 [08] Bayit Yehudi
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [05] Meretz
51 [57] Right-Religious
46 [53] Center-Left-Arab
23 [10] New Party
Dialog also conducted a regular poll that was not published by Haaretz, although Haaretz did cite Likud, Yesh Atid, Zionist Union and Kulanu’s numbers including the significant movement in Bayit Yehudi and Yisrael Beitenu’s numbers.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
27 [30] Likud
20 [11] Yesh Atid
15 [24] Zionist Union
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [08] Bayit Yehudi
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [05] Meretz
67 [57] Right-Religious
53 [53] Center-Left-Arab
Panels conducted a poll for Knesset Channel that was broadcast March 21 2016.
What grade do you give Kahlon for his conduct as Finance Minister?
50% Average, 27% Good, 15% Bad, 6% Very Good
What is Kahlon’s main problem?
37% High housing prices, 20% Not trustworthy, 17% Food items too expensive, 17% He does not get enough support from the Prime Minister, 4% He has no main problem
Why is Moshe Kahlon’s party dropping in the polls?
51% Disappointment as Finance Minister, 23% Weak Knesset list, 15% He needs to rejoin the Likud, 11% Don’t Know
Center-Right Voters: If there a new Center-Right Party would be created, who should lead it?
32% Don’t Know, 23% Bennett, 18% Lapid, 12% Liberman, 7% Kahlon
Note #1: 32% of Center voters answered Lapid
Will you consider voting for Kulanu in the next election?
13% Yes, 87% No
Kahlon voters: 56% No, 44% Yes
Question for voters who won’t vote Kulanu again: How much did Minister Kahlon’s flip-flop on the Natural Gas Deal influence your decision to not vote for him?
59% No influence, 35% Influenced, 6% Don’t Know
Panels conducted a poll of 511 people with a 4.3% margin of error for Maariv & The Jerusalem Post that was published on March 18 2016
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
26 [30] Likud
21 [11] Yesh Atid
15 [24] Zionist Union
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [08] Bayit Yehudi
09 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [07] Shas
06 [05] Meretz
66 [67] Right-Religious
54 [53] Center-Left-Arab
Additional Questions:
On a scale of 1 (bad) to 10 (very good), what grade to you give each minister on the way they do their job?
6.4 Health Minister Litzman (UTJ)
5.8 Transportation Minister Y. Katz (Likud)
5.7 Justice Minister Shaked (Bayit Yehudi)
5.4 Education Minister Bennett (Bayit Yehudi)
5.4 Defense Minister Yaalon (Likud)
5.2 Finance Minister Kahlon (Kulanu)
5.2 Homeland Security Minister Erdan (Likud)
5.0 Culture & Sports Minister Regev (Likud)
4.9 Environment Minister Gabai (Kulanu)
4.9 Social Equality Minister Gamliel (Likud)
4.8 Immigration & Absorption Minister Elkin (Likud)
4.7 Tourism Minister Levin (Likud)
4.7 Science & Technology Minister Akunis (Likud)
4.6 Welfare Minister C. Katz (Likud)
4.5 Energy & Water Minister Steinitz (Likud)
4.5 Housing Minister Galant (Kulanu)
4.2 Agriculture Minister Ariel (Bayit Yehudi)
4.1 Religious Services Minister Azulouy (Shas)
4.1 Interior Minister Deri (Shas)
Benjamin Netanyahu numbers: 4.6 as Prime Minister, 4.1 as Foreign Minister, 3.9 as Communications Minister, 3.9 as Economy Minister and 3.8 Regional Cooperation Minister
Who would you vote for if there was an head to head direct election for Prime Minister of Israel?
56% Netanyahu, 25% Herzog, 19% Don’t Know
49% Netanyahu, 23% Liberman, 28% Don’t Know
47% Netanyahu, 36% Lapid, 17% Don’t Know
44% Netanyahu, 30% Ashkenazi, 26% Don’t Know
40% Netanyahu, 29% Bennett, 31% Don’t Know
If Clinton & Trump are the nominees for President of the United States, which one would you like to see in the White House?
45% Clinton, 33% Trump, 22% Don’t Know
Note #1: Among right-wing voters – 44% Trump, 32% Clinton
Do you think Herzog should join a national unity government led by Netanyahu?
65% No, 21% Yes, 14% Don’t Know
Do you think Lapid should join a national unity government led by Netanyahu?
53% No, 36% Yes, 11% Don’t Know
Do you regret your vote from one year ago?
78% No, 17% Yes, 5% Don’t Know
Note #1: Voters most regretted voting for Kulanu. 2nd place is Joint List and 3rd place is the Zionist Union. Yisrael Beitenu is 4th, Likud 5th, Shas 6th, Bayit Yehudi 7th, Yesh Atid 8th, Meretz 9th and UTJ 10th.
Note #2: 17% of Likud voters (the average of all ten parties) regretted their vote. 6% would vote today for Bennett, 6% for Lapid & 5% for Liberman.
Note #3: Yesh Atid’s growth includes 36% of Kulanu voters, 19% of Zionist Union voters, 9% of Meretz voters and 5% of Yisrael Beitenu voters.
