Category: Daily Updates


President Rivlin conducted “Day 2″ of his consultations with the remaining delegations. Kulanu and Yisrael Beitenu nominated Netanyahu. Yesh Atid did not nominate anyone. Meretz chose to nominate Herzog.

It was the kingmaker Moshe Kahlon who endorsed Netanyahu for Phase 2 earlier in the day to bring him to 61 seats. This clinched Netanyahu’s victory and took away the possibility of President Rivlin choosing Herzog or demanding a unity government. The law does not allow the President to intervene if a candidate recieves a majority. Yesh Atid decided to keep their Phase 3 options open by not nominating Herzog for Phase 2, despite promising they would nominate Herzog before the elections.

President Rivlin will formally ask Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to form his fourth government when the official results are released tomorrow or on Wedensday. Netanyahu has already started holding talks with his potential coalition partners today. It is possible that coalition negotations will go on for several weeks. The next Knesset will be sworn in next week on Tuesday March 31st. Phase 3 will be conducted after Netanyahu signs enough coalition deals to produce a majority of at least 61 MKs to approve his fourth government in Knesset.

The final tally of Phase 2, Israel’s electoral college:

Netanyahu 67 (Likud, Bayit Yehudi, Shas, UTJ, Kulanu and Yisrael Beitenu), Herzog 29 (Zionist Union, Meretz), Neither 24 (The Joint List, Yesh Atid).

My 2 cents: I’ll note that before the election I predicted a Phase 2 coalition of 66 seats for Prime Minister Netanyahu that included the above lists and many of my loyal readers disagreed with me. :)

It is unprecedented, but President Rivlin received special permission from the Central Elections Committee Chairman to begin consultations with the delegations of the ten lists elected to Knesset prior to official results. Final results that are not yet official were published on Thursday.

Six lists arrived at the President’s Residence today for “Day 1”.

Following Day 1: Netanyahu has received 51 endorsements (Likud, Bayit Yehudi, Shas and UTJ), Herzog 24 (Zionist Union), Neither 13 (The Joint List).

Tomorrow “Day 2” will begin with the last four lists (Kulanu, Yisrael Beitenu, Yesh Atid and Meretz) who will meet with President Rivlin.

President Rivlin will be allowed to officially grant the mandate of forming the next government when he receives the official results on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Despite serious charges of racism against Netanyahu, The Joint List did not recommend Zionist Union leader Herzog in Phase 2. The Joint List’s decision all but officially clinches Phase 2 for Prime Minister Netanyahu.

For those who missed the Top 20 Model’s Party-by-Party High-Low

Likud
High – Ashkelon 39.88%, Beer Sheva 37.69%, Netanya 33.54%
Low – Bnei Brak 4.57%, Tel Aviv 18.19%, Haifa 20.74%

Zionist Union
High – Kfar Saba 34.94%, 34.45% Hertzlia Tel Aviv 34.27%
Low – Bnei Brak 1.28%, Bet Shemesh 3.28%, Ashdod 8.56%

The Joint List
High – Haifa 8.27%, Tel Aviv 3.18%, Jerusalem 1.23%
Low – All others under 1%

Yesh Atid
High – Modiin 18.01%, Hertzlia 14.98%, Rishon L’Tzion 14.40%
Low – Bnei Brak 0.65%, Bet Shemesh 2.60%, Jerusalem 4.21%

Kulanu
High – Hadera 15.75%, Holon 11.98%, Rishon L’Tzion 11.44%
Low – Bnei Brak 1.15%, Bet Shemesh 3.50%, Jerusalem 4.68%

Bayit Yehudi
High – Raanana 10.91%, Petah Tikva 10.71%, Modiin 10.56%
Low – Bnei Brak 2.35%, Tel Aviv 3.36%, Hertzlia 4.16%

Shas
High – Bnei Brak 23.97%, Bet Shemesh 14.35%, Jerusalem 11.95%
Low – Modiin 1.25%, Raanana 2.06%, Haifa 2.23%

Yisrael Beitenu
High – Ashkelon 15.12%, Ashdod 13.36%, Bat Yam 12.88%
Low – Bnei Brak 0.68%, Raanana 1.48%, Tel Aviv 2.09%

UTJ
High – Bnei Brak 59.35%, Bet Shemesh 28.30%, Jerusalem 21.13%
Low – Modiin 0.58%, Holon 0.62%, Kfar Saba 0.63%

