Midgam conducted two Kachalon scenario polls on April 8th 2014 that was broadcast by Channel 10 News.

The polls use the new threshold (3.25%).

First poll is with Likud Beitenu together:

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [31] Likud Beitenu

14 [15] Labor

13 [12] Bayit Yehudi

12 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [–] New Kachalon Party

08 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [06] Movement

12 [12] New Hadash- Ra’am-Ta’al-Balad Party

00 [02] Kadima
60 [61] Right-Religious

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab


Second poll with Likud and Beitenu separate:


Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [20] Likud

14 [15] Labor

13 [12] Bayit Yehudi

11 [19] Yesh Atid

11 [–] New Kachalon Party

08 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [11] Beitenu

04 [06] Movement

12 [12] New Hadash- Ra’am-Ta’al-Balad Party

00 [02] Kadima
60 [61] Right-Religious

49 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Likud is not taking a hit with the probable Kachalon return to politics. Although, if they run separately, Beitenu drops to 5 seats which is close to the new threshold he helped push through. Irony, huh? Labor is the real loser of the Kachalon return and barely keeps possession of second place. Many Israelis identify with Kachalon’s economic positions and Herzog’s emphasis on the diplomatic issues means little to many Israelis who care more about their daily lives. Kachalon is also more to the right when it comes to diplomatic/defense/national security issues, so this is a victory for the right in disguise. Yesh Atid does not suffer any further from a new player fighting over the centrist vote, although I expect that to change. Meretz who had enjoyed a recent bump loses a handful of seats to Kachalon as well. Shas keeps going down. Livni’s Movement Party actually passes the threshold. With the new threshold, only Kadima fails to pass it. Although things might change down the road, taking this one poll for what it is if I were Netanyahu, I might be happy to see a Kachalon Party.

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