Category: Daily Updates


Candidates for Knesset Lists in English

Zionist Union – Labor + Livni Movement Party (Currently polling 1st 25.2 seats) – אמת

1 Isaac Herzog

2 Tzipi Livni

3 Shelly Yachimovitch

4 Stav Shafir

5 Isaac Shmueli

6 Omer Bar-Lev

7 Yechiel Bar

8 Amir Peretz

9 Merav Michaeli

10 Eitan Cabel

11 Manuel Trachtenberg

12 Erel Margalit

13 Mickey Rosenthal

14 Revital Swed

15 Daniel Atar

16 Yoel Hasson

17Bahlul Zuhair

18Eitan Brushi

19 Michal Biran

20 Nachman Shai

21 Svetlova Kasnia

22 Vrabin Nahmias

23 Yosef Yonah

24 Eyal Ben-Reuven

25Yael Cohen Paran

26 Saleh Saad

27 Leah Fadida

28 Robert Tibayev

29 Moshe Mizrahi

30 Eldad Yaniv

Likud (Currently Polling 2nd 24.4 seats) – מחל

1 Benjamin Netanyahu

2 Gilad Erdan

3 Yuli Edelstein

4 Yisrael Katz

5 Miri Regev

6 Silvan Shalom

7 Boogie Ya’alon

8 Zeev Elkin

9 Danny Danon

10 Yariv Levin

11 Benny Begin

12 Tzachi Hanegbi

13 Yuval Steinitz

14 Gila Gamliel

15 Ofir Akonis

16 David Bitan

17 Chaim Katz

18 Jacky Levi

19 Yoav Kish

20 Tzipi Hotoveli

21David Amsalem

22 Zohar Makhlouf

23 Anat Berko

24 Ayub Kara

25 Nava Boker

26 Avi Dichter

27 Abraham Nagosa

28 Nurit Koren

29 Yaron Mazuz

30 Oren Hazan

Bayit Yehudi (Currently polling 3rd 14.7 seats) - טב

1 Naftali Bennett

2 Uri Ariel

3 Ayelet Shaked

4 Eli Ben-Dahan

5 Nissan Slomiansky

6 Uri Orbach

7 Yinon Magal

8 Moti Yogev

9 Bezalel Smotrich

10 Shuli Mualem

11 Avi Wortzman

12 Nir Orbach

13 Avi Rontzky

14 Orit Struck

15 Anat Roth

16 Ronen Shoval

17 Avi Boaron

18 Nachi Eyal

19 Moshe Solomon

20 Yehudit Shilat

United Arab List (Currently polling  4th 12 seats) – וםד

1 Ayman Odeh

2 Massoud Ghanaym

3 Jamal Zahalka

4 Ahmed Tibi

5 Aida Touma-Suleiman

6 Haj Yahya Abd al-Hakim

7 Haneen Zoubi

8 Dov Khenin

9 Taleb Abu Arar

10 Jabarin Joseph

11 Basel Ghattas

12 Saadia Osama

13 Abdullah Abu Marouf

14 Azbargh Juma

15 H’romi Said

Yesh Atid (Currently polling 5th 9.4 seats) – פה

1 Yair Lapid

2 Shai Piron

3 Yael German

4 Meir Cohen

5 Yaakov Perry

6 Ofer Shelach

7 Chaim Yellin

8 Karin Elharar

9 Yoel Razvozov

10 Aliza Lavie

11 Mickey Levy

12 Elazar Stern

Koolanu (Currently polling 6th 7.7 seats) – כ

1 Moshe Kahlon

2 Yoav Galant

3 Eli Elalouf

4 Michael Oren

5 Rachel Azaria

6 Tali Floskob

7 Yifat Biton

8 Eliahu Cohen

9 Roei Volkmann

10 Merav Ben Ari

UTJ/Yahadut HaTorah (Currently polling 7th 7.1 seats) – ג

1 Yaakov Litzman

2 Moshe Gafni

3 Meir Porush

4 Uri Maklev

5 Eliezer Moses

6 Yisrael Eichler

7 Yaakov Asher

8 Eliezer Sorotzkin

Shas (Currently polling 7th 7.1 seats) – שס

1 Aryeh Deri

2 Yitzack Cohen

3 Meshulam Nahari

4 Yakov Margi

5 David Azoulay

6 Yoav Ben-Zur

7 Yitzhak Vaknin

8 Avraham Michaeli

Yisrael Beitenu (Currently polling 9th 5.4 seats) – ל

1 Avigdor Lieberman

2 Orly Levy

3 Sofa Landver

4 Ilan Shohat

5 Gal Sharon

6 Hamad Amar

7 Robert Iltov

Meretz (Currently polling 10th 5.3 seats) – מרץ

1 Zahava Gal-On

2 Ilan Gilon

3 Isawiyya Ferig

4 Michal Rosin

5 Tamar Zandberg

6 Mossi Raz

Yachad (Currently polling 11th 3.3 seats) – זך

1 Eli Yishai

2 Yoni Chetboun

3 Aish Makhlouf

4 Baruch Marzel

5 Sasson Trbolsi

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #5 (week of Dec 28-Jan 3 2014) of 8 polls from 6 polling companies (2 Panels, 2 Smith, 1 Dialog, 1 Teleseker, 1 Midgam, 1 Maagar Mochot, 0 Geocartography, Sarid, TRI, New Wave)

 

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

 

1st 23.6 (23.2) [21] Labor+Livni

2nd 23.2 (22.6) [18] Likud

3rd 16.0 (15.7) [11] Bayit Yehudi

