Category: Knesset


Panels conducted a poll of 507 people with a 3.4% margin of error that was broadcast by a Maariv journalist on Radio Dec 18 2014. The poll was conducted Dec 17. Additional results were published on Dec 19 in Maariv & Jerusalem Post. Additionally, they conducted a scenario poll with a joint Kahlon-Lapid ticket.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

23 [21] Labor-Livni

21 [18] Likud

16 [11] Bayit Yehudi

10 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [–] Koolanu (Kahlon)

08 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [06] Meretz

05 [04] Hadash

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

04 [10] Shas

04 [02] Maran (Yishai)

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

 

70 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

Scenario Poll: Joint Lapid+Kahlon ticket

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

23 [21] Labor-Livni

22 [19] Yesh Atid + Koolanu (Kahlon)

20 [18] Likud

16 [11] Bayit Yehudi

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

06 [06] Meretz

05 [04] Hadash

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

04 [10] Shas

04 [02] Maran (Yishai)

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

Additional Questions:
Do you want Netanyahu as Prime Minister after the elections?

58% No, 34% Yes, 8% Don’t know

If Netanyahu is not the next Prime Minister, who would you like to see?

28% Herzog, 26% No one, 10% Bennett, 10% Livni, 9% Lapid, 6% Lieberman, 6% Don’t know, 5% Kahlon

Did Tzipi Livni’s TV appearance on “State of the Nation” change your opinion of voting for a joint Labor-Livni ticket?

47% No change, 42% Lowered chance I will vote for Labor-Livni, 6% Increased chance I will vote for Labor-Livni, 5% No opinion

Will you vote on March 17 2015?

72% Yes, 17% Maybe, 6% Don’t know, 5% No

Why are you not voting?

57% Elections won’t change anything, 21% No one I want to vote for, 16% Doesn’t interest me, 6% Netanyahu will be Prime Minister again anyways so it doesn’t matter

 

Smith conducted a poll that was published by Globes on Dec 18 2014. The poll was conducted Dec 17.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

23 [21] Labor-Livni

23 [18] Likud

16 [11] Bayit Yehudi

09 [–] Koolanu (Kahlon)

09 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

08 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [10] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [07] Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad

06 [06] Meretz

05 [04] Hadash

00 [02] Maran (Yishai)

00 [02] Kadima

 

72 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

48 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

Additional Question:
Who is more suitable to serve as next Prime Minister?

39% Netanyahu, 35% Herzog, 26% Neither

Dialog conducted a poll of 505 people with a 4.2% margin of error that was published by Haaretz on Dec 17 2014. The poll was conducted on Dec 16. Additionally, Dialog conducted a scenario poll with Yesh Atid & Kahlon on a joint ticket. This is the 5th of the last 6 polls conducted where the joint Labor-Livni ticket does not receive more than Likud.  In the scenario poll, Kahlon running with Lapid in the Center-Left-Arab bloc reaches 60.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

21 [21] Labor-Livni

21 [18] Likud

16 [11] Bayit Yehudi

12 [–] Koolanu (Kahlon)

11 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [06] Meretz

05 [04] Hadash

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

04 [10] Shas

03 [02] Maran (Yishai)

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

 

72 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

48 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

*Note Electoral threshold is 3.25% (4 seats)

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [19] Yesh Atid & Koolanu (Kahlon)

21 [18] Likud

20 [21] Labor-Livni

16 [11] Bayit Yehudi

09 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

08 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

06 [06] Meretz

05 [04] Hadash

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [10] Shas

03 [02] Maran (Yishai)

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

60 [61] Right-Religious-without Kahlon

60 [59] Center-Left-Arab-Kahlon

*Note Electoral threshold is 3.25% (4 seats)

 

Geocartography conducted a poll that was broadcast on Israeli Radio on Dec 16 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

23 [18] Likud

21 [21] Labor-Livni

16 [11] Bayit Yehudi

11 [–] Koolanu (Kahlon)

10 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

09 [19] Yesh Atid

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [06] Meretz

06 [10] Shas

05 [04] Hadash

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

04 [–] Strong Israel

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

00 [02] Maran (Yishai)

 

73 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

47 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

Panels conducted a poll with a 4.3% margin of error that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on Dec 16 2014. The first poll to have the Eli Yishai party since the announcement, it also polls Bayit Yehudi & Tekuma separately. Please note the change in current Knesset seats following the latest splits.