Meretz
High – Tel Aviv 13.02%, Hertzlia 6.51%, Ramat Gan 6.15%
Low – Bnei Brak 0.20%, Bet Shemessh 0.48%, Ashdod 0.75%

Party/City 2015 Seats 2015 AVG 2013 Seats AVG Tel Aviv Tel Aviv
Years 2015 2013
Overall Votes 4,209,467 3,792,742 261,344 244,901
Likud 30 23.40% 31 w/YB 23.34% 18.19% 18%
Zionist Union 24 18.67% 15+6 16.38% 34.27% 24%
The Joint List 13 10.54% 4+4+3 9.20% 3.18% 3%
Yesh Atid 11 8.81% 19 14.33% 11.55% 21%
Kulanu 10 7.49% 6.88%
Bayit Yehudi 8 6.74% 12 9.12% 3.36% 4%
Shas 7 5.73% 11 8.75% 3.90% 6%
Yisrael Beitenu 6 5.11% w/Likud w/Likud 2.09% w/Likud
UTJ 6 5.03% 7 5.16% 1.07% 1%
Meretz 5 3.93% 6 4.55% 13.02% 14%
Party/City Jerusalem Jerusalem Haifa Haifa Rishon Rishon
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 255,286 241,139 149,560 139,363 137,810 125,345
Likud 24.24% 21% 20.74% 26% 29.98% 31%
Zionist Union 9.67% 9% 25.28% 22% 22.85% 21%
The Joint List 1.23% 1% 8.27% 7% 0.06% <1%
Yesh Atid 4.21% 7% 11.25% 18% 14.40% 23%
Kulanu 4.68% 8.49% 11.44%
Bayit Yehudi 8.33% 12% 5.37% 6% 5.25% 7%
Shas 11.95% 16% 2.23% 3% 2.97% 5%
Yisrael Beitenu 2.36% w/Likud 8.03% w/Likud 6.92% w/Likud
UTJ 21.13% 22% 3.27% 3% 0.67% 1%
Meretz 3.98% 4% 4.54% 5% 2.13% 2%
Party/City Petah Tikva Petah Tikva Ashdod Ashdod Netanya Netanya
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 124,400 111,194 113,203 103,274 105,468 92,694
Likud 28.15% 29% 31.49% 36% 33.54% 34%
Zionist Union 17.81% 16% 8.56% 10% 13.82% 13%
The Joint List 0.07% <1% 0.03% <1% 0.06% <1%
Yesh Atid 11.69% 18% 7.78% 10% 10.46% 16%
Kulanu 9.52% 7.61% 11.18%
Bayit Yehudi 10.71% 13% 4.83% 7% 6.43% 11%
Shas 5.58% 7% 10.53% 17% 7.77% 11%
Yisrael Beitenu 6.72% w/Likud 13.36% w/Likud 7.99% w/Likud
UTJ 3.87% 4% 9.83% 10% 2.77% 2%
Meretz 2.00% 2% 0.75% 1% 1.46% 2%
Party/City Holon Holon Beer Sheva Beer Sheva Ramat Gan Ramat Gan
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 102,064 93,248 97,153 85,611 85,126 80,182
Likud 31.19% 31% 37.69% 38% 22.96% 23%
Zionist Union 20.12% 19% 12.24% 13% 31.15% 24%
The Joint List 0.09% <1% 0.55% <1% 0.23% <1%
Yesh Atid 12.50% 20% 7.53% 11% 14.28% 23%
Kulanu 11.98% 8.80% 9.74%
Bayit Yehudi 4.86% 6% 6.98% 12% 6.03% 7%
Shas 7.88% 11% 6.36% 13% 3.13% 4%
Yisrael Beitenu 5.49% w/Likud 12.06% w/Likud 2.55% w/Likud
UTJ 0.62% <1% 0.70% 1% 0.98% 1%
Meretz 2.13% 3% 1.40% 2% 6.15% 7%
Party/City Bnei Brak Bnei Brak Rechovot Rechovot Bat Yam Bat Yam
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 78,621 75,147 69,382 62,147 68,204 63,960
Likud 4.57% 4% 27.18% 27% 33.36% 37%
Zionist Union 1.28% 1% 20.64% 19% 14.58% 16%
The Joint List 0.02% <1% 0.15% <1% 0.18% <1%
Yesh Atid 0.65% 1% 11.77% 17% 9.27% 15%
Kulanu 1.15% 8.78% 11.19%
Bayit Yehudi 2.35% 4% 8.35% 11% 5.15% 7%
Shas 23.97% 25% 4.80% 8% 6.88% 12%
Yisrael Beitenu 0.68% w/Likud 5.26% w/Likud 12.88% w/Likud
UTJ 59.35% 60% 3.58% 4% 1.03% 1%
Meretz 0.20% <1% 3.76% 4% 1.42% 2%
Party/City Ashkelon Ashkelon Kfar Saba Kfar Saba Hertzlia Hertzlia
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 63,836 54,431 56,477 51,659 53,681 50,958
Likud 39.88% 42% 21.89% 23% 21.88% 22%
Zionist Union 9.72% 11% 34.94% 26% 34.45% 24%
The Joint List 0.08% <1% 0.19% <1% 0.19% <1%
Yesh Atid 6.60% 10% 14.32% 22% 14.98% 26%
Kulanu 8.37% 7.88% 8.54%
Bayit Yehudi 5.68% 9% 5.57% 7% 4.16% 6%
Shas 6.58% 14% 2.43% 4% 2.85% 4%
Yisrael Beitenu 15.12% w/Likud 3.39% w/Likud 2.67% w/Likud
UTJ 1.00% 1% 0.63% <1% 1.08% 1%
Meretz 0.89% 1% 5.98% 7% 6.51% 8%
Party/City Hadera Hadera Modiin Modiin Raanana Raanana
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 44,726 38,578 43,830 39,954 42,842 41,153
Likud 32.16% 34% 22.87% 23% 21.45% 19%
Zionist Union 15.86% 18% 29.06% 23% 32.95% 23%
The Joint List 0.31% <1% 0.08% <1% 0.11% <1%
Yesh Atid 9.83% 16% 18.01% 27% 14.18% 24%
Kulanu 15.75% 8.12% 6.73%
Bayit Yehudi 5.04% 8% 10.56% 12% 10.91% 14%
Shas 6.09% 9% 1.25% 2% 2.06% 3%
Yisrael Beitenu 8.38% w/Likud 2.19% w/Likud 1.48% w/Likud
UTJ 1.69% 2% 0.58% <1% 1.20% 1%
Meretz 1.94% 2% 4.84% 6% 5.47% 7%
Party/City Bet Shemesh Bet Shemesh
Years 2015 2013
Overall Votes 33,878 29,593
Likud 26.72% 23%
Zionist Union 3.28% 4%
The Joint List 0.02% <1%
Yesh Atid 2.60% 4%
Kulanu 3.50%
Bayit Yehudi 9.01% 14%
Shas 14.35% 18%
Yisrael Beitenu 3.90% w/Likud
UTJ 28.30% 28%
Meretz 0.48% 1%