4th 09.1 (09.5) [19] Yesh Atid

5th 09.0 (08.8) [–] Koolanu

6th 07.5 (06.8) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

7th 06.7 (08.0) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

8th 06.5 (06.5) [06] Meretz

9th 05.8 (05.3) [10] Shas

10th 3.3 (03.6) [02] Ha’am Itanu (Yishai+Chetboun)

11th 11.0 (10.7) [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad (not all polls have them united)

12th 00.1 (00.0) [02] Kadima

 

69.6 (70.0) [61] Right-Religious (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

50.3 (50.0) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

 

Changes from week 4 to week 5:

UTJ moves up to 6th, Yisrael Beitenu drops to 7th.

Largest Gains: UTJ gained .7, Likud gained .6 and Shas gained .5.

Biggest Losses: Yisrael Beitenu dropped 1.3 seats, Yesh Atid lost 0.4, Ha’am Itanu dropped 0.3.

 

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 5:

1 – Labor-Livni 23.6, Likud 23.2, Bayit Yehudi 16.

The three largest parties went up again this week, at the expense of the center. Prime Minister Netanyahu is encouraged by increasing poll numbers, however the average of the parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition bloc is now under 70 (69.6) for the first time. Bayit Yehudi remains the only other party in double digits.

2 – Likud Primary Results.

The Likud moved to the center in the 2015 primaries. Former Kadima MK Avi Dichter bumps right-wing MKs Moshe Feiglin & Tzipi Hotoveli off the list and MKs Danny Danon & Yariv Levin have been bumped down the list. The Likud’s Top 20 will only have 2 female candidates and no one under the age of 40. Likud lost members over the last two years and turnout was lower this time as well. The only candidates in realistic spots who improved in terms of actual votes were Speaker Edelstein, and female MKs Regev and Gamliel.

The winner of the primary is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who is very happy with the results. The new Electoral Reform Bill will go into effect and limit the next government to 18 ministers and 4 deputy ministers.  Just like last time, expect Netanyahu to ignore the actual order of the list and to appoint whoever he wants for Likud’s top positions in the next government. This time there will be less to go around.

3 – Yisrael Beitenu dropped 1.3 seats this week, lost 4.3 seats over last four weeks.

The corruption scandal is still in the headlines and Foreign Minister Liberman is still pivoting towards the center. Yisrael Beitenu has 13 seats in the current Knesset and is now averaging less than UTJ in the polls. Last week Yisrael Beitenu averaged 8 seats, 8 seats was their high this week. Momentum is not on their side.

4 – Shas goes up following Deri’s resignation

Aryeh Deri resigned from Shas and Shas gained as a result, at the expense of Eli Yishai. Initially Deri was not expected to return to Shas for another 3 weeks or so. Internal polls reveal Shas under former #3 Ariel Attias would score no differently than Shas under Deri. Expect Deri to return to Shas this week.

5 – Week 6 Preview

Expect Labor & Likud to keep gaining ground at the expense of Yisrael Beitenu. Expect scenario polling on who Netanyahu should use his reserved spots for. Expect increased focus on Labor & Bayit Yehudi primaries. Polling the United Arab List should get easier soon. Hadash’s Central Committee approved (under their own conditions) a joint United Arab List with Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad. Expect more drama in Yisrael Beitenu and Shas.