Panels also conducted a poll with Bayit Yehudi & Tekuma together – 16 seats.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

22 [21] Labor-Livni

22 [18] Likud

15 [08] Bayit Yehudi

10 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [––] Kulanu (Kachlon)

09 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [06] Meretz

05 [04] Hadash

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

04 [10] Shas

04 [02] Yishai Party

00 [03] Balad

00 [03] Tekuma

00 [02] Kadima

 

71 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

49 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

Additional Questions:

From the following list of people, who is most fit to be Prime Minister?

29% Netanyahu, 19% Herzog, 12% Bennett, 7% Livni, 6% Lapid, 4% Liberman, 2% Kachlon, 14% Don’t know/No one

How would you define Tzipi Livni’s performance on the “State of the Nation” TV show?

33% Embarrassing, 32% Crossed red lines, 18% Funny, 11% Legitimate
(Among Labor/Livni voters: 37% Funny, 29% Legitimate, 24% Negative answers)

Do you think Herzog did the right thing by signing an agreement with Livni for a Prime Minister rotation ?

53% No, 32% Yes
(Among Labor/Livni voters: 75% Herzog did the right thing)

Where do you place Avigdor Liberman on the political map between right and left?

44% Right, 30% Center-Right, 8% Center, 10% Center-Left, 2% Left

In your eyes is Avigdor Liberman suitable to serve as Prime Minister?

78% No, 20% Yes

Do you plan on voting?

75% Yes, 16% Maybe, 5% No

TRI conducted a poll of 501 people with a 4.5% margin of error that was published by Bizportal and Tapuz on Dec 15 2014.

How do you define yourself: Are you right, center or left?

45.7% Right, 35.9% Center, 8.4% Left, 10% Don’t identify with right-center-left

* Interesting stat: Age group of 18-44 right, 45-54 center, 55+ left.

From the following candidates who is your preference for the position of Prime Minister?

25.3% Herzog, 24.8 Netanyahu, 13.4% Bennett, 8.9% Kachlon, 5.6% Liberman, 5.4% Lapid, 1.4% Gal-On, 15.4% Don’t know

Panels conducted a poll of 503 people with a margin of error of 4.5% that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on Dec 15 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

22 [21] Labor-Livni

22 [18] Likud

16 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

10 [–] Kulanu (Kachlon)

09 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [06] Meretz

06 [11] Shas

05 [04] Hadash

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

 

72 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

48 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

From the following list of people, which one would you like to see as Prime Minister after elections?

30% Netanyahu, 23% Don’t know, 21% Herzog, 11% Bennett, 4% Kachlon, 4% Livni, 4% Lapid, 3% Liberman

* Additional questions from the poll will be broadcast later in the day and I will add them.

* First poll taken after Livni’s TV “meltdown”

Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #2 (week of Dec 7-Dec 13 2014) of 7 polls from 4 polling companies (3 Panels, 1 Geocartography, 1 Dialog, 1 Smith, 1 Midgam, 0 for Maagar Mochot, Teleseker, New Wave, Sarid):

(Last Week in brackets), current Knesset seats in [brackets]

1st 22.2 (16.8) [21] Labor+LIvni

2nd 21.2 (23.6) [18] Likud

3rd 15.7 (16.6) [12] Bayit Yehudi

4th 10.2 (09.9) [–] Kulanu

5th 09.5 (11.0) [13] Yisrael Beitenu

6th 09.0 (09.8) [19] Yesh Atid

7th 08.2 (07.8) [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

8th 07.7 (07.6) [11] Shas

9th 05.8 (06.8) [06] Meretz

10th 10.0 (10.1) [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad *

11th 00.0 (.01) [02] Kadima

 

73.5 (76.4) [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

46.5 (43.6) [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition Zionist Camp-Yesh Atid-Meretz-Arabs)

* I am averaging Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad together because 3 of the polls decided to poll them together, even though they haven’t agreed yet on their joint list.