Update: Party-by-Party High-Low

Likud
High – Ashkelon 39.88%, Beer Sheva 37.69%, Netanya 33.54%
Low – Bnei Brak 4.57%, Tel Aviv 18.19%, Haifa 20.74%

Zionist Union
High – Kfar Saba 34.94%, 34.45% Hertzlia Tel Aviv 34.27%
Low – Bnei Brak 1.28%, Bet Shemesh 3.28%, Ashdod 8.56%

The Joint List
High – Haifa 8.27%, Tel Aviv 3.18%, Jerusalem 1.23%
Low – All others under 1%

Yesh Atid
High – Modiin 18.01%, Hertzlia 14.98%, Rishon L’Tzion 14.40%
Low – Bnei Brak 0.65%, Bet Shemesh 2.60%, Jerusalem 4.21%

Kulanu
High – Hadera 15.75%, Holon 11.98%, Rishon L’Tzion 11.44%
Low – Bnei Brak 1.15%, Bet Shemesh 3.50%, Jerusalem 4.68%

Bayit Yehudi
High – Raanana 10.91%, Petah Tikva 10.71%, Modiin 10.56%
Low – Bnei Brak 2.35%, Tel Aviv 3.36%, Hertzlia 4.16%

Shas
High – Bnei Brak 23.97%, Bet Shemesh 14.35%, Jerusalem 11.95%
Low – Modiin 1.25%, Raanana 2.06%, Haifa 2.23%