Likud 2015 List:

Number-Name (previous ranking in 2013 &2009)

1 – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (#1 in 2013 & 2009)

2 – Minister Gilad Erdan (#3 in 2013 & 2009)

3 – Speaker Yuli Edelstein (#12 in 2013 & 2009)

4 – Minister Yisrael Katz (#5 in 2013, #11 in 2009)

5 – MK Miri Regev (#14 in 2013, #27 in 2009)

6 – Minister Silvan Shalom (#4 in 2013, #7 in 2009)

7 – Minister Moshe Yaalon (#8 in 2013 & 2009)

8 – Former Deputy Minister Zeev Elkin (#9 in 2013, #20 in 2009)

9 – Former Deputy Minister Danny Danon (#6 in 2013, #24 in 2009)

10 – MK Yariv Levin (#11 in 2013, #21 in 2009)

11 – Netanyahu Reserved Spot

12 – Deputy Minister Tzachi Hanegbi (#17 in 2013, Kadima MK in 2009)

13 – Minister Yuval Steinitz (#16 in 2013, #9 in 2009)

14 – Former Deputy Minister Gila Gamliel (#20 in 2013, #19 in 2009)

15 – Deputy Minister Ofir Akunis (#19 in 2013, #26 in 2009)

16 – New District Position

17 – MK Haim Katz (#13 in 2013, #14 in 2009)

18 – New District Position

19 – New District Position

20 – Former Minister Avi Dichter (#59 in 2013, Kadima MK in 2009)

Other notables

24 – Former Deputy Minister Ayoub Kara (#39 in 2013, #23 in 2009) – Spot reserved for non-Jew.

26 – Deputy Minister Tzipi Hotovely (#10 in 2013, #18 in 2009)

36 – MK Moshe Feiglin (#15 in 2013, #36 in 2009)

37 – Former Deputy Minister Michael Ratzon (sat out 2013, #37 in 2009)

_______________________________________________________________________________

Voting

Name – 2014 Votes (2012 votes)

Erdan – 38,517 (44,875)

Edelstein – 35,893 (29,138)

Y Katz – 35,510 (41,662)

Regev – 33,385 (27,999)

Shalom – 29,808 (41,957)

Ya’alon – 27,973 (34,458)

Elkin – 25,879 (31,060)

Danon – 24,797 (36,881)

Levin – 24,258 (29,381)

Hanegbi – 24,146 (23,561)

Steinitz – 23,525 (26,109)

Gamliel –23,093 (21,843)

Akunis – 22,856 (22,898)

C Katz – 22,575 (29,035)

Dichter – 20,892 (21,455)

Hotovely – 20,837 (28,133)

Feiglin – 14,581 (26,472)

Kara – 13,963 (12,858)

Ratzon – 10,731

Note: 38 candidates ran for Likud ‘national list’. I am only providing results for the top 19 candidates.

_______________________________________________________________________________

Analysis

The Likud moved to the center in the 2015 primaries. Former Kadima MK Avi Dichter bumps right-wing MKs Moshe Feiglin & Tzipi Hotoveli off the list and MKs Danny Danon was bumped down the list. The Likud’s Top 20 will only have 2 female candidates and no one under the age of 40. Likud lost members over the last two years and turnout was lower this time as well. The only candidates in realistic spots who improved in terms of actual votes were Speaker Edelstein, MK Hanegbi and female MKs Regev and Gamliel.

The winner of the primary is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who is very happy with the results. The new Electoral Reform Bill will go into effect and limit the next government to 18 ministers and 4 deputy ministers.  Just like last time, expect Netanyahu to ignore the actual order of the list and to appoint whoever he wants for Likud’s top positions in the next government. This time there will be less to go around.

* Updated to reflect changes in voting after recount of Jan 4 2015.

Today is the Likud Primaries.
No matter what the results are, the press will determine that the party has gone to the right, as they do every election.
There are 38 people running for the national list and each Likud member must vote for 11.
So, I thought it would be a good idea to present the list of the 11 most right-wing candidates.
This way we can all note how some of them did not get in and that the Likud did not “elect the most right-wing candidates possible”.

