Archive for January 16, 2013


Teleseker conducted a poll for 500 people for Walla that was published Jan 16 2013

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
18 [08] Labor
15 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
11 [---] Yesh Atid
10 [10] Shas
06 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [21] Kadima
03 [04] Hadash
03 [03] Balad
02 [01] Am Shalem
00 [02] Strong Israel
00 [05] Independence (not running)

67 [65] Right-Religious
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy 2009 Election Poll Analysis

12 lists were elected in 2009.

10 polling companies conducted 11 polls (one company took out two) in the last 2 days that polling was allowed ahead of the Israeli election.

Below is a table of the top 6 parties.

Polling   Company/Party Kadima Likud YB Labor Shas UTJ Error Rate
Actual Results 28 27 15 13 11 5 0
Correct Guesses 0 of 10 2 of 10 0 of 10 1 of 10 1 of 10 6 of 10 10 of 10
Panels 25 26 18 14 10 5 9
Maagar Mochot 24 27 18 13 10 6 9
Dialog 1 25 27 18 14 9 6 10
Dialog 2 25 27 19 14 9 6 11
Smith 23 26 17.5 15.5 10 5 12
Gal Hadash 24 30 17 16 9 5 14
Midgam (Meno Gava) 23 28 19 16 10 5 14
Teleseker 23 26 19 17 10 5 15
Shvakim Panorama 21 25 16 16 11 7 15
Geocartography 22.5 26 20.5 15.5 10 5 15.5
Dahaf 23 25 19 16 10 6 16

Error Rate: How many seats they were off in total

Findings: Panels and Maagar Mochot tied with lowest error rate of 9 seats among the 6 largest parties vs Mina Tzemach’s Dahaf which had the highest error rate of 16 seats.

Polling of the 6 smaller parties proved more difficult. Ra’am-Ta’al, Hadash, National Union, Jewish Home, Meretz and Balad all received either 3 or 4 seats and gathered between 114,000 to 83,000 votes overall. Maagar Mochot was one of the polling companies that got things very wrong when it came to the smaller parties.

Overall, my conclusion stands that Menachem Lazar’s Panels is the most trusted polling company and Mina Tzemeach’s Dahaf is the most overrated.

Mano Geva poll conducted for Channel 1 that was broadcast on Jan 15 2013

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17 [08] Labor
14 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
12 [---] Yesh Atid
11 [10] Shas
09 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
04 [03] Balad
02 [21] Kadima
02 [02] Strong Israel
00 [01] Am Shalem
00 [05] Independence (not running)

66 (64 without Strong Israel) [65] Right-Religious
57 (55 without Kadima) [55] Center-Left-Arab
(Poll come out to 123 seats)

Dahaf poll conducted for Channel 2 that was broadcast on Jan 15 2013

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17 [08] Labor
12 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
11 [10] Shas
11 [---] Yesh Atid
09 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
02 [21] Kadima
02 [02] Strong Israel
00 [01] Am Shalem
00 [05] Independence (not running)

64 [65] Right-Religious
56 [55] Center-Left-Arab

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