Midgam conducted a poll that was broadcast by Channel 2 on Dec 2 2014.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
22 [18] Likud
17 [12] Bayit Yehudi
13 [15] Labor
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad
10 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
10 [–] New Kachlon Party
09 [19] Yesh Atid
09 [11] Shas
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [06] Meretz
04 [06] Movement
00 [02] Kadima
76 [61] Right-Religious
44 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Additional Questions:
Are you for or against early elections?
55% Against, 38% For
Who is responsible for early elections?
39% Netanyahu, 30% Lapid, 23% Both
Jeremy, do you have any insights into how polls estimate turnout? are they based on a sample of likely voters, past voters or all eligible voters? I’m thinking of Gallup’s blunders in the 2012 American election where their turnout assumptions blew their predictions.
Sigh. Sorry to see this going to elections. I had hoped this government would last longer. Why is Strong Israel going to run on their own? They have no chance – does Bayit Yehudi simply not want any part of them?
Btw, where is Haim Amsalem? Is he going to be running with anybody?
I think he’s with Likud. (Or at least, trying to get a reasonable seat in their list)
http://tinyurl.com/k3m9a42
It was a historically productive Knesset with the Referendum Bill, the Election Law, and the Service/Draft bill, but it always seemed like the clock was ticking. I get the feeling that the next coalition will simply include every right/religious party which will be more stable. Or it will be the right/religious minus Kachlon depending on his actual support and platform. BY, IB, Shas, and UTJ may prefer a smaller coalition in order to get more cabinet positions and increase their power. But it would be risky for Netanyahu to not include Kachlon given his personal popularity. BY and Shas want the same portfolios (Housing, Religious Affairs) so I wonder if they will agree how to divvy them up before the election. Kachlon might want the Ministry of Industry/Trade/Labor instead of the thankless job as Finance Minister. If BY ends up with significantly more seats, they might demand another portfolio- Infrastructure? Internal Affairs? Justice Minister?
They are going to be limited to 18 cabinet ministers+ 4 deputy ministers. Several existing portfolios have to be combined/eliminated due to the change in the law. Something like Culture and Sport seems like a prime candidate to get the ax; it can be split between Tourism and Education. Ministry of Internal Affairs could get combined with Infrastructure/Transportation, Public Security, and Communications to form a major cabinet position in which case it will be a major prize. Pensioner’s Affairs could be combined with Health or Welfare. And so on.
So will Kahlon run with his own FUTURE party or is he saying things and coming forward with “new” ideas, implying that he has political strength and power to bring with him to a party offering him a top seat at its list?
I know this web page provides quality based articles or reviews and other material, is there any other site which presents these stuff in quality?
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