The list:

102 אדלשטיין יולי יואל
103 אלקין זאב
105 ארדן גלעד
110 דנון דני
116 חוטובלי ציפי
121 לוין יריב
125 מלכה ישעיהו שי
129 פייגלין משה זלמן
133 קרא איוב
135 רצון מיכאל
138 שטרן שבח

 

 

The last of the Big 3 Bills passed yesterday evening.

The Basic Law was supposed to be voted on at 1 AM on Thursday, but the House Committee decided to move up the vote to 6:30 PM on Wed, due to the opposition’s boycott.  Unlike the other two bills all 68 coalition MKs showed up and voted in favor.

The official Knesset protocol will show that not one opposition MK gave a speech against the bill and no MK voted against the bill.

Speaker Edelstein announced that there was no coalition MKs objections and that all of the opposition objections were removed because the objecting MKs were not in the plenum to voice them.

Basic Law: National Referendum passed 68-0 in its second reading.

Basic Law: National Referendum passed 68-0 in its third reading.

To read more about the National Referendum Bill: http://knessetjeremy.com/2014/03/09/national-referendum-bill/

Basic Law: National Referendum (for good and for bad) is complete.

* The Knesset will come back for two more days of sessions on Tuesday and Wednesday next week before going to recess.

Following the opposition boycott of the planned 21-hour session, as opposed to the planned 23-hour session for the Electoral Reform Bill, Speaker Edelstein re-opened up the session as planned at 10 AM.

Chairwoman Shaked (Bayit Yehudi) gave a speech highlighting certain aspects of the bill. She stated that around 22,000 Haredim will get an exemption for service in order for them to enter the workforce. She noted that the Haredim are 400 people away from meeting their target goals for this year in the army and 600 people away for national service target goals. She pointed out there are already thousands of Haredim serving in both and that the Haredim are expected to meet the target goals for this year by July. She said that those who don’t want to learn should go to army or national service and allow their friends who want to learn to be able to do so. She pointed out there are currently 800 haredim doing combat service. Every haredi combat soldier is counted as 1.5 toward enlistment goal numbers. She talked about the accomplishments of Haredim in the military, national service and the workforce while still devoting time to learning Torah. She praised the Ministry Economy plan for training and employing Haredim.

Minister Piron (Yesh Atid) gave a long speech that included quotes from Opposition Leader Herzog’s grandfather who was an Israeli Chief Rabbi.

Speaker Edelstein announced that all coalition MKs removed their objections. All of the opposition objections were removed because the objecting MKs were not in the building.

You can read more about the content bill here: http://knessetjeremy.com/2014/03/11/the-shaked-hardei-draftserviceemployment-bill/

National Service Bill passed its second reading 66-1 (with an MK present that was present but didn’t vote), 67-1, 67-0 (1 didn’t vote), 67-1. A government objection was accepted 68-0.
It passed in its third reading 67-1.

Amendment to the Security Service Bill passed its second reading 67-1 and third reading 67-1.

Minister Peri (Yesh Atid) thanked the Knesset for approving the bill.

Speaker Edelstein closed the session and said they would re-convene in 20 minutes for the regular Wed Knesset session.

The only coalition MK who voted against the bill is Bayit Yehudi MK Yoni Chetboun.
The 52 opposition MKs went through with their boycott. The official Knesset protocol will show that not one opposition MK gave a speech against the bill and not one opposition MK voted against the bill.

Shaked Law (for good and for bad) is complete.

The Shaked Bill is really two bills in one.
Both of the bills are very long, here is a quick summary of major points.
The National Service Bill 

Three different types of National Service:

Civilian-Security-Service (police, prison service, firefighting, protecting witnesses, green & beach police, magen david adom/ambulances, zaka, hatzala, other lifesaving organizations). 36 hours a week for two years.

Civilian-Social-Service (health, welfare, education, environment, absorbing immigration, assisting senior citizens, road safety, government hasbara, national archives work, overseas government work). Choice between 20 hours a week for three years or 30 hours a week for two years, either way it will be a 5-day work-week. 20 paid vacation days a year and 20 paid sick days a year.

Civilian-National Service (the type that we are familiar with today).

Amendment to the Security Service Bill

Everyone:

* Men service goes down from 36 to 32 months (2 years 8 months).
* Learning Torah will be recognized as a service to the State of Israel.