Changes from week 1 to week 2:

Labor (w/addition of Livni) jumps to 1st place, as Likud drops to 2nd place & Bayit Yehudi to 3rd.

Kulanu moves up to 4th place and Yisrael Beitenu falls to 5th place.

Largest Gains: Labor-Livni gained 5.4 seats, UTJ gained .4 and Kulanu gained .3

Biggest Losses: Likud dropped 2.4 seats, Yisrael Beitenu lost 1.5 seats, Meretz lost 1 seat.

 

Party Breakdown (last week in brackets)

1st: Labor-Livni: High – 24 (17), Low – 18 (12)

2nd: Likud: High – 25 (30), Low – 20 (21)

3rd: Bayit Yehudi: High – 18 (18), Low – 11 (15)

4th: Kachlon: High – 13 (13), Low – 9 (5)

5th: Yisrael Beitenu: High – 11 (14), Low – 8 (9)

6th: Yesh Atid: High – 10 (11), Low- 8 (7)

7th: UTJ: High – 11 (8), Low – 7 (7)

8th: Shas: High – 10 (9), Low – 6 (6)

9th: Meretz: High – 6 (8), Low – 5 (5)

Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition): High – 78 (84), Low – 71 (70)

Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition): High – 49 (50), Low – 42 (36)

Knesset Jeremy Analysis – Week 2:

1 – Labor-Livni joint ticket provides Anti-BB coalition with momentum. Overall the Center-Left bloc gained 2.9 seats, however a considerable amount of Labor’s increase of 5.4 seats comes at the expense of the other members of the bloc (Meretz, Yesh Atid & Arabs).

2 – This was not a good polling week for Prime Minister Netanyahu, however there is a silver lining. Despite the initial polling success of the Labor-Livni ticket, BB’s possible coalition partners remain with a solid 73.5 seats, compared to the 61 they share today.

3 – Kachlon’s new party has a name – Kulanu. The list and platform are still not clear, but Kulanu is now in double digits and averages as the 4th largest party.

4 – Polling before the 47-days to election mark is usually influenced by scenario polls, rumors and possible splits and/or alliances. Week 1 was polling under the shadow of the probable Labor-Livni alliance. Week 2 was polling under the shadow of the probable split in Shas along with various rumors regarding a possible split in Bayit Yehudi. Week 3 will probably be polling under the shadow of MK Eli Yishai’s political options, Shaul Mofaz’s political future and possible additions to the Kulanu list.

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast on Galay Yisrael Radio and published on NRG on Dec 12 2014.

Panels conducted an additional scenario poll with a joint Likud-Bayit Yehudi ticket.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]                                    

24 [21] Labor-Livni

20 [18] Likud

17 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

10 [–] Kulanu (Kachlon)

09 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [11] Shas

06 [06] Meretz

05 [04] Hadash

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

 

71 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

49 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

Scenario Poll: Joint Likud-Bayit Yehudi List

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

39 [30] Likud-Bayit Yehudi

26 [21] Labor-Livni

09 [19] Yesh Atid

09 [–] Kulanu (Kachlon)

08 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [06] Meretz

05 [04] Hadash

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

 

70 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

Geocartography conducted a poll that was broadcast on Israeli Radio on Dec 12 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [18] Likud

18 [21] Labor-Livni

12 [–] Kulanu (Kachlon)

11 [12] Bayit Yehudi

11 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

10 [11] Shas

09 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

08 [19] Yesh Atid

06 [06] Meretz

10 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al, Balad

00 [02] Kadima

 

78 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)

42 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)

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