Do you think that Netanyahu holding on to the Communications portfolio and his policies are a danger for democracy and freedom of expression?
40% Yes, 29% No because they have no impact, 13% No because I agree with his policies
Note #1: 21% of Likud voters answered yes.
What grade do you give Herzog as Opposition Leader from 1 to 10?
3.5
Is Culture & Sports Minister Regev advancing Sephardi Jews or harming them?
31% Harming, 27% Advancing
Note #1: Among Likud voters – 38% Advancing, 18% Harming
Note #2: Among Sephardi voters – 38% Advancing, 28% Harming
Note #3: Among Ashkenazi voters – 31% Harming, 25% Advancing
Is there an alternative to Netanyahu as Prime Minister?
46% Yes, 41% No, 13% Don’t Know
Note #1: Among Right voters – 53% No, 36% Yes
Note #2: Among Center voters – 60% Yes, 27% No
Note #3: Among Left voters – 75% Yes, 16% No
Note #4: Among Likud voters – 70% No, 23% Yes
When Netanyahu retires, who should replace him as Likud leader?
20% Saar, 11% Yaalon, 11% Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat, 9% Erdan, 7% Y. Katz
Note #1: Among Likud voters – 18% Saar, 15% Erdan, 11% Yaalon, 9% Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat, 8% Y. Katz
Next week will mark one year since the March 17, 2015 election. Overall there have been ten public polls released since the election. These are all recent polls since there was no public polling on Knesset seats from late March through late November. Following every election there are questions on the accuracy of polls. When media outlets start ordering polls again there are questions on the necessity of polling in the middle of a term when there is no election in sight and before the end-of-term mergers and splits. My argument here is that polls are more accurate than they are given credit for, and their influence on Israeli politics is profound.
Polling is a science, but it is not an exact science. If the parameters of the model are off so is the estimated margin of error. The Israeli system for allocating seats is a complicated one, and most polling companies cannot predict all mathematical scenarios with their models. Some models are better than others, but each one has its flaws. The saying goes that if you ask two Jews a question you will get three opinions. Polling Jews can be difficult, and finding a representative sample of minority groups can prove even more difficult. However, polling is still the best tool we have for measuring public opinion.
Polling is not just a scientific tool. It can also be used as a political tool because many undecided voters make up their mind by looking at the polls that can influence their final vote. It was for that reason that Israel passed a law prohibiting the publishing of election polls in the last five days before an election. It is difficult to make a final prediction when you need to do so five days in advance.
In 2015 polling companies were blamed not only for getting it wrong with their last polls five days before the election, but also for getting it wrong with the exit polls. The exit poll average was correct on eight of the ten parties with a +1/-1 margin of error. The exit polls were wrong on the two largest lists, Likud and the Zionist Union. That was enough for no media outlet to order a public poll of Knesset seats for the 8 months following the election.
My weekly Poll of Polls model and Election Forecast was carried by The Huffington Post, Haaretz, Jerusalem Post, Jewish Press, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, and others. I updated my final prediction model for 2015 with my latest momentum model that tracked the week-by-week changes of the 15-week-campaign in addition to the methodology of my 2013 model that took into account voter exchange agreements, disqualified votes, votes from parties not expected to pass the 3.25% threshold, fractions of seats, and various 120th seat (last seat) scenarios. My model was released 5 days before the election, and I predicted correctly +1/-1 on eight of the ten party lists with the exception of the Bayit Yehudi to Likud swing that occurred during the five day public polling blackout.
Phase 1 is something that polling can measure (read a quick explanation of the three phases of choosing a Prime Minister here My Weekend Perspective: The Key to Defeating Netanyahu is Phase 2). Phases 2 and 3 require a different type of analysis. Many analysts’ pre-election coalition scenarios were flat out wrong. My Phase 2 prediction of Likud, Bayit Yehudi, Shas, UTJ & Kulanu recommending Netanyahu for Prime Minister was correct. My prediction that there would be some sort of change between Phase 2 and Phase 3 was also correct. Yisrael Beitenu opted to vote against the government in Phase 3 despite their Phase 2 nomination of Netanyahu.
There have been ten polls released for public consumption since the election and all of them have been conducted over the last four months. The idea behind polling Knesset seats during a Knesset term is not about predicting election results. The purpose is to measure the popularity of each party based on the policy choices they are making and their public responses to current events.
The chart below averages these ten polls. I’d like to offer my analysis and explanation of why this polling matters. Likud remains in first place with a drop from 30 seats to 26.9. Despite the 3-seat drop Likud is in first place and has been in first place in each of the ten polls. Yesh Atid jumps from 11 seats to 18. This is the largest jump and the most important as Lapid’s party goes from the fourth largest party to the second largest. The Zionist Union drops from 24 to 17.1 and more importantly from the second largest party in Knesset to third place in the average of polling. The Joint List goes from 13 seats to 12.8 and drop from the third to fourth largest party. Bayit Yehudi jumps from 8 to 11.5 and improves a spot to enter the top 5. Yisrael Beitenu improves two spots as they go up from 6 to 8.3 seats. Shas stays in the same spot as they go from 7 seats to 6.8 in polling. UTJ goes up a spot from 6 to 6.6 seats. Kulanu drops four spots from 5th to 9th place, and not one poll has Kahlon in double-digits as they dip from 10 to a 6.5 average. Meretz remains in last place above the threshold as they grow from 5 to a 5.5 average.