Religious-Zionists:

  • Hesder track will now serve a minimum of 17 months (1 year 5 months)
  • Shiluv, Mechina and other program track adjustments and additions.
  • Non-Hesder/Shiluv/Mechina Zionist Yeshiva deferments until age 23 or 26, depending on criteria.
  • Zionist Yeshiva students required to learn Torah 40-45 hours a week depending on criteria and not allowed to work.
  • Criteria to be included in law.
  • Reports Zionist Yeshivas must submit to government.

Haredim:

  • Becomes law on March 20 2014.
  • Adjustment period for Haredim ends July 1st 2017.
  • Defense Minister can allow each Haredi in age brackets 18-21 to defer their army service for up to 12 months each year.
  • Defense Minister can grant each Haredi at age 22 a two-year deferment until age 24 or two one-year deferments depending on criteria.
  • Defense Minister can allow each Haredi aged 24 and older to enter workforce.
  • After age 21 the various national service tracks can be opened up depending on criteria.
  • Haredim aged 24 and older can enter employment tracks.
  • Haredim can receive up to 15 hours of employment training a week.
  • A lot of executive power and room given to Minister of the Economy to integrate Haredim into workforce.
  • Defense Minister can release 26 year old Haredim from service if the Haredim meet their target goals after the five year adjustment period.
  • Even if Haredim don’t meet target goals, Haredim under 21 will be able to defer service until 21.
  • Each year 1,800 additional Haredim will be exempt from serving in military or national service.
  • Yeshiva students required to learn Torah 40-45 hours a week depending on criteria and not allowed to work.
  • Haredi Yeshiva students aged 22 and older who are married are allowed to work but still must put in the 40-45 hours learning.
  • Criteria for who is on list of Haredi Yeshiviot.
  • Government reports to Knesset on implementation of the law.
  • Criteria for hiring supervisors for this law.
  • There will be target numbers for military, and different target numbers for national
  • Bottom Line: The bill really gives the Defense Minister a lot of power on how it will be implemented.

Following the opposition boycott of the planned 23-hour session, Speaker Edelstein re-opened up the session as planned at 10 AM. Chairman Rotem (L.B.) blasted the opposition’s boycott. Minister Liberman (L.B.) pointed out that it is ridiculous that Labor and Meretz leaders proposed many of the measures in the bill including the raising of the threshold and today are boycotting the vote. He discussed the 29 committee meetings on the bill and the 253 experts that participated in the meetings. Speaker Edelstein announced that all coalition MKs removed their objections. All of the opposition objections were removed because the objecting MKs were not in the building.

You can read more about the content bill here: http://knessetjeremy.com/2014/03/09/electoral-reform-bill/

Government Bill passed its second reading 67-0 and third reading 67-0.
Knesset Bill passed its second reading 67-0 and third reading 6-0.

MK Hoffman (Yesh Atid) got up after the voting to thank everyone who worked on the bill.
Minister Lapid (Yesh Atid) also spoke from the podium and thanked the people who worked on the bill.
Speaker Edelstein closed the session and said they would re-convene for the presentation of the Haredi Draft Bill at 1 PM.

The only coalition MK who did not vote is Presidential candidate MK Rivlin (Likud Beitenu) who purposely decided to fly to London in order to miss vote. The 52 opposition MKs went through with their boycott.

The official Knesset protocol will show that not one MK gave a speech against the bill and not one MK voted against the bill.
Electoral Reform (for good and for bad) is complete.

The Basic Law: National Referendum will be the third of the big three to be voted on this week.

It has the least objections and requests for MK speeches.
Unlike the other two bills, this bill has no coalition objections.
The opposition decided to focus most of their efforts on the other two bills.
The bill is meant to prevent Israel from giving up her sovereign territory.

  • The National Referendum Bill will be a special election day to decide if to approve or repeal a Knesset decision to give up land that is currently under Israeli law. That applies to all of pre-1967 Israel and post-1967 areas that have been annexed such as the Golan Heights and Eastern Jerusalem.
  • The National Referendum is only implemented if the Knesset approves a decision to give up land that is currently under Israeli law. That decision is then put on hold until the results of the National Referendum.
  • 80 MKs can vote to decide against going to a National Referendum.
  • All Israeli Citizens 18 and up can vote, all other election laws apply.
  • Because it is a Basic Law it is illegal to bypass this law by a temporary measure, executive order, emergency provision, etc.
  • To change any aspect of this law or to add an amendment you must do so through an additional Basic Law, meaning a minimum of 61 MKs.
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