Yisrael Beitenu
High – Ashkelon 15.12%, Ashdod 13.36%, Bat Yam 12.88%
Low – Bnei Brak 0.68%, Raanana 1.48%, Tel Aviv 2.09%

UTJ
High – Bnei Brak 59.35%, Bet Shemesh 28.30%, Jerusalem 21.13%
Low – Modiin 0.58%, Holon 0.62%, Kfar Saba 0.63%

Meretz
High – Tel Aviv 13.02%, Hertzlia 6.51%, Ramat Gan 6.15%
Low – Bnei Brak 0.20%, Bet Shemessh 0.48%, Ashdod 0.75%

Party Double Envelopes
Likud 25.65%
Zionist Union 17.71%
Bayit Yehudi 12.39%
The Joint List 12.39%
Yesh Atid 9.41%
Kulanu 8.81%
Meretz 4.56%
Shas 4.45%
Yisrael Beitenu 4%
Green Leaf 3.64%
Yachad 2.90%
UTJ 2.69%

Double envelope votes: Israeli army bases, overseas voting, specialized handicap stations, hospitals, jails and polling station committee members.

Notable MKs and former MKs who missed out on a Knesset seat

Likud – #37 Former Deputy Minister Michael Ratzon
Labor – #29 MK Moshe Mizrachi, #28 Former MK Robert Tyivayev
The Joint List – None
Yesh Atid – #12 MK Elazar Stern, #13 MK Penina Tamano, #14 MK Boaz Toporovsky, #15 MK Ruth Calderon, #16 MK Yifat Kariv, #17 MK Dov Lipman, #18 MK Ronen Hoffman
Kulanu – #12 Former MK and Kadima leader Akrem Hasoon
Bayit Yehudi – #9 MK Shuli Muaalam, #10 Deputy Minister Avi Wortzman, #13 MK Orit Struck
Shas – #8 MK Avraham Michaeli
Yisrael Beitenu – #7 MK Robert Ilatov, #11 MK Alex Miller, #12 MK Leon Litinsky, MK #14 Shimon Ochayon, #16 Former MK Moshe Matalon
UTJ – #7 MK Yaakov Asher
Meretz – #6 Former MK Mosi Raz, #9 Former MK Avshalom Vilan

 Party 2015 Seats 2015% 2013 Seats 2013%
Likud 30 23.40% 31 w/YB 23.34%
Zionist Union 24 18.67% 15+6 16.38%
The Joint List 13 10.54% 4+4+3 9.20%
Yesh Atid 11 8.81% 19 14.33%
Kulanu 10 7.49%
Bayit Yehudi 8 6.74% 12 9.12%
Shas 7 5.73% 11 8.75%
Yisrael Beitenu 6 5.11% w/Likud w/Likud
UTJ 6 5.03% 7 5.16%
Meretz 5 3.93% 6 4.55%
Yachad 0 2.97% Otzma – 0 1.76%
Kadima 2 2.09%

Interesting voter breakdown by subgroup:

2013: Right – Likud+Yisrael Beitenu+Bayit Yehudi=43

2015: Right – Likud+Yisrael Beitenu+Bayit Yehudi=44

2013: Center – Lapid+Kadima=21

2015: Center – Lapid+Kulanu=21

2013: Left – Labor+Livni+Meretz=27

2015: Left – Labor+Livni+Meretz=29

2013: Arabs – Hadash+Ra’am+Ta’al+Balad=11

2015: Arabs – Hadash+Ra’am+Ta’al+Balad=13

2013: Haredim – Shas+UTJ=18

2015: Haredim – Shas+UTJ=13

Quick Analysis:

* Right voters moved within their camp.

* Center voters with a Center-Right tendency broke from Lapid to Kahlon.

* Left voters moved within their camp.

* Arabs increased turnout thanks to united list.

* Haredim were hurt by internal voting boycotts and perhaps as much as 1.21% going to Yachad.