In terms of the blocs we are pretty much where we were before the election with 66.6 for the right-religious bloc and 53.4 for the center-left-Arab bloc. Not much has changed since the election results of 67-53.
This week the Knesset had their monthly discussion with the Prime Minister as mandated by the signatures of 40 opposition MKs. Following the Prime Minister’s speech, Opposition Leader Herzog got up to speak and for the first time decided to use the occasion to target Lapid over Netanyahu in his attacks. When the Opposition Leader dedicates his 40 signatures speech for an attack on the head of another opposition party, as opposed to the prime minister, as is customary, there is no external threat to the government. There was no reason to attack Lapid unless Herzog has been looking at the polls.
Herzog’s speech attacking Lapid proves the relevance and influence of polls on politics, why polls do matter in the middle of a term, and how polls can be used as a political tool instead of a scientific one.
| 2015 Results | 10 Poll Avg | 2015 Placing | 10 Poll Avg | Up/Down | |
| Likud | 30 | 26.9 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| Yesh Atid | 11 | 18.0 | 4th | 2nd | 2 |
| Zionist Union | 24 | 17.1 | 2nd | 3rd | -1 |
| Joint List | 13 | 12.8 | 3rd | 4th | -1 |
| Bayit Yehudi | 8 | 11.5 | 6th | 5th | 1 |
| Yisrael Beitenu | 6 | 8.3 | 8th | 6th | 2 |
| Shas | 7 | 6.8 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| UTJ | 6 | 6.6 | 9th | 8th | 1 |
| Kulanu | 10 | 6.5 | 5th | 9th | -4 |
| Meretz | 5 | 5.5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| Right-Religious | 67 | 66.6 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Center-Left-Arab | 53 | 53.4 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Exit Poll Source: http://knessetjeremy.com/2015/03/18/comparing-results-after-over-99-of-results-to-exit-polls-and-knesset-jeremy-model/
Teleseker conducted a poll of 525 people for Channel 1 that was broadcast on March 9 2016
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
25 [30] Likud
21 [11] Yesh Atid
15 [24] Zionist Union
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [05] Meretz
65 [67] Right-Religious
55 [53] Center-Left-Arab
Midgam conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.5% margin of error for Chaanel 2 that was broadcast on March 5 2016
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
26 [30] Likud
19 [11] Yesh Atid
18 [24] Zionist Union
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [07] Shas
05 [05] Meretz
65 [67] Right-Religious
55 [53] Center-Left-Arab
Smith conducted a poll for Reshet Bet Radio that was broadcast on Feb 26 2016
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
27 [30] Likud
19 [24] Zionist Union
18 [11] Yesh Atid
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [08] Bayit Yehudi
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [07] Shas
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Meretz
64 [67] Right-Religious
56 [53] Center-Left-Arab
Panels conducted a poll of 507 people with a 4.3% margin of error for Jerusalem Post and Maariv that was published on Feb 19 2016
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
27 [30] Likud
18 [11] Yesh Atid
15 [24] Zionist Union
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [08] Bayit Yehudi
10 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [05] Meretz
69 [67] Right-Religious
51 [53] Center-Left-Arab
Additional Questions:
Do you believe reports about Sara Netanyahu’s problematic behavior?
62% Yes, 20% Don’t know, 18% No
Will such behavior harm the prime minister’s ability to do his job?
66% Yes, 23% No, 11% Don’t know
Does Sara Netanyahu’s behavior did not harm their opinion of her husband?
50% No, 44% Yes, 6% Don’t know
Likud voters: Only 19% said yes.
Do you believe the reports about Sara Netanyahu?
46% No, 33% Yes, 21% Don’t know
Panels conducted a poll for Knesset Channel that was broadcast on Feb 11 2016
In principle do you support or oppose the proposed bill that would allow MKs in certain cases to oust a sitting MK?
54% Support, 35% Oppose, 11% Don’t Know
What do you think of the Knesset Ethics Committee punishment of the Balad MKs?
61% Too light, 26% Proportional, 13% Too severe
What is your sense of security on a day-to-day basis?
41% Somewhat secure, 27% Very secure, 20% Little bit secure, 10% Not secure
(Geographically the area that feels least secure is the southern residents)
How satisfied are you with the government’s conduct during the current terror wave?
77% Not satisfied, 19% Satisfied, 4% No opinion on the subject
Compared to this time last year, has your personal sense of security been harmed?
56% Harmed, 40% Not harmed, 4% Don’t know
Do you support Netanyahu’s announcement that all of Israel’s borders will be completely surrounded by a security fence?
61% Yes, 24% No
If there is no partner on the other side, do you support one-sided moves?
49% Yes, 42% No
http://knessetjeremy.com/feed/