Candidates for Knesset Lists in English

Zionist Union – Labor + Livni Movement Party (Currently polling 1st 25.2 seats) – אמת

1 Isaac Herzog

2 Tzipi Livni

3 Shelly Yachimovitch

4 Stav Shafir

5 Isaac Shmueli

6 Omer Bar-Lev

7 Yechiel Bar

8 Amir Peretz

9 Merav Michaeli

10 Eitan Cabel

11 Manuel Trachtenberg

12 Erel Margalit

13 Mickey Rosenthal

14 Revital Swed

15 Daniel Atar

16 Yoel Hasson

17Bahlul Zuhair

18Eitan Brushi

19 Michal Biran

20 Nachman Shai

21 Ksenia Svetlova

22 Vrabin Nahmias

23 Yosef Yonah

24 Eyal Ben-Reuven

25Yael Cohen Paran

26 Saleh Saad

27 Leah Fadida

28 Robert Tivyayev

29 Moshe Mizrahi

30 Eldad Yaniv

Likud (Currently Polling 2nd 24.4 seats) – מחל

1 Benjamin Netanyahu

2 Gilad Erdan

3 Yuli Edelstein

4 Yisrael Katz

5 Miri Regev

6 Silvan Shalom

7 Boogie Ya’alon

8 Zeev Elkin

9 Danny Danon

10 Yariv Levin

11 Benny Begin

12 Tzachi Hanegbi

13 Yuval Steinitz

14 Gila Gamliel

15 Ofir Akonis

16 David Bitan

17 Chaim Katz

18 Jacky Levi

19 Yoav Kish

20 Tzipi Hotoveli

21David Amsalem

22 Zohar Makhlouf

23 Anat Berko

24 Ayub Kara

25 Nava Boker

26 Avi Dichter

27 Abraham Nagosa

28 Nurit Koren

29 Yaron Mazuz

30 Oren Hazan

Bayit Yehudi (Currently polling 3rd 14.7 seats) - טב

1 Naftali Bennett

2 Uri Ariel

3 Ayelet Shaked

4 Eli Ben-Dahan

5 Nissan Slomiansky

6 Yinon Magal

7 Moti Yogev

8 Bezalel Smotrich

9 Shuli Mualem

10 Avi Wortzman

11 Nir Orbach

12 Avi Rontzky

13 Orit Struck

14 Anat Roth

15 Ronen Shoval

16 Avi Boaron

17 Nachi Eyal

18 Moshe Solomon

19 Yehudit Shilat

20 Sarah Eliash

United Arab List (Currently polling  4th 12 seats) – וםד

1 Ayman Odeh

2 Massoud Ghanaym

3 Jamal Zahalka

4 Ahmed Tibi

5 Aida Touma-Suleiman

6 Haj Yahya Abd al-Hakim

7 Haneen Zoubi

8 Dov Khenin

9 Taleb Abu Arar

10 Jabarin Joseph

11 Basel Ghattas

12 Saadia Osama

13 Abdullah Abu Marouf

14 Azbargh Juma

15 H’romi Said

Yesh Atid (Currently polling 5th 9.4 seats) – פה

1 Yair Lapid

2 Shai Piron

3 Yael German

4 Meir Cohen

5 Yaakov Perry

6 Ofer Shelach

7 Chaim Yellin

8 Karin Elharar

9 Yoel Razvozov

10 Aliza Lavie

11 Mickey Levy

12 Elazar Stern

Koolanu (Currently polling 6th 7.7 seats) – כ

1 Moshe Kahlon

2 Yoav Galant

3 Eli Elalouf

4 Michael Oren

5 Rachel Azaria

6 Tali Ploskov

7 Yifat Biton

8 Eliahu Cohen

9 Roei Volkmann

10 Merav Ben Ari

UTJ/Yahadut HaTorah (Currently polling 7th 7.1 seats) – ג

1 Yaakov Litzman

2 Moshe Gafni

3 Meir Porush

4 Uri Maklev

5 Eliezer Moses

6 Yisrael Eichler

7 Yaakov Asher

8 Eliezer Sorotzkin

Shas (Currently polling 7th 7.1 seats) – שס

1 Aryeh Deri

2 Yitzack Cohen

3 Meshulam Nahari

4 Yakov Margi

5 David Azoulay

6 Yoav Ben-Zur

7 Yitzhak Vaknin

8 Avraham Michaeli

Yisrael Beitenu (Currently polling 9th 5.4 seats) – ל

1 Avigdor Lieberman

2 Orly Levy

3 Sofa Landver

4 Ilan Shohat

5 Sharon Gal

6 Hamad Amar

7 Robert Ilatov

Meretz (Currently polling 10th 5.3 seats) – מרץ

1 Zahava Gal-On

2 Ilan Gilon

3 Isawiyya Ferig

4 Michal Rosin

5 Tamar Zandberg

6 Mossi Raz

Yachad (Currently polling 11th 3.3 seats) – זך

1 Eli Yishai

2 Yoni Chetboun

3 Aish Makhlouf

4 Baruch Marzel

5 Sasson Trbolsi

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #5 (week of Dec 28-Jan 3 2014) of 8 polls from 6 polling companies (2 Panels, 2 Smith, 1 Dialog, 1 Teleseker, 1 Midgam, 1 Maagar Mochot, 0 Geocartography, Sarid, TRI, New Wave)

 

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

 

1st 23.6 (23.2) [21] Labor+Livni

2nd 23.2 (22.6) [18] Likud

3rd 16.0 (15.7) [11] Bayit Yehudi

4th 09.1 (09.5) [19] Yesh Atid

5th 09.0 (08.8) [–] Koolanu

6th 07.5 (06.8) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

7th 06.7 (08.0) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

8th 06.5 (06.5) [06] Meretz

9th 05.8 (05.3) [10] Shas

10th 3.3 (03.6) [02] Ha’am Itanu (Yishai+Chetboun)

11th 11.0 (10.7) [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad (not all polls have them united)

12th 00.1 (00.0) [02] Kadima

 

69.6 (70.0) [61] Right-Religious (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)

50.3 (50.0) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

 

Changes from week 4 to week 5:

UTJ moves up to 6th, Yisrael Beitenu drops to 7th.

Largest Gains: UTJ gained .7, Likud gained .6 and Shas gained .5.

Biggest Losses: Yisrael Beitenu dropped 1.3 seats, Yesh Atid lost 0.4, Ha’am Itanu dropped 0.3.

 

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 5:

1 – Labor-Livni 23.6, Likud 23.2, Bayit Yehudi 16.

The three largest parties went up again this week, at the expense of the center. Prime Minister Netanyahu is encouraged by increasing poll numbers, however the average of the parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition bloc is now under 70 (69.6) for the first time. Bayit Yehudi remains the only other party in double digits.

2 – Likud Primary Results.

The Likud moved to the center in the 2015 primaries. Former Kadima MK Avi Dichter bumps right-wing MKs Moshe Feiglin & Tzipi Hotoveli off the list and MKs Danny Danon & Yariv Levin have been bumped down the list. The Likud’s Top 20 will only have 2 female candidates and no one under the age of 40. Likud lost members over the last two years and turnout was lower this time as well. The only candidates in realistic spots who improved in terms of actual votes were Speaker Edelstein, and female MKs Regev and Gamliel.

The winner of the primary is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who is very happy with the results. The new Electoral Reform Bill will go into effect and limit the next government to 18 ministers and 4 deputy ministers.  Just like last time, expect Netanyahu to ignore the actual order of the list and to appoint whoever he wants for Likud’s top positions in the next government. This time there will be less to go around.

3 – Yisrael Beitenu dropped 1.3 seats this week, lost 4.3 seats over last four weeks.

The corruption scandal is still in the headlines and Foreign Minister Liberman is still pivoting towards the center. Yisrael Beitenu has 13 seats in the current Knesset and is now averaging less than UTJ in the polls. Last week Yisrael Beitenu averaged 8 seats, 8 seats was their high this week. Momentum is not on their side.

4 – Shas goes up following Deri’s resignation

Aryeh Deri resigned from Shas and Shas gained as a result, at the expense of Eli Yishai. Initially Deri was not expected to return to Shas for another 3 weeks or so. Internal polls reveal Shas under former #3 Ariel Attias would score no differently than Shas under Deri. Expect Deri to return to Shas this week.

5 – Week 6 Preview

Expect Labor & Likud to keep gaining ground at the expense of Yisrael Beitenu. Expect scenario polling on who Netanyahu should use his reserved spots for. Expect increased focus on Labor & Bayit Yehudi primaries. Polling the United Arab List should get easier soon. Hadash’s Central Committee approved (under their own conditions) a joint United Arab List with Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad. Expect more drama in Yisrael Beitenu and Shas.

Likud 2015 List:

Number-Name (previous ranking in 2013 &2009)

1 – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (#1 in 2013 & 2009)

2 – Minister Gilad Erdan (#3 in 2013 & 2009)

3 – Speaker Yuli Edelstein (#12 in 2013 & 2009)

4 – Minister Yisrael Katz (#5 in 2013, #11 in 2009)

5 – MK Miri Regev (#14 in 2013, #27 in 2009)

6 – Minister Silvan Shalom (#4 in 2013, #7 in 2009)

7 – Minister Moshe Yaalon (#8 in 2013 & 2009)

8 – Former Deputy Minister Zeev Elkin (#9 in 2013, #20 in 2009)

9 – Former Deputy Minister Danny Danon (#6 in 2013, #24 in 2009)

10 – MK Yariv Levin (#11 in 2013, #21 in 2009)

11 – Netanyahu Reserved Spot

12 – Deputy Minister Tzachi Hanegbi (#17 in 2013, Kadima MK in 2009)

13 – Minister Yuval Steinitz (#16 in 2013, #9 in 2009)

14 – Former Deputy Minister Gila Gamliel (#20 in 2013, #19 in 2009)

15 – Deputy Minister Ofir Akunis (#19 in 2013, #26 in 2009)

16 – New District Position

17 – MK Haim Katz (#13 in 2013, #14 in 2009)

18 – New District Position

19 – New District Position

20 – Former Minister Avi Dichter (#59 in 2013, Kadima MK in 2009)

Other notables

24 – Former Deputy Minister Ayoub Kara (#39 in 2013, #23 in 2009) – Spot reserved for non-Jew.

26 – Deputy Minister Tzipi Hotovely (#10 in 2013, #18 in 2009)

36 – MK Moshe Feiglin (#15 in 2013, #36 in 2009)

37 – Former Deputy Minister Michael Ratzon (sat out 2013, #37 in 2009)

_______________________________________________________________________________

Voting

Name – 2014 Votes (2012 votes)

Erdan – 38,517 (44,875)

Edelstein – 35,893 (29,138)

Y Katz – 35,510 (41,662)

Regev – 33,385 (27,999)

Shalom – 29,808 (41,957)

Ya’alon – 27,973 (34,458)

Elkin – 25,879 (31,060)

Danon – 24,797 (36,881)

Levin – 24,258 (29,381)

Hanegbi – 24,146 (23,561)

Steinitz – 23,525 (26,109)

Gamliel –23,093 (21,843)

Akunis – 22,856 (22,898)

C Katz – 22,575 (29,035)

Dichter – 20,892 (21,455)

Hotovely – 20,837 (28,133)

Feiglin – 14,581 (26,472)

Kara – 13,963 (12,858)

Ratzon – 10,731

Note: 38 candidates ran for Likud ‘national list’. I am only providing results for the top 19 candidates.

_______________________________________________________________________________

Analysis

The Likud moved to the center in the 2015 primaries. Former Kadima MK Avi Dichter bumps right-wing MKs Moshe Feiglin & Tzipi Hotoveli off the list and MKs Danny Danon was bumped down the list. The Likud’s Top 20 will only have 2 female candidates and no one under the age of 40. Likud lost members over the last two years and turnout was lower this time as well. The only candidates in realistic spots who improved in terms of actual votes were Speaker Edelstein, MK Hanegbi and female MKs Regev and Gamliel.

The winner of the primary is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who is very happy with the results. The new Electoral Reform Bill will go into effect and limit the next government to 18 ministers and 4 deputy ministers.  Just like last time, expect Netanyahu to ignore the actual order of the list and to appoint whoever he wants for Likud’s top positions in the next government. This time there will be less to go around.

* Updated to reflect changes in voting after recount of Jan 4 2015.

Today is the Likud Primaries.
No matter what the results are, the press will determine that the party has gone to the right, as they do every election.
There are 38 people running for the national list and each Likud member must vote for 11.
So, I thought it would be a good idea to present the list of the 11 most right-wing candidates.
This way we can all note how some of them did not get in and that the Likud did not “elect the most right-wing candidates possible”.

The list:

102 אדלשטיין יולי יואל
103 אלקין זאב
105 ארדן גלעד
110 דנון דני
116 חוטובלי ציפי
121 לוין יריב
125 מלכה ישעיהו שי
129 פייגלין משה זלמן
133 קרא איוב
135 רצון מיכאל
138 שטרן שבח

 

 

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